An investigation published by The Guardian has raised concerns about the combined dangers facing civilians in southern Somalia, where US airstrikes and the threat of seasonal flooding along the Jubba River are adding to the risks confronting communities living in areas controlled by Al-Shabaab.
The report describes how residents in and around Jilib have experienced repeated drone flights and airstrikes, which some say have restricted their movements and made it more difficult to leave areas exposed to military operations.
Local residents and humanitarian sources cited by the newspaper alleged that US military strikes have pushed civilians closer to the Jubba River, increasing their vulnerability as seasonal Deyr rains raise the risk of flooding.
The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) has rejected the allegations, saying it does not target civilians and does not use weather conditions or flooding as a military tactic.
The investigation highlights the difficult circumstances facing people in Jilib and other settlements near the river, where concerns over airstrikes, military activity and rising water levels have converged.
An unnamed source familiar with conditions along the Jubba River told The Guardian that airstrikes were driving residents towards the river, potentially exposing them to greater danger as water levels rise.
Some residents also reported frequent drone activity overhead and said airstrikes had damaged homes, killed livestock and harmed civilians.
Ayni Ali, a 27-year-old mother of six, told the newspaper that her home in Jilib was only about five metres from the Jubba River. She said floodwater had risen to waist level and that repeated airstrikes had made it difficult for residents to leave the area.
Farhan Ahmed, 35, who fled Jilib in September, said an airstrike had destroyed five houses in his neighbourhood and that he had seen bodies lying in the streets.
Other people interviewed by the newspaper also described the destruction they had witnessed and the difficulties caused by the attacks.
These accounts reflect serious concerns among residents, although the circumstances of individual incidents and responsibility for the reported civilian harm require independent verification.
AFRICOM has disputed claims that its airstrikes are intended to displace civilians or that flooding is being used as part of military operations.
A spokesperson told The Guardian that the command targets lawful military objectives rather than civilians and takes measures to minimise the risk of civilian casualties.
The spokesperson also said US forces do not use weather or flooding as a weapon of war. However, the newspaper reported that AFRICOM declined to provide details about possible civilian casualties from some strikes, citing operational security concerns.
The investigation also examined discrepancies between accounts from residents and the number of airstrikes publicly acknowledged by the US military.
People living in areas controlled by Al-Shabaab described frequent drone activity and air attacks, with some saying the aircraft were present almost daily.
By comparison, The Guardian said AFRICOM’s publicly available records showed one strike in Jilib in August and six in September.
The difference raises questions about how military operations are recorded, how potential civilian casualties are assessed and whether allegations of harm are being adequately investigated.
The report also noted that Türkiye conducts drone operations in Somalia but does not routinely publish detailed information about its strikes.
The newspaper revisited an investigation it published in June concerning a US airstrike in Jamaame on November 15, 2025. That earlier investigation reported that at least 12 civilians, including eight children, had been killed in the attack.
AFRICOM, however, told Al Jazeera on October 20 that its assessment had not established that US forces were responsible for the reported civilian casualties.
The differing accounts have renewed calls for independent investigations into airstrikes and allegations of civilian deaths.
Beyond the military operations, communities along the Jubba River face heightened exposure to flooding during the rainy season. The river basin is particularly vulnerable when heavy rainfall combines with water flowing downstream from the Ethiopian highlands.
In September, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned of a high likelihood of above-average rainfall across parts of central and southern Somalia between October and December.
The agency put the probability of above-normal rainfall at 90 per cent in several parts of the country, while cautioning that such forecasts do not automatically mean severe flooding will occur.
Water flowing from the Ethiopian highlands can also raise levels in the Jubba and Shabelle rivers, even when rainfall inside Somalia is limited. This creates additional uncertainty for communities in Jilib, Jamaame and other settlements situated close to the riverbanks.
Another concern raised by The Guardian involves the possible use of humanitarian flood-risk mapping data in military operations. Such information is generally intended to help aid organisations identify vulnerable communities and prepare emergency responses.
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, told the newspaper that using information collected to protect civilians in ways that could expose them to harm would raise serious concerns about the protection of humanitarian data.
However, allegations that flood-mapping information has been used directly to support military strikes have not been independently established.
Further evidence would be required to determine whether humanitarian data was accessed or used for operational purposes.
The report also highlighted growing medical needs in Kismayo, where the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) treated 205 people with weapon-related injuries during the year.
According to The Guardian, this represented a 43 per cent increase compared with the number recorded in 2025.
The figure does not establish that all those injuries resulted from airstrikes, but it points to the continuing demand for medical treatment and support for people affected by armed conflict.
Jubaland’s commissioner for internally displaced people, Ali Adan Ali, warned that a shortage of boats could leave thousands of people stranded on the eastern side of the river, making it difficult for them to receive assistance from Kismayo.
He also said authorities had identified 327 settlements at risk of flooding, but warnings had reached only some of those locations.
Limited transport and access could therefore complicate efforts to evacuate residents and deliver emergency supplies if water levels rise significantly.
The humanitarian situation is further complicated by food insecurity, displacement and the potential destruction of farmland.
An assessment released by the Somali government and the United Nations on September 23 projected that 5.4 million people in Somalia would face crisis-level food insecurity or worse between October and December 2026.
Severe flooding could damage crops, kill livestock and disrupt roads used by humanitarian organisations, making it harder to reach communities already struggling with insecurity and limited access to essential services.
The Guardian’s investigation presents a picture of overlapping risks for civilians in southern Somalia, particularly in Jilib and Jamaame, where military operations and seasonal flooding could combine to deepen an already difficult humanitarian situation.
AFRICOM has firmly rejected allegations that its operations deliberately endanger civilians or use flooding as a military tactic.
Establishing what happened during individual strikes, the extent of civilian casualties and whether any violations occurred will require credible, independent investigations.
The situation also highlights the need to protect civilians, ensure that people can reach safe areas and allow humanitarian organisations to deliver assistance without obstruction.
For communities along the Jubba River, access to evacuation routes, reliable flood warnings and emergency medical support could become increasingly important as the Deyr rainy season progresses.