Military tensions were reported on Saturday in parts of Puntland’s Karkaar region, amid reports of troop movements involving Puntland security forces and fighters said to be directly aligned with Somalia’s Federal Government.
The latest developments followed the movement of forces that had previously been stationed in Carmo district, Bari region, toward Karkaar on Friday.
Local sources said nearly 20 military vehicles arrived in the Raka-Raaxo area, reportedly in pursuit of forces affiliated with the Federal Government that had previously been stationed in Kur-ilaalo, an area under Xumbays district.
The movement of armed units has heightened fears that the standoff could develop into an armed confrontation if the two sides come into direct contact.
The situation has been further complicated by statements reportedly made by the forces that arrived in Carmo.
The troops are said to have rejected Puntland’s authority and declared that they take their orders directly from the Federal Government in Mogadishu.
Puntland could view such a declaration as a direct challenge to its administrative and security authority over territory under its control.
The Federal Government, however, could regard the forces as part of Somalia’s national military structure, highlighting a broader dispute between Mogadishu and Puntland over who has the authority to recruit, deploy, command and administer federal forces operating inside Puntland-controlled areas.
The latest tensions in Karkaar come amid already strained political and security relations between Puntland and the Federal Government.
Disagreements over constitutional reforms, federal authority, security arrangements and the status of forces operating in Puntland have increasingly spilled into the military sphere.
Puntland has previously taken action against forces and military units that declared allegiance to Mogadishu, raising concerns that competing chains of command could lead to further confrontations.
The developments also follow recent tensions elsewhere in Puntland, where forces affiliated with the Federal Government have been involved in disputes with Puntland authorities.
The situation has raised broader concerns that military units operating under competing commands could become flashpoints in the ongoing political dispute between the two administrations.
If forces from the two sides move closer to one another, the current standoff could quickly escalate into armed clashes, potentially affecting civilians across Karkaar and surrounding areas.
Fighting could disrupt roads, commercial activity and essential services, while forcing residents to leave their homes if the security situation deteriorates.
The immediate priority is therefore to prevent the military buildup from turning into an armed confrontation.
Local authorities and community leaders could play an important role in separating the forces, discouraging inflammatory rhetoric and opening channels for urgent dialogue before the situation worsens.
Traditional elders, Puntland authorities, the Federal Government and community leaders all have a role to play in containing the dispute.
Without a political or security arrangement addressing the competing claims over military authority, however, the Karkaar standoff could become another flashpoint in the wider dispute between Puntland and Mogadishu.