The Shabelle River has risen significantly near Jowhar and is nearing a key flood-risk threshold as forecasts point to moderate to heavy rainfall across several parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands, according to the latest outlook from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO-SWALIM) programme.
Data covering October 7–13 show that the river level at Jowhar increased by 2.22 metres in one week, climbing from 2.48 metres to 4.70 metres.
The latest reading places the river just 30 centimetres below the moderate flood-risk threshold of five metres and 55 centimetres below the high-risk mark of 5.25 metres.
Although the river has risen rapidly, the rate of increase appears to be easing. According to the report, the level rose by about 50 centimetres on October 4, compared with an increase of 20 centimetres by October 7.
The rising water comes as Somalia enters the October–December Deyr rainy season, a period when heavy rainfall can trigger flooding in riverine communities and low-lying areas.
Concerns have increased over the possibility of El Niño-related weather patterns bringing above-average rainfall to parts of the country.
FAO previously warned that some areas of central and southern Somalia could face a probability of up to 90% of receiving above-normal seasonal rainfall.
The Juba and Shabelle river basins were identified as areas requiring particular attention.
FAO-SWALIM’s latest outlook, which uses the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System, anticipates moderate to heavy rainfall across extensive areas, including Somaliland, Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan, as well as inland parts of central Somalia.
Rain is also expected in sections of the Ethiopian highlands, where precipitation can significantly affect river levels downstream in Somalia.
Heavy rainfall in Ethiopia can send floodwater into the Juba and Shabelle river systems, sometimes days after the rain has fallen upstream.
FAO has previously urged authorities and humanitarian organisations to monitor rainfall in the highlands alongside river measurements inside Somalia, allowing them to prepare for potential flood surges before they reach vulnerable communities.
While the Shabelle at Jowhar is approaching its flood-risk threshold, measurements from other monitoring points indicate different conditions along the river.
At Beledweyne, the water level stood at four metres after fluctuating earlier in the month. It reached 4.16 metres on October 3 before dropping to 3.78 metres two days later.
The latest reading remains 2.50 metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold of 6.50 metres.
The level at Beledweyne is also 1.90 metres lower than it was on the same date last year and approximately half a metre below the long-term average for early October.
At Deefow, the river remained relatively stable at 2.70 metres, compared with 2.73 metres a week earlier. This is still 3.80 metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold.
Bulo Burti recorded a more substantial weekly rise of 62 centimetres, bringing the river to 3.20 metres. Despite the increase, the level remains 3.30 metres below the moderate flood-risk mark.
Measurements along the Juba River have been comparatively steady. At Dollow, the river rose from 2.54 metres to 2.64 metres over the week, remaining 1.86 metres below its moderate flood threshold of 4.50 metres.
At Luuq, the level changed only slightly, increasing from 2.34 metres to 2.36 metres. The river remains more than three metres below the moderate flood-risk threshold at that monitoring station.
Some areas have already received substantial rainfall early in October. SWALIM data show that Bardhere in Gedo region recorded 93 millimetres during the first five days of the month, while Galkayo received 50 millimetres.
Both locations exceeded their typical rainfall totals for the entire month within those first five days.
However, rainfall has been unevenly distributed. Rain has extended across areas from eastern Gedo through Bay, Bakool and Hiiraan into central Somalia, while much of the Juba Valley, Lower Juba and coastal parts of Lower Shabelle have remained largely dry.
The forecast points to light to moderate rainfall in parts of Bay and Gedo and along the Lower Juba coast. By contrast, Middle Juba, inland areas of Lower Juba and sections of Lower Shabelle are expected to receive limited rain.
Even where local rainfall is low, riverine communities may remain vulnerable because water flowing from upstream catchments can raise river levels far downstream.
The latest warnings follow concerns that the 2026 Deyr season could bring serious flooding if strong El Niño conditions coincide with above-normal rainfall.
FAO has cited 1997 and 2023 as examples of years with comparable climate conditions, while stressing that these historical events do not determine what will happen this season.
Both years were associated with severe flooding in Somalia. The 2023 floods displaced large numbers of people, damaged infrastructure and destroyed crops and livestock. Historical data cited by FAO indicate that the 1997 floods killed more than 2,300 people.
The potential consequences make early preparation particularly important for communities living near rivers and in low-lying areas.
Authorities and humanitarian organisations are being urged to use the latest forecasts and river measurements to strengthen embankments, identify safe locations, prepare evacuation routes and position emergency supplies before water levels reach dangerous levels.
With the Shabelle at Jowhar approaching the moderate flood-risk threshold, continued monitoring will be essential in the coming days.
The extent of the threat will depend on rainfall over Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands, as well as how quickly water levels change at the country’s river monitoring stations.