Reports that the United States plans to end its support for United Nations-funded assistance to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) by the end of 2026 have raised fresh concerns about the future of the mission and the sustainability of security operations against Al-Shabaab.

The development comes at a critical time for Somalia, where government forces continue to wage military campaigns against Al-Shabaab while relying heavily on international assistance for logistics, transportation, training, intelligence support, and operational funding.

AUSSOM, which replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in early 2025, remains a key pillar of Somalia’s security architecture.

The mission provides support to Somali security forces operating in frontline areas and helps maintain stability in regions recovered from Al-Shabaab control.

According to recent international reports, Washington informed the African Union in July 2026 that it would not continue supporting UN-funded logistical assistance for AUSSOM beyond December 31, 2026.

The move has intensified concerns among policymakers and security analysts about how the mission will be financed in the coming years.

A reduction in international financial support could create significant challenges for AUSSOM, particularly in areas such as transportation, fuel supplies, medical services, troop sustainment, and operational logistics.

The mission currently depends on extensive support provided through the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which delivers non-combat assistance to both AUSSOM and Somali security forces.

According to UNSOS, approximately 240 metric tons of food and other supplies are distributed monthly to troops deployed across various parts of Somalia.

Security experts warn that any disruption to this support network could affect the operational effectiveness of forces engaged in ongoing campaigns against Al-Shabaab.

The funding debate comes as Somali forces continue expanding military operations in southern and central Somalia, where government troops and allied forces are attempting to weaken Al-Shabaab’s presence and disrupt its ability to launch attacks.

Although the Somali government has made gains in several regions, Al-Shabaab remains capable of conducting complex attacks, bombings, and guerrilla operations across large parts of the country.

The Somali government has repeatedly stated that its long-term objective is for Somali security forces to assume full responsibility for national security.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has emphasized the need to strengthen the Somali National Army, police forces, intelligence agencies, and other security institutions to reduce dependence on foreign troops.

However, security analysts note that achieving this goal requires sustained investment, training, equipment, and financial resources.

If international support declines before Somali institutions are fully prepared, gaps could emerge in security operations and stabilization efforts.

The potential reduction in external funding may therefore require Somalia to increase domestic spending on defense and security while simultaneously seeking alternative international partners and funding mechanisms.

Another important aspect of the mission’s future involves Egypt’s planned participation in AUSSOM.

The African Union has repeatedly stated that the deployment process for Egyptian troops should be finalized as part of broader efforts to strengthen the mission.

Cairo has consistently expressed support for Somalia and indicated its willingness to contribute to efforts aimed at improving security and stability in the country.

On July 31, 2026, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Somalia’s state institutions and security sector while emphasizing the need for sustainable funding for AUSSOM.

Discussions regarding Egypt’s deployment have been ongoing since 2025, when Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced that Somalia was preparing to receive the first contingent of Egyptian forces.

Egyptian military officials have previously conducted assessments of potential deployment locations and operational requirements.

The African Union has also urged member states to complete the necessary procedures for Egyptian participation and finalize force-generation plans for AUSSOM.

Egypt’s involvement could provide Somalia with additional military expertise, training support, and operational capabilities in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

The move would also further strengthen the growing political and security partnership between Mogadishu and Cairo.

Over the past two years, Egypt has emerged as one of Somalia’s strongest diplomatic supporters, consistently backing Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity amid regional tensions in the Horn of Africa.

At the same time, Egyptian participation could enhance the role of regional partners in supporting Somalia’s security transition and reduce pressure on existing troop-contributing countries.

However, analysts argue that the mission’s greatest challenge is no longer troop numbers alone but securing predictable and long-term financing.

The African Union and the Somali government are currently seeking ways to secure additional funding to sustain foreign troops operating in Somalia.

Discussions are also ongoing with troop-contributing countries regarding future arrangements should international funding levels decline.

Without a replacement funding mechanism, experts warn that AUSSOM may struggle to maintain all of its current operations.

Such a scenario could force troop-contributing countries to explore bilateral security agreements with Somalia rather than operating solely under the AUSSOM framework.

For Somalia, the situation presents a dual challenge: maintaining sufficient military pressure on Al-Shabaab while ensuring that the financial and logistical foundations of the country’s security architecture remain intact.

The coming months are therefore expected to be crucial for determining the future of AUSSOM, the role of international partners, and the pace at which Somali forces can assume greater responsibility for national security.

With the mission facing growing financial uncertainty, decisions taken by Somalia, the African Union, the United Nations, and key international partners could significantly shape the country’s security landscape beyond 2026.

Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has announced that all Ugandan troops will be withdrawn from Somalia by August 1, 2027, a move that could mark a major turning point in Somalia’s security landscape and the future of the African Union mission in the country.

The announcement comes as Ugandan forces continue to play a central role in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the successor to previous African Union peacekeeping operations that have supported the Somali government in its fight against Al-Shabaab.

If implemented as planned, the withdrawal would bring to an end nearly two decades of Uganda’s military presence in Somalia.

Uganda was the first country to deploy troops to Somalia under the African Union mission in 2007 and has remained one of the largest troop-contributing nations ever since.

Ugandan forces have participated in major operations against Al-Shabaab and have been deployed in key strategic areas, including Mogadishu and other regions where the group has maintained an insurgent presence.

Over the years, Ugandan troops have worked alongside the Somali National Army (SNA), federal member state forces, and other African Union contingents in efforts to reclaim territory from Al-Shabaab and strengthen security institutions.

Te mission has also suffered significant casualties, with Ugandan bases repeatedly targeted by militant attacks.

The planned withdrawal comes at a critical moment for Somalia, as the Federal Government continues efforts to expand, train, and equip its own security forces with the goal of gradually assuming full responsibility for national security.

AUSSOM was established as part of a broader transition strategy aimed at transferring security duties from international forces to Somali authorities.

Security analysts note that while Somalia has made progress in building its military capabilities, the departure of foreign troops could create challenges if Somali forces are not fully prepared to assume control of all areas currently secured by international contingents.

Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat and continues to carry out attacks across various parts of the country despite ongoing military operations.

The announcement is also likely to intensify discussions about the future of AUSSOM and the broader international security presence in Somalia.

Questions remain about how responsibilities currently carried out by Ugandan forces will be transferred and whether Somali forces will have the resources, logistics, and operational capacity needed to fill any potential security gaps.

Experts emphasize that a successful transition will require continued investment in training, leadership development, logistics, intelligence, and equipment for Somali security forces.

Close coordination between Somalia, Uganda, the African Union, and international partners will also be essential to ensure that any withdrawal does not undermine gains made in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

If the withdrawal proceeds according to General Muhoozi’s timeline, August 1, 2027, could become a landmark date in Somalia’s security transition.

Until then, Somali and African Union officials are expected to continue planning for the gradual handover of responsibilities, with a focus on ensuring that Somali forces are capable of independently maintaining security and stability across the country.

The United Nations has begun reducing civilian staff and preparing to sell some of its assets in Somalia as uncertainty grows over future international support for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

At least 10 civilian employees working with the African Union–United Nations Information Support Team (AU-UN IST) have been informed that their contracts will end on September 10, 2026.

Sources familiar with the matter say additional staff reductions could follow as the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) moves to cut costs amid mounting financial pressure.

UNSOS has also launched a process to dispose of part of its equipment and infrastructure in Somalia.

Assets earmarked for sale reportedly include vehicles, generators, computers and IT equipment, heavy construction machinery, medical and laboratory supplies, accommodation facilities, and other logistical assets used to support international operations.

The developments come as the future of UNSOS support for AUSSOM remains uncertain.

On July 1, 2026, the United States informed the African Union that it would not support the continuation of UN logistical assistance through UNSOS beyond December 31, 2026.

While Washington has not opposed the continuation of AUSSOM itself, it has objected to maintaining the current UN-funded support structure.

UNSOS plays a critical role in sustaining AUSSOM operations, providing fuel, food, water, air and ground transport, communications, medical evacuation services, engineering support, and accommodation for peacekeeping personnel.

Any major reduction in these services could significantly affect the mission’s operational capacity across Somalia.

The UN support office operates with a budget of approximately $481.7 million for the 2026–2027 financial year, a figure lower than the previous budget cycle.

The current cost-cutting measures are seen as part of broader efforts to adjust operations ahead of a possible funding shortfall.

The UN Security Council has authorized AUSSOM to operate until December 31, 2026, with logistical backing from UNSOS. Under the mandate, the mission can maintain up to 11,826 military and police personnel, including 680 police officers.

Security analysts warn that if no alternative funding mechanism is secured before the end of the year, AUSSOM could face serious logistical challenges that may affect troop mobility, supply chains, medical services, communications, and overall mission effectiveness.

The uncertainty is also expected to place greater pressure on Somalia’s national security forces to assume a larger role in maintaining stability across the country.

Uganda has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Somalia’s security and maintaining its military presence in the country as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) faces growing financial and logistical challenges.

Ugandan Defence Minister Kiryowa Kiwanuka said Kampala remains committed to supporting peace and stability in Somalia.

His remarks came as AUSSOM troop-contributing countries held an extraordinary meeting in Kampala to discuss the mission’s future and prevent a potential security gap during the planned transition.

Uganda has been one of the largest contributors to African Union missions in Somalia, with its troops deployed since the launch of AMISOM in 2007. Its forces have continued operating under AUSSOM as Somalia gradually assumes greater responsibility for national security.

Uganda’s continued commitment has also been reflected on the ground. In May 2026, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) deployed Battle Group 47 to Somalia as part of its AUSSOM contingent.

Ugandan troops have also continued joint patrols and security operations with Somali forces, including operations around Baraawe and Lower Shabelle.

Why Uganda Wants to Stay

Kampala argues that Somalia’s security situation remains too fragile for a rapid withdrawal of African Union forces. Kiwanuka warned that removing troops from areas before Somali forces are ready to take over could create security vacuums that Al-Shabaab could exploit.

Uganda’s position is that the timing of any withdrawal should be determined by conditions on the ground rather than political deadlines.

The government says the gains made through AMISOM, ATMIS and AUSSOM could be undermined if forces leave areas where Somali security institutions remain insufficiently prepared.

The warning comes as Al-Shabaab continues to maintain operational capabilities in parts of Somalia, while Somali and AUSSOM forces conduct operations aimed at weakening the group.

AUSSOM’s Funding Problem

A major challenge facing AUSSOM is the uncertainty surrounding its long-term financing.

Uganda has called for reforms to the mission’s funding arrangements, arguing that African troops have carried a significant security burden in Somalia without a sufficiently predictable source of financing.

AUSSOM requires sustained funding for troop allowances, vehicles, fuel, medical services, supplies and military operations.

Any disruption to these resources could directly affect the mission’s ability to maintain troops in remote and strategically important locations.

The situation has become more concerning amid plans for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) to end its operations at the end of December 2026.

UNSOS currently provides AUSSOM with critical logistical support, including transportation, aviation, medical and technical services.

Security Before Withdrawal

The debate surrounding AUSSOM is therefore increasingly focused not simply on whether African Union forces will leave Somalia, but when and under what conditions.

Uganda believes troop reductions should correspond with improvements in Somalia’s security capabilities. Areas should only be handed over when Somali forces have the personnel, equipment, intelligence, logistics and other resources required to maintain control.

Kiwanuka has also stressed that military operations alone cannot provide a lasting solution to Somalia’s instability.

Political dialogue and reconciliation between the Federal Government and federal member states, he argued, are also essential to creating sustainable peace.

Somalia’s Forces Face a Major Test

Somalia has been working for years to gradually transfer security responsibilities from international forces to the Somali National Army and other domestic security institutions.

That process involves handing over bases and areas previously secured by African Union forces. However, Uganda is warning that the transition must not move faster than Somalia’s ability to fill the resulting security gaps.

The challenge is particularly significant in areas where Somali forces still depend on external assistance for logistics, intelligence, medical support and operational capabilities.

Uganda’s Long Role Against Al-Shabaab

Uganda has extensive experience fighting Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Its forces were among the first African Union troops deployed to the country and have participated in major operations across southern Somalia.

In 2026, Ugandan troops serving under AUSSOM continue to operate alongside Somali forces, particularly in South West State and Lower Shabelle. Kampala views Somalia’s security as closely linked to the wider stability of East Africa.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has also stressed that Somalia should not be abandoned as international concerns grow over the future of the mission.

For Uganda, the central message is clear: the international community should protect the security gains achieved over nearly two decades while ensuring that Somalia’s security responsibilities are transferred gradually and responsibly.

The future of AUSSOM will ultimately depend on whether its financial and logistical challenges can be addressed while Somali forces develop the capacity to take over.

For Uganda, a withdrawal that creates a security vacuum would risk undoing years of progress against Al-Shabaab.

The transfer of an Ethiopian military base in Buurhakaba, Bay region, to Somali forces has renewed debate over Somalia’s ability to assume full responsibility for national security as African Union forces gradually reduce their presence.

Ethiopian forces have maintained a presence in parts of southern Somalia, including Bay and Bakool, for years as part of efforts to support Somali authorities and fight Al-Shabaab.

The handover of the Buurhakaba base represents another step in the broader security transition aimed at placing Somali forces in greater control of areas previously secured by foreign troops.

Why Buurhakaba Matters

Buurhakaba is strategically important because of its location along routes connecting Mogadishu, Baidoa and other parts of South West State.

The military base therefore served not only as a security post but also as a platform for protecting important roads and supporting military operations in surrounding areas.

Ethiopian forces have been present in Buurhakaba since 2014 and have participated in operations against Al-Shabaab.

With Somali forces now expected to assume greater responsibility, the government faces the challenge of securing the town, maintaining the base and protecting the roads around it.

AUSSOM and the Security Transition

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) replaced ATMIS in 2025 and remains an important part of Somalia’s security transition.

The objective is not for African Union forces to leave the country all at once. Instead, responsibilities are expected to be transferred gradually to Somali forces according to the security situation in individual areas.

For that transition to succeed, Somalia needs adequately trained troops, reliable logistics, weapons and equipment, intelligence capabilities and sufficient funding.

Coordination between the federal government, federal member states and different security institutions will also be critical.

What If the Transition Moves Too Quickly?

The biggest concern is the possibility of a security vacuum.

If foreign forces leave an area before Somali forces are capable of securing it, Al-Shabaab could attempt to exploit the gap by attacking newly established positions or retaking territory where government forces are weak.

Road security is another major concern. Taking control of a military base is not enough if troops cannot safely patrol the roads connecting it to nearby towns and communities.

Any deterioration in road security could affect civilians, trade, transportation and the delivery of essential services.

For communities in areas where foreign forces withdraw, a decline in security could also lead to displacement, restrictions on movement and increased fear of militant attacks.

The Transition Could Also Be an Opportunity

Despite these risks, the withdrawal of African Union forces could represent an important opportunity for Somalia.

For years, the country has relied heavily on international and regional forces to provide security.

A carefully managed transition could allow Somalia to build a more capable national army and strengthen its ownership of security operations.

The key is timing and preparation. Somali forces must be ready to take over before foreign troops leave, rather than being expected to fill security gaps after the withdrawal has already taken place.

What Somalia Needs

The Somali security forces will require sustained training in combat operations, intelligence, civilian protection and emergency response. Troops deployed to remote bases also need regular supplies of food, water, fuel, medical support and ammunition.

Political cooperation will be equally important. Disagreements between the federal government and federal member states could complicate security operations if they prevent forces from operating under a coordinated national strategy.

If the transition is rushed, Al-Shabaab could launch attacks against newly transferred bases, vulnerable roads could become insecure and civilians could bear the greatest cost.

What Lies Ahead for AUSSOM?

AUSSOM continues to play an important role in supporting Somali forces and combating Al-Shabaab. Its gradual reduction should therefore be viewed as a security transition rather than a sudden withdrawal of all African Union forces.

The handover of the Buurhakaba base provides an important test of that process.

If Somali forces can successfully secure the base, surrounding communities and key transport routes, it could demonstrate that the country is moving closer to taking full ownership of its security.

But if the handover creates vulnerabilities that Al-Shabaab can exploit, it could highlight the dangers of withdrawing international forces before Somali institutions are sufficiently prepared.

Ultimately, the success of Somalia’s security transition will depend not simply on how quickly foreign forces leave, but on whether Somali forces are ready to take their place when they do.

The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening cooperation with Türkiye following a high-level meeting in Mogadishu between the mission’s leadership and the Turkish ambassador.

The AUSSOM Senior Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission (SRCC) and Head of Mission, Ambassador El Hadji Ibrahima Diene, received Türkiye’s Ambassador to Somalia, Alper Aktaş, for a working visit in Mogadishu.

The meeting focused on the longstanding partnership between AUSSOM and Türkiye in supporting Somali-led efforts to strengthen peace, security and stability.

The two officials emphasized the importance of continued international cooperation at a critical stage in Somalia’s security transition. They also agreed to strengthen coordination and joint efforts aimed at supporting lasting peace and stability in the country.

The meeting comes as Somalia prepares for another important phase in the gradual transfer of security responsibilities from international forces to Somali security institutions.

AUSSOM’s current mandate is scheduled to conclude at the end of 2026, increasing the importance of coordination between Somalia, the African Union and its international security partners.

Türkiye’s Expanding Security Role

Türkiye has become one of Somalia’s most important bilateral security partners over the past decade.

Ankara established the TURKSOM military training facility in Mogadishu, where thousands of Somali soldiers have received training, including members of specialized units.

Türkiye has also provided military equipment and training to Somali forces, including the Gorgor commandos, while its broader defense relationship with Somalia has expanded into maritime security and the development of Somali naval capabilities.

The relationship is not limited to security. Türkiye has also become involved in Somalia’s infrastructure, economic development and humanitarian sectors, reflecting a partnership that has grown substantially since the establishment of formal defense cooperation between the two countries.

The expanding Turkish role comes at a time when Somalia is seeking to build stronger national security institutions capable of independently taking over responsibilities currently supported by international forces.

AUSSOM’s Changing Role

AUSSOM continues to provide support to Somali forces in the fight against Al-Shabaab, while also helping secure key locations and facilitate the gradual transition toward Somali-led security operations.

The mission faces significant financial and operational challenges, however, with international funding remaining critical to maintaining troops, bases, logistics and other capabilities.

The planned reduction and eventual withdrawal of African Union forces means that Somalia’s security institutions will increasingly be expected to fill the gaps left by international deployments.

This makes coordination with countries such as Türkiye particularly important. Unlike AUSSOM, which operates under an African Union mandate, Türkiye maintains a bilateral security relationship with Somalia.

The two forms of international engagement can complement each other, but they also require careful coordination to ensure that different military partnerships work toward a common national security strategy.

The latest meeting between Ambassador Diene and Ambassador Aktaş therefore carries significance beyond diplomatic engagement.

It highlights the growing need for international partners to coordinate their support as Somalia approaches a potentially decisive stage in its security transition.

For Mogadishu, the challenge will be to ensure that international military assistance contributes to building capable and sustainable Somali institutions rather than creating long-term dependence on foreign partners.

A successful transition will ultimately depend on whether Somali forces can assume greater responsibility for securing the country while international partners provide coordinated training, equipment, funding and technical assistance.

The AUSSOM-Türkiye discussions underline the continued importance of international cooperation, but they also come at a time when Somalia must increasingly take ownership of its security future and ensure that external partnerships remain aligned with its long-term national interests.

Leaders from countries contributing troops to the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) gathered in Uganda on Wednesday for a three-day summit aimed at determining the future of the peace support mission as it confronts an increasingly severe financial crisis.

The Special Summit of AUSSOM Troop-Contributing Countries (TCCs), running from July 29 to 31, has brought together heads of state and government from Burundi, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Uganda, alongside senior representatives from the African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Held under the theme “Sustaining Momentum in Somalia’s Stabilization Process,” the summit is expected to focus on the future of AUSSOM, regional security cooperation, Somalia’s security transition, and efforts to secure long-term and predictable funding for the mission.

The summit opened on Wednesday with a meeting of Chiefs of Defense Forces, followed by a session of defense ministers on Thursday.

Heads of state are expected to convene on Friday to consider recommendations from the military and ministerial meetings before adopting a final communiqué on the mission’s future.

Among the senior international participants are the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia, and the head of the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS).

The African Union delegation includes the AU Deputy Chairperson, the Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, and the Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson for Somalia, who also serves as the Head of AUSSOM. IGAD is represented by its Deputy Executive Secretary.

Uganda, the host nation, said the summit reflects its continued commitment to promoting peace, security, and regional stability under the African Union framework while working closely with the United Nations, IGAD, and other international partners.

The discussions come at a pivotal moment for AUSSOM, which replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in January 2025 as the AU’s new peace support mission.

AUSSOM continues to assist Somali security forces in operations against Al-Shabaab, while supporting stabilization efforts and the restoration of state authority in areas recovered from the militant group.

However, the mission faces growing uncertainty after the United States announced it would end funding for UNSOS after December 2026.

UNSOS provides critical logistical support—including food, fuel, medical services, transportation, engineering support, and casualty evacuation—for approximately 12,000 AUSSOM personnel. Without a replacement funding mechanism, officials warn the mission could face significant operational challenges.

Security analysts say the funding shortfall threatens not only AUSSOM’s effectiveness but also Somalia’s broader counterterrorism campaign.

They argue that troop-contributing countries and international partners must agree on a sustainable financing model to prevent security gaps that could be exploited by Al-Shabaab and undermine recent stabilization gains.

Somali officials maintain that national forces have recaptured several strategic areas over the past year and restored basic public services in some locations previously controlled by Al-Shabaab.

Nevertheless, international partners continue to press Somalia to present a credible roadmap for assuming full responsibility for national security as the African Union mission gradually transitions its role.

The Kampala summit also comes as Turkey expands its diplomatic and security engagement in Somalia.

Earlier this month, Ankara hosted talks between the Federal Government and opposition political leaders in an effort to ease political tensions and encourage dialogue on constitutional and electoral disputes—issues that many international partners view as essential to long-term stability.

The recommendations emerging from Kampala are expected to be submitted to the African Union Peace and Security Council and the United Nations Security Council, where they will help shape the next phase of the AU’s security role in Somalia.

The summit is expected to conclude with recommendations on AUSSOM’s future, including proposals for sustainable financing, stronger regional coordination, continued international support, and an accelerated but orderly transition toward Somali-led security.

Federal Government of Somalia is facing mounting international pressure to present a roadmap for assuming full responsibility for the country’s security as uncertainty over the future of the AUSSOM deepens following the United States’ decision to end funding for the UN support office that sustains the mission.

The pressure intensified after a recent African Union meeting in Addis Ababa, where AU officials formally requested Somalia to nominate representatives for consultations on AUSSOM’s future.

Those discussions are expected to culminate in a series of high-level meetings in Kampala, including technical consultations from July 22–24, meetings of Chiefs of Defence and Police on July 29, Defence Ministers on July 30, and a Summit of Troop-Contributing Countries on July 31, where the future of the mission will be a central agenda item.

U.S. Decision Creates Major Funding Crisis

The urgency follows a diplomatic note sent by Washington to the African Union on July 1, informing the organization that the United States will no longer finance the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) after December 2026.

Over the past decade, the United States has contributed nearly $2 billion toward UNSOS, which provides the logistical backbone for African Union peace operations in Somalia.

U.S. officials have reportedly become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as insufficient progress by Somali political leaders in assuming greater responsibility for national security and implementing meaningful security reforms.

UNSOS currently operates on an annual budget of approximately $481 million for the 2026–2027 fiscal year, with the United States contributing roughly 26 percent of that funding through assessed contributions.

Without UNSOS, AUSSOM would lose essential logistical support, including food supplies, fuel, water, transport, engineering services, medical care, communications, and casualty evacuation for nearly 12,000 African Union personnel deployed across Somalia.

Diplomatic sources say Washington’s decision reflects not only financial considerations but also growing concern over Somalia’s prolonged political disputes, the slow pace of security sector reforms, and the continued dependence of Somali institutions on international assistance.

Somalia Yet to Present a Comprehensive Transition Plan

International partners are now urging Mogadishu to produce a detailed transition strategy outlining how Somali security forces will gradually assume responsibilities currently carried out by AUSSOM.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has held several meetings with senior military and security officials to assess the readiness of the Somali National Army and police forces.

However, Somalia has yet to publish a comprehensive transition framework specifying which military bases will be transferred first, the timeline for troop withdrawals, the operational readiness of Somali forces, and the international support that will remain necessary during the transition.

Diplomats say the absence of a clear roadmap has complicated planning among troop-contributing countries, many of which are now reassessing their long-term commitments.

Uganda, the largest troop contributor, has already indicated that it intends to withdraw its forces after nearly two decades of deployment in Somalia.

Burundi has also reduced its participation following disagreements over troop allocations under the new AUSSOM structure, raising concerns that additional troop-contributing countries could reconsider their commitments if funding uncertainties persist.

Risk of a Security Vacuum

AUSSOM officially replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in January 2025 with a planned five-year mandate running through 2029.

The mission currently consists of approximately 12,000 personnel, including military troops, police officers, and civilian staff.

Security experts warn that if funding shortages force a premature drawdown, Somalia could face a dangerous security vacuum that Al-Shabaab would likely seek to exploit.

The group has already intensified attacks across central and southern Somalia while expanding its influence in several rural districts.

African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has called for a transition based on clear strategic benchmarks rather than arbitrary deadlines.

The AU Peace and Security Council has also established a dedicated task force to evaluate alternative funding mechanisms and long-term options for the mission.

Meanwhile, Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi recently met with the AU Special Representative, Ambassador El Hadji Ibrahima Diene, to discuss strengthening security cooperation despite the mission’s financial uncertainty.

While both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration, officials acknowledge that diplomatic assurances alone cannot resolve the widening funding gap.

Political Crisis Complicates Security Transition

The security transition is unfolding against the backdrop of one of Somalia’s deepest political crises in recent years.

Disputes over constitutional amendments, electoral reforms, and relations between the Federal Government and several Federal Member States have complicated efforts to build unified national security institutions.

International partners have increasingly linked Somalia’s political instability with the country’s security challenges, arguing that lasting progress against Al-Shabaab requires not only military capacity but also political consensus.

Several donors have privately expressed concern that continued political polarization could undermine the effectiveness of any future security transition, particularly if disagreements between Mogadishu and regional administrations continue to affect military coordination.

The Kampala Summit Could Shape Somalia’s Security Future

The upcoming Kampala meetings are expected to determine not only AUSSOM’s financing but also the broader trajectory of Somalia’s security transition.

Delegates are likely to discuss burden-sharing, alternative funding models, troop levels, and the conditions under which responsibilities can be transferred to Somali forces.

The central debate is no longer simply whether AUSSOM should remain in Somalia, but whether Somali institutions are prepared to sustain national security without the extensive international logistical and financial support that has underpinned peace operations for nearly two decades.

While the Kampala summit may provide temporary solutions to AUSSOM’s immediate funding challenges, analysts caution that it cannot resolve the underlying issue: Somalia’s continued dependence on external security assistance.

Without a credible transition plan, stronger national institutions, and broader political consensus, the country risks remaining reliant on international support long after the current mission was intended to end.