The reported withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, the advances made by forces loyal to former South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed ‘Laftagareen,’ and the movements of Al-Shabaab have raised questions about who will fill the vacuum left by departing troops and how to prevent the political volatility from creating opportunities for armed groups.

Reports published on October 17, 2026, indicated that forces loyal to Laftagareen entered the Bardale district of Bay region after troops stationed there pulled back.

These reports also noted that shifts in territorial control occurred days earlier in Qansaxdheere and Burhakaba.

Meanwhile, other reports outlined allegations that Ethiopian troops withdrew from bases they previously occupied in parts of southern Somalia, sparking concerns over the potential for Al-Shabaab to exploit the resulting security void.

Ethiopia has long been one of the key actors supporting anti-Al-Shabaab counter-terrorism operations in southern Somalia, particularly in the Bay and Bakool regions and areas adjacent to the bilateral border.

The presence of Ethiopian troops is predicated on fighting Al-Shabaab, securing border corridors, and preventing armed groups from establishing operational bases near Ethiopian territory.

Al-Shabaab has long maintained a significant presence in parts of the Bay and Bakool regions, occasionally controlling rural areas and critical transit routes vital to civilian movement and commercial transport.

A situational report updated in October 2026 and published on ECOI indicates that Al-Shabaab still controls parts of South West State, while the government and supporting forces control major towns and key urban centers.

The report also noted the importance of Ethiopian forces to security in parts of the Bakool region.

This intelligence demonstrates that the security situation in the region remains mixed, and cannot be generalized as a single faction exercising complete control over all areas.

It is possible that when troops withdraw from forward positions in vulnerable areas, Al-Shabaab will attempt to expand its operational footprint there.

However, this possibility does not mean that every area vacated by troops automatically falls directly into the hands of the group.

Waajid district in Bakool region is among the critical hubs for the security situation in South West State.

It holds strategic importance regarding transit logistics, connectivity with surrounding localities, and anti-Al-Shabaab military operations.

Available security reports indicate that Waajid previously hosted a military presence comprising Somali government forces and Ethiopian troops.

Consequently, any alteration in troop strength or stationing could have a pronounced operational impact.

Claims have also surfaced alleging that a plan regarding the troop withdrawal and control of Waajid was halted.

However, available intelligence remains insufficient to independently verify who spearheaded this plan, why it was suspended, or whether there was a deliberate attempt to hand the district over to Al-Shabaab.

The security situation in Bay and Bakool cannot be decoupled from the political conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia and the factions competing for leadership in South West State.

Troop movements and shifts in territorial control come at a time of intense rivalry over regional administration, institutional authority, and control of the political order in South West State.

Any nation may harbor security, economic, and strategic interests in Somalia. However, weaponizing those interests into allegations of supporting Al-Shabaab requires specific evidence detailing the actor, the exact actions taken, and a direct link to the group.

Turkey has in recent years strengthened its security and military partnership with the Federal Government of Somalia, contributing to troop training and enhancing national defense capabilities.

The Federal Government of Somalia has an opportunity to reassess the security landscape in Bay and Bakool, particularly in light of shifts in the Ethiopian military footprint.

If foreign forces withdraw from areas they have occupied for extended periods, the federal government requires a clear contingency plan to secure critical infrastructure, key transit corridors connecting towns, and civilian population centers.

Such a strategy necessitates effective coordination among the Somali National Army, South West State security forces, AUSSOM, and international partners.

It is equally essential to ensure reliable intelligence, adequate logistics support, unified command structures, and the re-establishment of civilian administration in areas liberated from Al-Shabaab.

Security success cannot be measured solely by driving an armed group out of a town. It is equally critical to prevent insurgent re-entry, ensure access to basic public services, and enable state institutions to maintain a durable presence.

If the federal government succeeds in strengthening security in South West State, it could impact the country’s political balance and its relations with other regional administrations.

Jubbaland, led by Ahmed Mohamed Islam ‘Ahmed Madobe,’ is among the regional administrations maintaining political disputes with the federal government.

Any shift in the central government’s power dynamic could influence negotiations surrounding the federal framework and the future of power-sharing.

Political analyses suggest that developments in South West State could reopen debate regarding the leadership of Jubbaland and its relationship with the central government.

However, notions suggesting that Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre could lead Jubbaland in the future remain political speculation unsupported by official verification.

Therefore, the Jubbaland matter should be viewed as a potential political ripple effect stemming from the national situation, rather than a confirmed plan.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the federal government face two major imperatives: safeguarding public security and managing internal political disputes within the country.

If Al-Shabaab exploits troop withdrawals or political friction among stakeholders, the government bears the responsibility to prevent the group from gaining additional power in new areas.

On the other hand, the war against Al-Shabaab must not be used as a pretext to further fuel political conflict or weaken local administrative institutions.

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The visit, announced by the Kenyan Ministry of Defense, focused on assessing troop readiness, the security situation in their operational areas, and the welfare of soldiers deployed in Somalia.

Upon his arrival in Kismayo, Brigadier Luka Kutto was received by the Deputy Commander of Sector Two, Colonel Daniel Musau.

The commander received a briefing from military officers, obtaining updates on operational conditions and the challenges facing Kenyan forces serving in Somalia.

During the meeting, emphasis was placed on the importance of troops maintaining vigilance, discipline, and military professionalism to efficiently fulfill their assigned mandate.

The commander’s visit came two days after Kenya Defence Forces Day, celebrated on October 14, which honored soldiers who lost their lives in operations and paid tribute to veterans and actively serving personnel.

Kismayo hosts the headquarters of AUSSOM Sector Two, where Kenyan forces contribute to efforts supporting security in Somalia.

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According to a release issued by the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), the incoming battalion is commanded by Colonel Michael Opio Ocuka.

Its arrival included orientation briefings from senior UPDF officers, who issued operational directives to the personnel prior to their full assumption of mission duties.

This rotation forms part of the standard force renewal process for Ugandan military contingents deployed to Somalia, ensuring uninterrupted delivery of the mandate authorized for African Union forces supporting national security and stabilization efforts.

The 48th Battalion Assumes Duties of Predecessor Unit: The 48th Battalion arrived in Somalia to relieve the 45th Battalion, which served among the active Ugandan contingents under AUSSOM.

Contingent rotation represents a vital mechanism for operational continuity, enabling units completing their theater tours to redeploy home while fresh units assume primary responsibilities.

This framework also facilitates unit familiarization with local security conditions, geographic sectors, and command protocols by leveraging operational handover knowledge from outgoing personnel.

The UPDF release did not specify the total troop strength of the incoming battalion, its exact tactical Sector deployment, or the precise date on which the 45th Battalion concluded its tour.

Consequently, those operational specifics await further confirmation from UPDF Command or AUSSOM mission Headquarters.

Brigadier General Jackson Kayanja Briefs Incoming Troops: The Commander of Uganda’s Contingent Sector One, Brigadier General Jackson Kayanja, urged the newly arrived troops to demonstrate strict discipline, military professionalism, and continuous operational readiness throughout their tour of duty.

General Kayanja emphasized that individual discipline forms the bedrock of a soldier’s success, charging the personnel to uphold the chain of command, respect superior officers, and foster unit cohesion and camaraderie across the ranks.

He further noted that the troops must embody discipline built on comprehension, sound judgment, and responsibility, rather than executing orders blindly without tactical awareness or due care.

The commander’s address highlights the high priority Ugandan military leadership places on force conduct, particularly when operating in environments characterized by complex security challenges that demand constant vigilance.

Emphasis on Interoperability and Vigilance: Brigadier General Jackson Kayanja also called on the incoming battalion to strengthen coordination, dedication, and joint execution during operations.

According to the commander, these elements remain vital for fulfilling the force mandate and mitigating security threats encountered by troops supporting Somali national stabilization.

Interoperability across different units plays a pivotal role in operational integration, tactical intelligence-sharing, and executing assigned mission tasks.

Likewise, continuous vigilance represents a core component of force readiness required for personnel deployed to high-risk operational sectors.

However, the published briefing did not reference any specific operations in which the new battalion has already engaged, nor is there any indication that the 48th Battalion has commenced direct combat engagements against Al-Shabaab.

Colonel Jude Rukubya Urges Adaptation to Operational Environment: The Deputy Commander of Sector One, Colonel Jude Rukubya, similarly counseled the incoming troops to rapidly adapt to Somalia’s operational climate and local security dynamics.

Colonel Rukubya encouraged the soldiers to remain eager to master new operational procedures while building upon the practical experience of veteran personnel deployed long-term in the country.

He emphasized the critical value of operational adaptability, learning from peer experiences, and executing mission objectives collectively.

Such guidance proves particularly essential for newly arriving contingents integrating into an international mission framework, as personnel must thoroughly grasp operational protocols, inter-agency coordination procedures, and the specific terrain dynamics of their assigned sector.

Adapting to the Somali operating environment further requires an understanding of local socio-cultural dynamics, seamless civil-military coordination with Somali security forces, and executing mission directives while prioritizing civilian protection.

Ugandan military leadership additionally underscored the imperative of Pan-African solidarity and a clear alignment with the core strategic objectives of the AUSSOM mission.

Uganda has maintained a sustained troop deployment in Somalia for nearly two decades, having served as a cornerstone of successive African Union peacekeeping iterations prior to AUSSOM’s launch.

The AUSSOM mission officially transitioned into operational force on January 1, 2025, succeeding the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).

The current mission mandate focuses on bolstering Somalia’s defense architecture and developing the independent capacity of the Somali National Armed Forces.

As established in official mission frameworks, African Union contingents operate in direct support of Somali security institutions, reinforcing stabilization operations and securing high-risk operational sectors.

The concept of Pan-African solidarity highlighted by Ugandan commanders reflects the broader doctrine of African-led solutions to regional security crises, advancing collective peace and stability across the Horn of Africa.

For Somalia, the deployment of African Union forces remains governed by formal mission mandates and structural alignment with federal authorities and national defense institutions.

Uganda was among the first nations to deploy troops to Somalia as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which launched in 2007.

Since then, Ugandan forces have participated in numerous operations supporting security in Mogadishu and other regions across the country.

As AMISOM transitioned into ATMIS, and subsequently into AUSSOM, Ugandan troops continued their involvement in African Union security initiatives in Somalia.

A report published by AUSSOM in November 2025 noted that Ugandan forces contributed to stabilization operations, the protection of critical infrastructure, and the securing of main supply routes (MSRs) in areas including Barawe.

The report also highlighted ongoing operational coordination between Ugandan units and Somali security forces.

This data demonstrates that Uganda’s involvement extends beyond mere troop presence to encompass supporting stabilization and security operations executed within the framework of the African Union mission.

The rotation of the 45th Battalion and the deployment of the 48th Battalion reflect the continuity of Uganda’s military presence in Somalia and the standard force-renewal protocols governing participating units.

Such rotations remain essential for personnel management, mission continuity, and ensuring incoming troops receive comprehensive operational orientation before assuming command.

However, unit rotations alone do not indicate an increase or decrease in the overall strength of Ugandan forces in Somalia, nor do they signal changes to the mission’s overarching strategic concept of operations or geographic areas of responsibility.

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According to Reuters, the arrangement does not mean that UN support will continue indefinitely.

Instead, the drawdown of assistance provided through the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) is expected to begin in January 2027 and be phased out over a 12-month period.

The decision provides AUSSOM and the Somali government with additional time to identify alternative mechanisms for financing and sustaining the mission’s logistical needs.

UNSOS plays a critical role in supporting AUSSOM by providing essential services, including food supplies, fuel, water, medical support, transportation, and other operational requirements for African Union troops deployed across Somalia.

UN documents indicate that UNSOS continues to provide logistical assistance to AUSSOM as the mission undergoes restructuring and gradually transfers some security responsibilities and military positions to Somali security forces.

AUSSOM was established to support Somalia’s efforts to combat Al-Shabaab and strengthen national security. African Union forces remain deployed in several parts of the country, while Somali forces continue to assume greater responsibility for security operations.

However, the fight against Al-Shabaab still requires substantial military, financial, and logistical support, making the future of international assistance a key issue for both Somalia and its partners.

Washington’s decision reflects an evolving U.S. approach toward funding and supporting international peace and security missions.

Yet the most significant challenge facing AUSSOM is not only the eventual reduction of UNSOS assistance but also securing a sustainable source of funding for the mission itself.

Previous funding proposals envisioned a burden-sharing arrangement involving both the United Nations and the African Union.

UN planning documents indicated that the United Nations could cover up to 75 percent of the mission’s budget, with the remaining costs expected to come from other sources.

The one-year extension gives Somalia and the African Union additional time to seek long-term solutions.

Nevertheless, questions remain over whether sufficient financial resources and replacement support mechanisms can be secured before UNSOS assistance is fully phased out.

The United Nations has already outlined a multi-stage transition plan for AUSSOM that includes mission restructuring, the transfer of security responsibilities, and eventual troop reductions.

According to UN planning documents, the mission’s second phase is expected to continue through the end of 2027, followed by later stages focused on transition and eventual withdrawal.

For Somalia, the extension offers an opportunity to further strengthen its national security forces, improve logistical capabilities, and secure new sources of international support.

It also provides the African Union with additional time to develop alternative funding arrangements should UN assistance decline.

The coming year is therefore expected to be crucial for discussions between Somalia, the African Union, the United Nations, and international partners as they seek a sustainable future for AUSSOM.

Meanwhile, the UN continues planning support for the mission during the 2026–2027 period, maintaining that UNSOS will continue providing logistical assistance in line with AUSSOM’s restructuring and transition process.

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For more than a decade, Ethiopia has maintained troops in Somalia and has been one of the key contributors to regional efforts against Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopian forces participated in both the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and its successor, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), and are now part of AUSSOM.

Their lengthy deployment has provided Ethiopia with extensive operational experience and a deep understanding of Somalia’s security landscape.

The report argues that Addis Ababa wants to leverage that experience to secure a stronger voice in shaping the future of AUSSOM.

Ethiopia has been authorized to contribute nearly 2,500 troops to the mission, which currently consists of fewer than 12,000 personnel from countries including Uganda, Kenya, Djibouti, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

Beyond its contribution to African Union missions, Ethiopia has also maintained troops in Somalia under bilateral security agreements for many years.

This long-term presence gives Addis Ababa a significant stake in discussions about the future of AUSSOM, particularly as concerns grow over funding, troop levels, and the mission’s future beyond 2026.

Relations between Ethiopia and Somalia have experienced significant strain in recent years, especially following the controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland in January 2024.

The agreement triggered a major diplomatic dispute with Mogadishu and raised questions about whether Ethiopian troops would be excluded from Somalia’s new African Union mission.

Despite those tensions, Ethiopia ultimately remained one of the countries contributing forces to AUSSOM.

The report notes that Ethiopia continues to play an important role in Somalia’s security architecture.

In August 2026, Ethiopian forces handed over the strategic Buurhakaba military base to Somali government troops after maintaining a presence there for years, highlighting ongoing adjustments within the AUSSOM framework while preserving Ethiopia’s influence on the ground.

According to the report, Ethiopia’s interests extend beyond defending its borders against threats emanating from Somalia.

Addis Ababa is seeking a more active role in planning the future of AUSSOM, including decisions related to leadership structures, operational coordination, troop deployments, and long-term strategy.

Al-Shabaab remains one of the most significant security threats to both Ethiopia and Somalia.

Ethiopian officials view the militant group’s activities as a direct concern because instability in Somalia can quickly affect security along the two countries’ shared border.

As a result, Ethiopia is keen to ensure that AUSSOM retains sufficient capacity to combat Al-Shabaab, particularly in areas whose instability could threaten Ethiopian security interests.

The report also emphasizes Ethiopia’s interest in strengthening intelligence-sharing and military coordination among AUSSOM, Somali security forces, and other troop-contributing countries.

Years of military operations inside Somalia have provided Ethiopian forces with extensive knowledge of Al-Shabaab’s tactics, networks, and areas of operation, giving Addis Ababa valuable expertise that it hopes to bring to future mission planning.

A key concern for Ethiopia is the future financing of AUSSOM. The mission continues to face serious funding challenges, and uncertainty remains over how troop deployments and operations will be sustained after 2026.

Ethiopia views stable and predictable funding as essential to regional security, warning that a sudden reduction in troop numbers could create security gaps that Al-Shabaab could exploit.

The report also highlights growing geopolitical competition between Ethiopia and Egypt inside Somalia. Egypt has expanded its security and military cooperation with Somalia and is among the countries participating in AUSSOM.

This development is being closely watched by Addis Ababa, particularly given the long-running dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

However, the report cautions Ethiopia against turning AUSSOM into a platform for direct rivalry with Egypt.

Instead, it recommends that Addis Ababa support the mission’s African Union mandate and advocate for clearly defined command structures and responsibilities among all troop-contributing countries.

The Somaliland issue presents another challenge for Ethiopia. While Addis Ababa maintains close ties with Somaliland, it also needs a functional working relationship with the Federal Government of Somalia, especially on security matters.

AUSSOM provides a mechanism through which Ethiopia can continue cooperating with Mogadishu even during periods of political tension.

The report further advises Ethiopia not to use AUSSOM as leverage in disputes related to Somaliland.

Keeping security cooperation separate from political disagreements, it argues, would help Ethiopia protect its security interests in Somalia while maintaining broader regional relationships.

Overall, the report concludes that AUSSOM offers Ethiopia a significant opportunity to expand its influence through its troop contributions, operational experience, geographic proximity to Somalia, and longstanding relationship with the African Union. Nevertheless, Ethiopia’s influence is not unlimited.

Somalia retains full sovereignty over its territory and security decisions, making it essential for Addis Ababa to take into account the priorities of the Somali government and the interests of other troop-contributing countries.

As debates intensify over the future of AUSSOM, its funding, and its mandate beyond 2026, the central question remains whether Ethiopia can successfully convert its years of military involvement in Somalia into lasting political and strategic influence while maintaining constructive relations with Mogadishu and regional partners.

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