Former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s warning that the government will disarm anyone who takes up arms comes at a time when Somalia is facing heightened political and security tensions.

Hassan Sheikh warned opposition groups against taking up arms, saying those who choose violence would be confronted in the same manner as Al-Shabaab and ISIS.

The remarks have raised a broader question: Can Somalia realistically pursue forced disarmament at a time when political tensions remain high and security institutions are still divided?

The first distinction is between political opposition and armed militant groups. Al-Shabaab and ISIS are armed organizations that the Somali government officially considers security threats and is fighting militarily.

Political opposition, however, is part of the political system as long as it operates peacefully and does not engage in armed violence.

Using force to disarm politicians simply because they oppose the government could therefore deepen political tensions and undermine the space for peaceful political competition.

If an individual or group takes up arms and launches attacks against the government or civilians, the situation becomes different. Such cases should be addressed through the law and the country’s security and justice institutions.

In principle, disarmament is possible, but attempting to impose it by force in the current environment would be extremely difficult without a political agreement and a clear legal framework.

Somalia continues to face multiple security challenges, including Al-Shabaab, ISIS elements, local armed groups and clan militias.

At the same time, political disagreements persist between the Federal Government and some federal member states, while disputes over elections, the constitution and the distribution of political and security powers remain unresolved.

In such an environment, an attempt by one political side to forcibly disarm another could trigger further confrontation. Opposition groups could mobilize supporters, potentially creating new political alliances or even armed confrontations.

A more sustainable approach would involve political dialogue, a unified national security structure, gradual and lawful disarmament, reintegration of those who surrender weapons, and a coordinated campaign against Al-Shabaab and ISIS.

Disarming Al-Shabaab cannot realistically happen overnight. It requires a combination of military pressure, intelligence capabilities, effective governance, public services and political stability.

If Hassan Sheikh is advocating long-term disarmament, the process would need to be based on law, political consensus and clear rules that apply equally to all sides.

Otherwise, a campaign presented as disarmament could instead become another source of political conflict in an already fragile security environment.

Heavy fighting erupted across parts of Baidoa on Monday, August 17, between forces aligned with the Federal Government of Somalia and troops loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen.

The fighting was among the most serious clashes reported in Baidoa since March, when Federal Government forces took control of the city amid escalating political tensions between Mogadishu and the South West administration.

Reports from Baidoa this morning indicate that the situation is calmer than it was on Monday, with Federal Government forces claiming that they pushed back the troops who launched the attack.

The fighting began early Monday morning, August 17, with heavy gunfire and explosions reported in several parts of the city.

Residents said they heard explosions and heavy gunfire as people were preparing for the dawn prayer.

Reports also indicated that several homes and other buildings were damaged during the fighting, although the full extent of the destruction has yet to be independently established.

The latest clashes are linked to a long-running political dispute between the Federal Government and the leadership of South West State.

The dispute has involved disagreements over power-sharing, elections, constitutional changes and the relationship between the Federal Government and the country’s federal member states.

Tensions escalated sharply in March 2026 when Federal Government forces entered and took control of Baidoa.

Laftagareen later left office, but his departure did not resolve the wider political dispute or the tensions surrounding control of the city.

Baidoa has endured years of conflict, drought, displacement and humanitarian hardship, leaving large numbers of civilians particularly vulnerable to renewed violence.

The latest fighting is therefore a serious warning of the consequences when political disagreements are allowed to escalate into armed confrontation.

Continued clashes could further disrupt civilian life, humanitarian operations, transport and essential services in a city already facing significant challenges.

For Baidoa’s residents, the immediate priority remains the restoration of calm and the prevention of further fighting, while the broader political disagreements between Mogadishu and South West actors will require a negotiated solution rather than another military confrontation.

The Somali Future Council has blamed President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for the escalating violence in Galkayo, accusing him of inflaming tensions by deploying troops and weapons to areas along the Puntland–Galmudug boundary.

In a statement, the opposition coalition warned that the military buildup risks destabilizing the region, undermining years of reconciliation efforts, and diverting critical security resources away from the fight against Al-Shabaab.

The council called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, urging all parties to exercise restraint and protect the peace and coexistence that has gradually been restored in Galkayo.

It warned that continued fighting could lead to further deaths, injuries, and displacement while creating opportunities for Al-Shabaab to exploit the deteriorating security situation and expand its operations.

According to the statement, the deployment of federal troops and weapons has unnecessarily heightened tensions between Puntland and Galmudug at a time when Somalia should be concentrating its military efforts on defeating extremist groups rather than fueling internal conflicts.

The council argued that the current escalation threatens regional stability and weakens national efforts to improve security across the country.

The Somali Future Council also pledged to support mediation efforts, saying it is prepared to work with traditional elders, religious leaders, civil society organizations, and community representatives to facilitate dialogue and help restore lasting peace in Galkayo.

The opposition stressed that political disputes should be resolved through negotiation rather than armed confrontation to prevent the conflict from escalating further.

The three-day Second Summit of Troop-Contributing Countries (TCCs) to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) concluded Friday in Kampala, Uganda, after bringing together leaders from Somalia, Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia and Kenya to chart the future of the African Union’s security mission in Somalia.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended the summit alongside regional leaders, where discussions focused on the future of AUSSOM, the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali forces, regional security cooperation, and the mission’s growing financial challenges.

The summit followed meetings of military chiefs and defense ministers held earlier in the week, creating a coordinated roadmap before the heads of state convened for the final session.

In his address, Hassan Sheikh highlighted what he described as progress made by Somalia in military operations against Al-Shabaab, security sector reforms, institution-building, economic recovery and the expansion of public services.

He said these achievements were the result of cooperation between Somali citizens and international partners, while emphasizing the need for continued regional and international support during Somalia’s security transition.

One of the summit’s most significant outcomes was a joint appeal by participating leaders for the United Nations Security Council to extend UN logistical and operational support for AUSSOM by an additional 18 to 24 months.

The leaders warned that a premature reduction in international assistance could create a dangerous security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit, undermining recent gains made by Somali and African Union forces.

The final communiqué also called for increased international funding to address AUSSOM’s mounting financial shortfall, reaffirmed support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, urged Somali political stakeholders to prioritize national unity and reconciliation, and emphasized the importance of strengthening Somali security institutions before completing the transition from African Union-led security operations to full Somali responsibility.

The summit’s recommendations will now be submitted to the African Union Peace and Security Council before being forwarded to the UN Security Council, where they are expected to shape decisions on the future mandate, financing and long-term support framework for AUSSOM.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Kampala, Uganda, on Thursday afternoon, where he held bilateral talks with Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni ahead of the high-level summit of troop-contributing countries to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

The two leaders discussed ways to strengthen the long-standing partnership between Somalia and Uganda, with particular emphasis on expanding cooperation in security, defense, and state institution-building.

They also reviewed ongoing joint efforts to combat Al-Shabaab, stressing the importance of regional collaboration in addressing security threats across the Horn of Africa.

The meeting also focused on the upcoming AUSSOM summit, where leaders are expected to discuss the future of the African Union mission, regional security cooperation, and strategies to strengthen Somalia’s security institutions as the country gradually assumes greater responsibility for its own defense.

The summit comes at a critical time for AUSSOM, which is facing growing financial uncertainty following a decline in international donor support.

The mission has also been affected by the United States’ decision to end funding for the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) after December 2026, raising concerns over the long-term sustainability of logistical support for African Union peacekeepers.

Uganda remains one of the largest troop-contributing countries to the African Union mission in Somalia and has played a central role in counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab for nearly two decades.

Kampala has consistently supported Somalia’s efforts to rebuild its national security institutions while working alongside regional and international partners to improve stability.

The outcomes of the Kampala summit are expected to shape the next phase of AUSSOM by addressing long-term financing, operational coordination, and Somalia’s security transition, as regional leaders seek to ensure continued support for the country’s stabilization and state-building efforts.