Somalia faces growing fiscal pressure from the cost of maintaining its security forces as international assistance comes under strain, according to a World Bank report examining the country’s public finances.
The bank’s latest Public Finance Review estimates that Somalia’s annual security costs exceed $1 billion, with a substantial share financed by international partners outside the federal government’s national budget.
This reliance on external funding leaves the country vulnerable to changes in donor priorities and reductions in international support.
The World Bank warned that planned reductions in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) could place additional pressure on the federal government.
Authorities may have to assume security costs they cannot readily afford or face a decline in operational capacity if external assistance is withdrawn without a sustainable financing plan.
The warning comes amid uncertainty over the future of support provided by the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which supplies essential logistical services to African Union forces deployed in the country.
Reuters reported on September 18 that Washington had indicated support for winding down UNSOS operations over a 12-month period, followed by the office’s closure.
Sources cited by the news agency said the drawdown was expected to begin in January 2027, although the timetable remained subject to consultations at the UN Security Council.
The proposal differs from earlier expectations that the support would end by late 2026 and concerns UNSOS assistance rather than the termination of all United Nations operations in Somalia.
UNSOS provides critical services to African Union personnel, including food, water, fuel, medical support and transportation. Any reduction in these services could create additional logistical and financial challenges for forces engaged in operations against al-Shabab.
Somalia continues to face a persistent security threat from al-Shabab, particularly in the central and southern regions. The federal government must therefore balance military and security requirements against competing demands for public services and development spending.
Somalia’s 2026 national budget allocated approximately $271 million to defence and national security, up from $257 million in 2025.
Of the 2026 allocation, about $185 million was earmarked for defence and $86 million for national security, while the armed forces were allocated approximately $177 million.
However, these budget allocations cover only part of the country’s broader security financing needs.
International contributions provide additional support that is not fully reflected in the national budget, complicating efforts to assess the government’s total security expenditure and plan for possible funding shortfalls.
The World Bank also identified weaknesses in military payroll management, the expansion of personnel numbers and the concentration of spending on salaries and allowances as factors that could undermine the effectiveness of security expenditure.
It recommended regular verification of military payroll records using biometric identification systems to improve the accuracy of personnel data and ensure payments reach eligible service members.
The bank also urged authorities to link security budgets more closely to operational requirements and the capabilities needed to carry out military assignments, rather than focusing primarily on troop numbers.
Somalia’s limited domestic revenue base further constrains its ability to absorb additional security costs.
The report estimates that domestic revenue amounted to 6.3% of gross domestic product in 2025, a level that remains insufficient to meet the government’s basic service delivery and development needs while covering potentially rising security expenses.
The World Bank called for security-related financial risks to be incorporated into broader fiscal planning, alongside preparations for declining grants and other pressures on government revenue.
It said stronger domestic revenue collection and more efficient public spending would help Somalia manage the transition, although international assistance is likely to remain important during the reform process.
The central challenge for Somalia is to maintain security gains while gradually building the financial capacity to sustain its own forces.
Without reliable funding arrangements, improvements in territorial control and military operations could become harder to maintain as international support changes.