A new report by Ethiopia’s Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) argues that Al-Shabaab’s greatest strength is no longer measured by the territory it controls, but by its ability to function as a parallel government across large parts of Somalia.
The report, titled Beyond the Map: Why Al-Shabaab’s Shadow Administration Redefines Ethiopia’s Strategic Stakes, says the group’s influence stems from its administrative reach rather than its military presence alone.
According to the report, Al-Shabaab has established a sophisticated “shadow administration” that collects taxes, controls the movement of people and goods, gathers intelligence, settles disputes, and enforces its own rules in areas where the Somali government’s authority is weak.
The report stresses that military victories alone do not determine success, as the group’s networks often remain active even after it loses control of towns or districts.
The IFA also notes that in some government-held areas, Al-Shabaab continues to influence local governance through taxation, judicial services, and informal administration.
It argues that the group’s ability to maintain these parallel structures allows it to generate a steady flow of revenue, intelligence, and logistical support despite ongoing military pressure.
A key finding of the report is that some traders and residents turn to Al-Shabaab’s systems because they are viewed as more predictable than state institutions, particularly in areas affected by corruption or inconsistent enforcement.
While the report emphasizes that this does not confer legitimacy on the group, it warns that such perceptions strengthen Al-Shabaab’s resilience and undermine state authority.
The report further highlights the role of Al-Shabaab’s courts, which continue to attract some businesses and civilians seeking quicker dispute resolution than government institutions can provide.
However, it stresses that these courts operate through intimidation, coercion, and harsh punishments rather than the rule of law.
The report concludes that defeating Al-Shabaab will require more than military operations. It argues that the Somali government and its partners must strengthen governance, public institutions, justice systems, and service delivery in areas vulnerable to the group’s influence.
Without addressing these governance gaps, the report warns, Al-Shabaab is likely to retain its parallel administrative network even where it loses control on the battlefield.