The United Nations has warned that flooding caused by heavy rainfall expected in the coming months could displace more than 800,000 people in Somalia, as the country faces a rainy season projected to be stronger than normal levels.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) stated that new projections produced in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council indicate that 874,319 people are at risk of displacement between the months of October and December 2026.
This projection indicates that flooding could account for 92% of the forecasted displacement.
This warning comes as weather conditions are expected to deteriorate further under the influence of the El Niño phenomenon, which is linked to shifts in rainfall patterns and flood risks across parts of the Horn of Africa.
Manuel Marques Pereira, Chief of Mission for IOM Somalia, stated that there is a distinct possibility that hundreds of thousands of people could lose their homes within a matter of weeks.
He noted that many families facing this risk have previously experienced displacement and currently possess extremely limited financial resources and assets to manage another emergency situation.
IOM stated that an opportunity still exists to mitigate the impact of the flooding, but immediate funding is required to support vulnerable populations, help protect their homes and livelihoods, and relocate them to safe ground when necessary.
The agency stated it has received only 14% ($16.62 million) of the funding required to prepare for and respond to the impacts of El Niño-related flooding.
The UN warning also highlights that initial signs of flooding are already emerging, with river levels approaching bankfull thresholds while heavy rains have damaged homes in certain areas.
Beyond displacement, the flooding poses serious risks to agriculture and crops, threatens to contaminate water sources, and risks isolating communities in affected areas, severely restricting access to essential services.
The UN weather agency also warned that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon could reach unprecedented intensity levels.
United Nations officials have called for Somalia and neighboring nations Kenya and Ethiopia to rapidly receive necessary supplies and operational support before the predicted heavy rainfall commences.