Data covering October 7–13 show that the river level at Jowhar increased by 2.22 metres in one week, climbing from 2.48 metres to 4.70 metres.

The latest reading places the river just 30 centimetres below the moderate flood-risk threshold of five metres and 55 centimetres below the high-risk mark of 5.25 metres.

Although the river has risen rapidly, the rate of increase appears to be easing. According to the report, the level rose by about 50 centimetres on October 4, compared with an increase of 20 centimetres by October 7.

The rising water comes as Somalia enters the October–December Deyr rainy season, a period when heavy rainfall can trigger flooding in riverine communities and low-lying areas.

Concerns have increased over the possibility of El Niño-related weather patterns bringing above-average rainfall to parts of the country.

FAO previously warned that some areas of central and southern Somalia could face a probability of up to 90% of receiving above-normal seasonal rainfall.

The Juba and Shabelle river basins were identified as areas requiring particular attention.

FAO-SWALIM’s latest outlook, which uses the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System, anticipates moderate to heavy rainfall across extensive areas, including Somaliland, Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan, as well as inland parts of central Somalia.

Rain is also expected in sections of the Ethiopian highlands, where precipitation can significantly affect river levels downstream in Somalia.

Heavy rainfall in Ethiopia can send floodwater into the Juba and Shabelle river systems, sometimes days after the rain has fallen upstream.

FAO has previously urged authorities and humanitarian organisations to monitor rainfall in the highlands alongside river measurements inside Somalia, allowing them to prepare for potential flood surges before they reach vulnerable communities.

While the Shabelle at Jowhar is approaching its flood-risk threshold, measurements from other monitoring points indicate different conditions along the river.

At Beledweyne, the water level stood at four metres after fluctuating earlier in the month. It reached 4.16 metres on October 3 before dropping to 3.78 metres two days later.

The latest reading remains 2.50 metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold of 6.50 metres.

The level at Beledweyne is also 1.90 metres lower than it was on the same date last year and approximately half a metre below the long-term average for early October.

At Deefow, the river remained relatively stable at 2.70 metres, compared with 2.73 metres a week earlier. This is still 3.80 metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold.

Bulo Burti recorded a more substantial weekly rise of 62 centimetres, bringing the river to 3.20 metres. Despite the increase, the level remains 3.30 metres below the moderate flood-risk mark.

Measurements along the Juba River have been comparatively steady. At Dollow, the river rose from 2.54 metres to 2.64 metres over the week, remaining 1.86 metres below its moderate flood threshold of 4.50 metres.

At Luuq, the level changed only slightly, increasing from 2.34 metres to 2.36 metres. The river remains more than three metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold at that monitoring station.

Some areas have already received substantial rainfall early in October. SWALIM data show that Bardhere in Gedo region recorded 93 millimetres during the first five days of the month, while Galkayo received 50 millimetres.

Both locations exceeded their typical rainfall totals for the entire month within those first five days.

However, rainfall has been unevenly distributed. Rain has extended across areas from eastern Gedo through Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan into central Somalia, while much of the Juba Valley, Lower Juba and coastal parts of Lower Shabelle have remained largely dry.

The forecast points to light to moderate rainfall in parts of Bay and Gedo and along the Lower Juba coast. By contrast, Middle Juba, inland areas of Lower Juba and sections of Lower Shabelle are expected to receive limited rain.

Even where local rainfall is low, riverine communities may remain vulnerable because water flowing from upstream catchments can raise river levels far downstream.

The latest warnings follow concerns that the 2026 Deyr season could bring serious flooding if strong El Niño conditions coincide with above-normal rainfall.

FAO has cited 1997 and 2023 as examples of years with comparable climate conditions, while stressing that these historical events do not determine what will happen this season.

Both years were associated with severe flooding in Somalia. The 2023 floods displaced large numbers of people, damaged infrastructure and destroyed crops and livestock. Historical data cited by FAO indicate that the 1997 floods killed more than 2,300 people.

The potential consequences make early preparation particularly important for communities living near rivers and in low-lying areas.

Authorities and humanitarian organisations are being urged to use the latest forecasts and river measurements to strengthen embankments, identify safe locations, prepare evacuation routes and position emergency supplies before water levels reach dangerous levels.

With the Shabelle at Jowhar approaching the moderate flood-risk threshold, continued monitoring will be essential in the coming days.

The extent of the threat will depend on rainfall over Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands, as well as how quickly water levels change at the country’s river monitoring stations.

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The dispute reportedly stemmed from an appointment made by the agency’s Head of Investigations, Abdi-Qafar Ahmed Hasan, who deployed a new officer to the investigation unit at the Abdiaziz facility.

This move sparked contention because the newly assigned officer arrived while an incumbent officer was already stationed in the investigative role.

According to incoming reports, the situation created a deadlock regarding reporting lines and administrative authority within the center.

The friction ultimately escalated to the point where the Director General of the Immigration and Citizenship Agency, Hussein Idow, intervened, visiting the Abdiaziz facility yesterday afternoon to hear out the conflicting parties and seek a resolution to the dispute.

Sources indicate that the facility’s manager informed the Director General that he would not accept what he termed an unlawful exertion of authority interfering with the administration of the investigation unit, insisting that appointments and center management are governed by established procedures and protocols.

Emerging reports also suggest that Director General Hussein Idow departed from the Immigration Agency’s Abdiaziz branch office, though official confirmation is still pending.

This event coincides with a period during which the Immigration and Citizenship Agency is experiencing internal disputes regarding operations and administration.

The standoff at the Abdiaziz facility has raised numerous questions regarding the hierarchy of official authorities and the procedures governing staff appointments within the agency.

The Abdiaziz branch is among the vital locations where the residents of Mogadishu access passport services and other travel-related assistance.

Consequently, any friction disrupting the center’s administration risks impacting the services delivered to the public.

Citizens seeking services have also raised complaints concerning the processing of passports, particularly regarding queues, service-delivery workflows, and extra administrative fees reported by some individuals.

Attention is now focused on the response of the Immigration and Citizenship Agency regarding the events at the Abdiaziz center, the rationale behind deploying the new officer, and institutional jurisdictions over staff appointments across passport facilities.

Furthermore, it remains essential for the agency to clarify reports concerning the departure of the Director General from the branch and whether this relates to the administrative friction witnessed in recent days.

To date, no official statement has been fully released by the Immigration and Citizenship Agency detailing the root causes of the dispute or the measures taken.

This development consequently intensifies scrutiny over internal governance within the Immigration and Citizenship Agency and whether leadership friction might impair critical public services provided to Somali citizens.

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These families, most of whom depended on livestock herding, farming and fishing for their livelihoods, said the disaster caused by the rains and floods severely damaged their way of life, forcing them to flee the areas where they lived.

Some of the displaced said the floods swept away the livestock they herded, while the farms they depended on were also damaged.

Fishing families likewise said they lost or had damaged the equipment they used for their work.

These people are now living in displacement camps, where they say there is a severe shortage of food, clean water and other basic services.

Some of those living in the camps said they sometimes receive limited assistance, but that it is not enough to meet the needs of the large number of families there.

The biggest problem facing these families is that they have lost the resources they depended on for their daily livelihoods.

Some of the livestock they herded died in the floods, while the farms they cultivated were damaged by the rains and flooding.

Fishing families are also facing difficult conditions, since fishing was one of the most important sources of their daily livelihood.

The crisis caused by the displacement has also affected the children of these families.

Many students accompanying their families are now missing out on the schooling they had previously been attending.

The families said their children have been without education since they were displaced from Ceelgaal, which they said could affect their children’s education and future.

The displacement has kept children away from the schools they used to attend, as families prioritize securing food, water and shelter.

The displaced said they want assistance to return to the areas from which they were displaced, if living and security conditions allow.

They said they lack the financial means to restart their lives, particularly since they lost the livestock, farms and work equipment they depended on.

The families also called for urgent support in food, water, shelter and other basic services, until a lasting solution is found.

A complaint regarding the situation of these families was forwarded to officials of the Puntland regional government, with the displaced calling on the administration to find a solution to their situation.

The families want at least resettlement and support to be provided to help them rebuild their daily lives, since it has proven difficult for them to restart on their own the things their livelihoods depended on.

The situation facing these families illustrates the impact that rains and floods can have on people whose livelihoods depend on livestock, farming and fishing.

Without adequate assistance and support, these families face additional risks related to food shortages, lack of water, lack of shelter, and children remaining out of school for extended periods.

Local residents are therefore calling for an urgent assessment of the displaced families’ situation and for adequate assistance to be delivered, while also stressing the importance of planning resettlement and how to support people in recovering the economic resources they depended on.

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Government Spokesperson Charles Owino said ministries, departments, and agencies are working closely with county governments, humanitarian organizations, and development partners to strengthen multi-agency response mechanisms before the onset of the rains.

According to Owino, authorities are conducting risk assessments, identifying flood-prone and vulnerable areas, preparing emergency response plans, and enhancing early-warning communication systems to help communities prepare for severe weather conditions.

“The government is particularly alert to the possibility of heavy rainfall in some areas, which may lead to flooding, landslides, disruption of transport and essential services, damage to infrastructure, and displacement of vulnerable households,” Owino said.

The government has advised residents living in flood-prone areas, along riverbanks, and in other high-risk locations to take precautionary measures before rainfall intensifies.

People occupying riparian reserves have been strongly encouraged to voluntarily relocate to safer areas as a safeguard against possible flooding.

Authorities also warned the public against crossing flooded rivers, roads, and bridges, while motorists and pedestrians have been urged not to travel through moving floodwaters.

Residents have been advised to stay away from riverbanks and drainage channels and ensure children do not play near flooded areas or water bodies.

Households are being encouraged to secure important documents, property, and livestock where possible and to comply with evacuation instructions issued by authorized agencies.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) will continue monitoring weather developments and issuing forecasts and advisories to support preparedness and response efforts at both national and county levels.

Owino called on communities to cooperate closely with local administrators, county governments, and disaster-response teams, particularly in identifying vulnerable individuals and facilitating early evacuations when necessary.

He also urged Kenyans to rely on official weather updates and avoid spreading unverified information, stressing that “early warning must translate into early action.”

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The findings come at a time when Somalia continues to grapple with economic, security, and humanitarian challenges that are affecting livelihoods and limiting the government’s ability to provide essential public services.

Despite progress in economic reforms and debt relief efforts in recent years, the country remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, climate-related disasters, and insecurity.

According to the World Bank’s Somalia Economic Update published in May 2026, the country’s real GDP growth has declined significantly from previous levels.

The report states that Somalia’s economy grew by 4.1 percent in 2024 but slowed to 3 percent in 2025. The World Bank further projects that growth could weaken to 2.8 percent in 2026 if current trends continue.

The slowdown comes as Somalia’s economy remains heavily dependent on livestock exports, trade, remittances from the diaspora, and private sector activity. These sectors are highly sensitive to security conditions, weather patterns, and fluctuations in the global economy.

Meanwhile, a separate report by the African Development Bank highlights a decline in business revenues across the country. According to the report, business income fell by 27 percent during the early months of 2026.

Economists say the drop in business revenues is a strong indication that consumer purchasing power is weakening. Businesses are facing a sluggish market, rising operating costs, and lower demand for goods and services.

Small and medium-sized enterprises, which employ a significant portion of Somalia’s workforce and provide income for many households, are particularly vulnerable to these economic pressures.

The World Bank also reported a sharp decline in private household consumption. Data from the report shows that private consumption growth dropped from 8.8 percent in 2024 to just 3.1 percent in 2025.

The decline suggests that many Somali families are reducing their spending as they struggle with rising living costs, lower incomes, and broader economic uncertainty.

Reduced household spending often has a direct impact on businesses, leading to weaker sales and slower economic activity.

Inflation has also emerged as a growing concern. According to the World Bank, inflation stood at 3.3 percent in 2024 but increased the following year, with projections indicating it could reach 6 percent in 2026.

Rising inflation is expected to place additional strain on households, particularly low-income families. Higher prices for food, transportation, housing, and other essential services can significantly reduce living standards if wages and incomes fail to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

One of the most alarming findings in the World Bank report is the worsening food security situation. The number of Somalis facing food insecurity rose from approximately 4.6 million people in 2025 to 6.5 million in 2026.

The increase means that nearly 1.9 million additional people have fallen into food insecurity within a year.

Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned that drought, flooding, conflict, and displacement continue to drive hunger across large parts of the country, particularly in rural communities and areas affected by instability.

The economic downturn and rising inflation are expected to hit the poorest households hardest. Families facing both declining incomes and increasing prices are often forced to cut spending on food, healthcare, education, and other basic needs.

Similarly, businesses dealing with falling sales and rising costs may be forced to reduce their workforce, delay expansion plans, or scale back investments, potentially affecting employment opportunities for Somalia’s large youth population.

Somalia’s economic challenges are being driven by a combination of factors, including persistent security threats, climate change, recurring droughts and floods, limited domestic production, and reliance on external sources of income.

The country’s dependence on livestock and climate-sensitive sectors makes it particularly vulnerable to environmental shocks.

The latest data also places additional pressure on the Somali government, which is seeking to increase domestic revenue, improve public services, attract private investment, and create jobs.

Sustained economic growth will be critical if the country is to reduce poverty and improve living conditions.

Economic experts have long emphasized the need for Somalia to diversify its economy, strengthen domestic production, expand government revenue sources, and invest in critical infrastructure.

Such reforms are viewed as essential for building resilience against future economic shocks.

Despite the challenges highlighted in the reports, analysts note that Somalia still possesses significant economic potential.

Sectors such as livestock, fisheries, agriculture, renewable energy, telecommunications, and trade could drive long-term growth if supported by effective policies, investment, and improved infrastructure.

While the outlook remains difficult in the short term, economists say Somalia’s ability to harness its natural resources, strengthen institutions, and encourage private sector development will play a crucial role in determining whether the country can reverse the current slowdown and achieve more sustainable economic growth in the years ahead.

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Speaking to local media, Jubaland Minister for Environment and Climate Change, Caydiid Suleymaan Xaashi, said weather forecasts indicate a heightened risk of above-average Deyr seasonal rains, particularly from early October onward.

He warned that several districts could experience severe flooding, especially communities located along riverbanks, floodplains, and low-lying areas.

The warning comes amid growing concerns from meteorological agencies and humanitarian organizations that Somalia could face another challenging rainy season between October and December 2026, with forecasters predicting the continued influence of El Niño-related weather patterns.

Such conditions often bring heavier-than-normal rainfall to parts of East Africa, increasing the likelihood of flash floods and river overflows.

According to the minister, as many as 12 districts in Jubaland are considered vulnerable to flooding and extreme rainfall.

Residents living near the Jubba River, seasonal streams, and flood-prone settlements have been advised to monitor weather updates closely and relocate to safer areas if conditions deteriorate.

Climate projections for the region suggest that Somalia could receive rainfall significantly above the seasonal average, with the greatest flood risk concentrated along the Jubba and Shabelle river basins.

Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned that these areas remain highly susceptible to flooding due to weak drainage systems, riverbank erosion, and recurring extreme weather events linked to climate change.

Minister Caydiid said an estimated 1.8 million people could be affected by the anticipated rains and flooding, while more than 351,000 people may face displacement if severe flooding materializes.

He added that nearly 45 health facilities and at least 10 schools are among the critical institutions that could be impacted by major flood events.

The warning revives memories of the devastating floods that struck Somalia in 2023, when heavy rains displaced more than a million people, submerged towns and villages, destroyed infrastructure, and damaged vast areas of farmland.

Those floods were among the worst in recent years and highlighted the country’s vulnerability to climate-related disasters.

The minister also called on residents, businesses, civil society organizations, and the Somali diaspora to prepare in advance and support emergency response efforts if needed.

He noted that communities across Jubaland had previously shown resilience during prolonged droughts through coordinated efforts involving local authorities, religious leaders, businesses, security forces, and humanitarian groups.

However, Caydiid criticized the Federal Government of Somalia, arguing that Jubaland did not receive the level of support it expected during previous drought emergencies.

He urged international partners to ensure that humanitarian assistance intended for Jubaland reaches the region directly and without delay.

The ministry further called on government institutions to develop sector-specific contingency plans to reduce the impact of potential flooding. Particular attention was placed on health services, agriculture, livestock, education, and community protection programs.

Officials from the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock were urged to strengthen climate adaptation measures and support farmers and pastoralists who could be affected by flooding.

Meanwhile, the Ministries of Health and Women’s Affairs were encouraged to prepare emergency response plans to address the humanitarian and public health consequences that often accompany large-scale flood disasters.

As part of long-term preparedness efforts, the minister also proposed the creation of a specialized disaster-response unit trained to react rapidly to floods and other natural emergencies, arguing that Somalia needs stronger domestic capacity to respond to increasingly frequent climate-related crises.

With the Deyr rainy season approaching, authorities say the coming weeks will be critical for preparedness efforts as communities across Jubaland brace for what could become one of the region’s most challenging weather seasons in recent years.

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The latest developments followed the movement of forces that had previously been stationed in Carmo district, Bari region, toward Karkaar on Friday.

Local sources said nearly 20 military vehicles arrived in the Raka-Raaxo area, reportedly in pursuit of forces affiliated with the Federal Government that had previously been stationed in Kur-ilaalo, an area under Xumbays district.

The movement of armed units has heightened fears that the standoff could develop into an armed confrontation if the two sides come into direct contact.

The situation has been further complicated by statements reportedly made by the forces that arrived in Carmo.

The troops are said to have rejected Puntland’s authority and declared that they take their orders directly from the Federal Government in Mogadishu.

Puntland could view such a declaration as a direct challenge to its administrative and security authority over territory under its control.

The Federal Government, however, could regard the forces as part of Somalia’s national military structure, highlighting a broader dispute between Mogadishu and Puntland over who has the authority to recruit, deploy, command and administer federal forces operating inside Puntland-controlled areas.

The latest tensions in Karkaar come amid already strained political and security relations between Puntland and the Federal Government.

Disagreements over constitutional reforms, federal authority, security arrangements and the status of forces operating in Puntland have increasingly spilled into the military sphere.

Puntland has previously taken action against forces and military units that declared allegiance to Mogadishu, raising concerns that competing chains of command could lead to further confrontations.

The developments also follow recent tensions elsewhere in Puntland, where forces affiliated with the Federal Government have been involved in disputes with Puntland authorities.

The situation has raised broader concerns that military units operating under competing commands could become flashpoints in the ongoing political dispute between the two administrations.

If forces from the two sides move closer to one another, the current standoff could quickly escalate into armed clashes, potentially affecting civilians across Karkaar and surrounding areas.

Fighting could disrupt roads, commercial activity and essential services, while forcing residents to leave their homes if the security situation deteriorates.

The immediate priority is therefore to prevent the military buildup from turning into an armed confrontation.

Local authorities and community leaders could play an important role in separating the forces, discouraging inflammatory rhetoric and opening channels for urgent dialogue before the situation worsens.

Traditional elders, Puntland authorities, the Federal Government and community leaders all have a role to play in containing the dispute.

Without a political or security arrangement addressing the competing claims over military authority, however, the Karkaar standoff could become another flashpoint in the wider dispute between Puntland and Mogadishu.

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The agency officially launched the first phase of food distributions in both towns, targeting vulnerable and low-income households struggling with the effects of recurring drought, rising food prices, and declining livelihoods.

SoDMA said the initiative forms part of its nationwide relief programme aimed at supporting communities facing acute humanitarian needs, with priority given to families most severely affected by climate-related shocks.

The launch of the Abudwak distribution was attended by Member of Parliament Raysal Qorane, SoDMA Commissioner Mahmoud Moallin Abdulle, Galmudug Minister for Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Abdirahman Makawi, and officials from the Abudwak district administration.

The agency said food distributions in Beledweyne, the capital of Hiiraan, also began on Sunday and will continue over the coming days to reach additional beneficiaries.

SoDMA officials reaffirmed the agency’s commitment to expanding humanitarian assistance across Somalia, emphasizing that it will continue working closely with federal member states and humanitarian partners to deliver timely relief to drought-affected communities.

They said strengthening emergency response efforts remains essential as climate-related disasters continue to place millions of Somalis at risk of food insecurity.

Large parts of central Somalia, including Galgaduud and Hiiraan, have endured repeated drought cycles in recent years, leaving many pastoralist and farming communities struggling with water shortages, livestock losses, and reduced agricultural production.

Humanitarian agencies continue to warn that prolonged dry conditions, coupled with economic pressures, have increased the number of people requiring emergency food assistance across the country.

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