Some security experts warn that if the country’s political dispute persists, government forces may lack the necessary coordination and cooperation for the campaign against Al-Shabaab, potentially affording the group new opportunities to expand its attacks.
There are analysts who believe Al-Shabaab still possesses the capability to undermine the security of the capital, while other experts maintain that the group currently lacks sufficient military strength to directly seize control of Mogadishu.
This situation requires distinguishing between two scenarios: Al-Shabaab increasing its attacks and influence within Mogadishu versus gaining the capacity to capture the entire city.
What Do Security Experts Say About the Possibility of Capturing Mogadishu?
One of the most prominent analysts on Somali affairs to address this threat is Matt Bryden of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
In a report he issued on November 17, 2025, he warned that the dispute between the federal government and regional member states could weaken state capacity, thereby giving Al-Shabaab an opportunity to augment its power.
Bryden specifically pointed to:
• Political fragmentation among Somali leaders.
• Weaknesses and challenges facing government forces.
• The decline in support from African Union forces.
• Al-Shabaab’s capacity to expand its intelligence network.
• Attacks executed by the group within Mogadishu.
In his report, he expressed concern that without major shifts in Somalia’s political and security architecture, the federal government could face severe risks regarding its retention of the capital.
Other Experts Argue Al-Shabaab Is Incapable of Capturing Mogadishu
Conversely, a report by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) presented a perspective divergent from Bryden’s warning.
The report stated that although Al-Shabaab approached Mogadishu in 2025, other specialists on Somali affairs rejected the assessment that the group possesses the military strength required to capture the capital.
Reasons cited by these experts include:
• The presence of thousands of government troops in Mogadishu.
• Military support from international partners.
• The operational capacity of state security agencies.
• The nature of Al-Shabaab’s attacks, which do not equate to the capability to govern a major city.
The EUAA also indicated that while Al-Shabaab has the capacity to maintain clandestine networks, intelligence gathering, and security movements within the city, capturing territory and executing covert attacks are two distinct matters.
What Does the Standoff Between Hassan Sheikh and the Opposition Mean for Mogadishu’s Security?
The primary source of anxiety is the political friction involving Villa Somalia, the opposition, and certain regional member states.
Disputes surrounding the constitution, elections, and government term limits threaten to undermine institutional inter-agency cooperation.
Security experts place paramount importance on ensuring that government forces are not distracted by political wrangling, but instead operate under a unified command structure and strategic plan.
Should the government leadership and the opposition fail to forge a political agreement, security cooperation could deteriorate further.
A report published by African Security Analysis on November 4, 2026, asserted that the foremost threat to Somalia is not necessarily sudden collapse, but rather a gradual erosion of force coordination, logistical support, and federal-regional cooperation.
The Withdrawal of Ugandan Troops and the Future of Mogadishu’s Defense
Another vital dynamic is the ongoing transition involving Ugandan forces in Somalia.
The Associated Press reported on November 3, 2026, that Ugandan forces have begun withdrawing from Somalia, with AUSSOM planning to assume control of four strategic locations: Sabid-Anole, Bariire, Awdheegle, and Bulonagad.
These locations are critical to the defense and security of areas surrounding Mogadishu.
Apprehension has been expressed that if base handovers are improperly managed, Al-Shabaab could exploit resulting security vacuums.
Experts also caution that Somali forces require sustained financial support, logistics, transport, and continuous medical backing to assume full security responsibility.
To What Extent Does Al-Shabaab Hold Power Inside Mogadishu?
Although the Somali government controls Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab retains the capacity to execute bombings, targeted assassinations, and operations directed against state facilities.
A UK government security assessment on Mogadishu, updated on July 28, 2025, stated that Al-Shabaab maintains no open, overt presence governing the city, but operates underground networks and intelligence cells capable of targeting government offices and perceived state sympathizers.
This underscores that territorial conquest and covert strike capabilities are fundamentally different phenomena.
What Are the Five Factors That Will Determine Mogadishu’s Security?
Five variables merit close monitoring:
1. Force Unity: Ensuring government forces maintain a unified command structure.
2. Political Agreement: Achieving a resolution between the government and opposition regarding constitutional and electoral disputes.
3. International Support: Securing continued funding and capacity for AUSSOM operations.
4. Countering Al-Shabaab Networks: Equipping intelligence agencies to track and dismantle internal security threats.
5. Regional Stability: Ensuring political disputes do not escalate into armed conflicts that distract security forces.
Three Potential Scenarios Facing Somalia
| Security Stability | Government and security forces remain unified, with insurgent attacks effectively contained. |
| Security Pressure | Al-Shabaab escalates covert attacks and asymmetric influence. |
| State Weakness | Political and security crises compound, severely debilitating state authority. |
These are analytical scenarios rather than definitive predictions of future developments.
The overarching warning is that political friction, institutional security vulnerabilities, and declining international backing risk generating conditions that Al-Shabaab can readily exploit.