Talks are getting underway in Nairobi aimed at finalizing an agreement to resolve a long-running political and security dispute between former Jubaland security minister Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur “Janan” and the administration of Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Ahmed Madobe.
The discussions come as Gedo remains a major flashpoint in the wider political and security rivalry between the Federal Government of Somalia and Jubaland.
The Nairobi meetings are expected to build on an earlier understanding between the sides, with a focus on easing tensions in Gedo and clarifying arrangements concerning security, local administration and political relations.
Janan and Gedo Deputy Governor Nasteex reportedly left Beled Hawo on Sunday and travelled to Kenya to attend the meetings.
The talks are said to involve representatives of the parties concerned, alongside Kenyan officials, Jubaland figures and other political actors involved in efforts to mediate the dispute.
A dispute rooted in Gedo’s wider power struggle
The disagreement between Janan and the Jubaland administration has its roots in a broader political struggle over control of Gedo, a strategically important region bordering Kenya and Ethiopia.
Janan previously served as Jubaland’s security minister under Ahmed Madobe before relations between the two men deteriorated. In 2021, Janan reached an agreement with the Federal Government and left Jubaland.
Reports at the time said the arrangement included plans to integrate forces associated with Janan into Somalia’s federal security structure.
The dispute resurfaced in subsequent years, particularly after Janan was given a role connected to security affairs in Gedo.
In 2025, fighting broke out in Beled Hawo between forces aligned with the Federal Government and forces supporting Jubaland, further deepening tensions between Mogadishu and Kismayo.
The conflict over Gedo has therefore become about more than Janan and Ahmed Madobe. It reflects a wider disagreement over who should control security forces, administer key towns and exercise political authority in the region.
Kenya’s role in the talks is significant because of Gedo’s long border with Kenya and the close links between the security situations on both sides of the frontier.
Beled Hawo and Doolow are particularly important because of their strategic locations near the borders with Kenya and Ethiopia. Both towns are important for trade, movement and security, meaning instability in Gedo can quickly have consequences beyond Somalia’s borders.
For Nairobi, resolving tensions in Gedo could also help reduce the risk of renewed armed confrontations and improve security along its northeastern frontier.
The Nairobi talks offer an opportunity to settle a dispute that has repeatedly threatened to turn political disagreements into armed confrontation.
However, deep mistrust between the parties remains one of the biggest obstacles.
Any lasting agreement would likely need to clearly address who controls security in Gedo, how forces linked to the different sides will be managed, the role of local authorities and how future political disputes will be resolved.
A deal that does not clearly settle those questions could leave the underlying dispute unresolved.
The outcome of the Nairobi meetings could therefore have wider implications for relations between Mogadishu and Jubaland. If the parties reach and implement a durable agreement, it could ease tensions in Gedo and reduce the risk of further clashes.
If the agreement fails to address the core issues or is not implemented, however, the region could once again become a center of political and military confrontation.