Former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s warning that the government will disarm anyone who takes up arms comes at a time when Somalia is facing heightened political and security tensions.
Hassan Sheikh warned opposition groups against taking up arms, saying those who choose violence would be confronted in the same manner as Al-Shabaab and ISIS.
The remarks have raised a broader question: Can Somalia realistically pursue forced disarmament at a time when political tensions remain high and security institutions are still divided?
The first distinction is between political opposition and armed militant groups. Al-Shabaab and ISIS are armed organizations that the Somali government officially considers security threats and is fighting militarily.
Political opposition, however, is part of the political system as long as it operates peacefully and does not engage in armed violence.
Using force to disarm politicians simply because they oppose the government could therefore deepen political tensions and undermine the space for peaceful political competition.
If an individual or group takes up arms and launches attacks against the government or civilians, the situation becomes different. Such cases should be addressed through the law and the country’s security and justice institutions.
In principle, disarmament is possible, but attempting to impose it by force in the current environment would be extremely difficult without a political agreement and a clear legal framework.
Somalia continues to face multiple security challenges, including Al-Shabaab, ISIS elements, local armed groups and clan militias.
At the same time, political disagreements persist between the Federal Government and some federal member states, while disputes over elections, the constitution and the distribution of political and security powers remain unresolved.
In such an environment, an attempt by one political side to forcibly disarm another could trigger further confrontation. Opposition groups could mobilize supporters, potentially creating new political alliances or even armed confrontations.
A more sustainable approach would involve political dialogue, a unified national security structure, gradual and lawful disarmament, reintegration of those who surrender weapons, and a coordinated campaign against Al-Shabaab and ISIS.
Disarming Al-Shabaab cannot realistically happen overnight. It requires a combination of military pressure, intelligence capabilities, effective governance, public services and political stability.
If Hassan Sheikh is advocating long-term disarmament, the process would need to be based on law, political consensus and clear rules that apply equally to all sides.
Otherwise, a campaign presented as disarmament could instead become another source of political conflict in an already fragile security environment.