Somalia has long been engaged in efforts to build a government capable of exercising full authority over its territory, protecting its citizens, securing its borders, providing basic services, and establishing a stable political system across the country.
Although Somalia has a federal government, parliament, security institutions, federal member states, and an evolving political system, significant obstacles still prevent the government from functioning uniformly across the entire nation.
Among the greatest challenges are Al-Shabaab, which still holds power and influence in many parts of the country; Somaliland, which has declared independence; disputes between the federal government and federal member states; and the 4.5 power-sharing system that has long served as the foundation of Somali politics.
These issues are interconnected, and sometimes a crisis arising from one exacerbates the others.
Al-Shabaab remains the primary security challenge obstructing Somalia’s statehood.
Even though Somali government forces and international partners have conducted operations in many areas, the group still maintains power and influence in parts of southern and central Somalia.
A report issued by the European Union Agency for Asylum stated that Somalia’s security situation remains mixed, with Al-Shabaab maintaining influence in parts of the countryside, vital roads, and areas where the federal government cannot fully govern.
The problem with Al-Shabaab is not merely the attacks it carries out in cities.
The greater challenge is that areas recaptured by the government from the group do not always quickly transition into permanent administrative governance.
When the government expels Al-Shabaab from an area, it is required to introduce military forces, police, courts, local administration, and public services for the community.
If this is not done, it is possible for the group to return to the area or maintain its influence over the population.
Reports on Somalia’s situation also indicate that political division and internal disputes can provide Al-Shabaab with opportunities to exploit areas where the government is weak.
Somaliland has claimed independence from Somalia since 1991, establishing its own administrative institutions, military, parliament, and unique political system.
The Federal Government of Somalia and the vast majority of national politics view Somaliland as part of the Federal Republic of Somalia, whereas Somaliland maintains that it is an independent state.
This means the federal government does not directly govern the territory administered by Somaliland.
The issue is not confined solely to domestic politics; it also impacts Somalia’s relations with neighboring countries and global powers.
The dispute between Somaliland and Somalia became particularly sensitive following the 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum of understanding (MoU), which the Somali government strongly opposed.
Consequently, if Somalia desires a government that exercises full authority over the territory it claims, the Somaliland issue requires a long-term political resolution.
The Conflict Between the Federal Government and Federal Member States: Federalism was chosen in Somalia as a system to distribute power between the central government and federal member states.
However, the major challenge has been that the parties have not yet fully agreed on where the powers of the federal government end and where the powers of the federal member states begin.
Many contentious issues have arisen, such as elections, security, military forces, revenue, resources, regional administration, and foreign relations.
The EUAA stated that relations between the federal government and some federal member states have entered difficult phases, with Puntland and Jubbaland notably distancing themselves from the federal government, while relations between the central administration and certain other regional states have fluctuated.
When the central government and a federal member state dispute jurisdiction over a crucial matter, national state capacity is weakened.
Moreover, political disputes can escalate into security conflicts, further complicating the establishment of unified national institutions in the country.
Puntland and Jubbaland are among the regional administrations that hold starkly different views from the federal government.
The dispute between Puntland and Mogadishu intensified following controversies over the constitution and electoral processes.
Puntland adopted a stance of not recognizing certain federal government measures until a political agreement is reached regarding constitutional affairs.
Jubbaland has also experienced intense conflicts with the federal government, particularly regarding electoral matters and security administration.
The EUAA stated that relations between the federal government, Puntland, and Jubbaland have reached a very difficult stage, with certain political disputes even resulting in armed clashes.
This situation highlights the challenges Somalia faces in building a federal system agreed upon by all parties.
Another challenge that has long impacted Somali politics is the 4.5 system. This system structured Somali politics on clan-based power-sharing, allocating comparable shares to the four major clans, while assigning a 0.5 share to minority groups.
The 4.5 system is not enshrined in the Provisional Constitution, but it has long served as the method for distributing parliamentary seats and other political positions.
The system has its supporters. Many believe that the 4.5 system contributed to ensuring that various clans remained included within the political framework, particularly during periods when Somalia was recovering from civil war.
Critics argue that the system reduces politics to clan affiliation rather than citizenship, individual votes, and merit.
The U.S. Department of State has also documented that civil society actors, certain minority clans, and politicians have called for the elimination of the 4.5 system, arguing that it unequally represents certain segments of society.
The greatest dilemma is that there is no consensus on what should replace 4.5.
Some favor a universal suffrage (one-person, one-vote) election, which gives every citizen the opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice.
Others fear that if the clan system is transitioned away from too quickly, major political groups or dominant clans could secure more power than they currently hold.
Therefore, 4.5 is not merely a mechanism for seat allocation; it has become a sensitive political agreement tied to inter-clan trust and how the nation’s power is shared.
Another ongoing problem facing Somalia is the lack of a comprehensive political agreement regarding constitutional issues and the state-building framework.
The 2012 Provisional Constitution has long served as the legal foundation of the government, but critical components concerning federalism, power-sharing, and elections have remained contentious.
Constitutional disputes sometimes turn into major political conflicts. A new report on Somalia’s situation stated that political friction has intensified as the federal government and the opposition disagree on constitutional amendments and the electoral process.
When the country’s supreme law is not mutually agreed upon, it becomes difficult for state institutions to possess authority and legitimacy accepted by all parties.
Somalia’s problem is not Al-Shabaab alone, nor is it merely the 4.5 system. All of these challenges are interconnected.
When the federal government and federal member states disagree, it becomes difficult to establish a fully unified national army.
When politicians are preoccupied with power struggles, the opportunity to unify counter-insurgency efforts against Al-Shabaab diminishes.
When 4.5 remains the primary foundation of politics, transitioning the country to a one-person, one-vote system becomes difficult.
When Somaliland and the federal government fail to reach an agreement, achieving a government that all Somalis equally embrace remains complex.
Consequently, Somalia faces simultaneous challenges spanning security, politics, constitutional affairs, and national unity.
If Somalia desires a government that genuinely functions across the entire country, a broad political agreement is required.
The federal government and federal member states must resolve their division of powers, security forces, finances, resources, elections, and national administration.
It is also essential that the constitution becomes an agreement embraced by all political actors rather than a perpetual source of conflict.
The war against Al-Shabaab must be accompanied by the establishment of functioning administration.
Where the group is expelled, if local governance, police, judiciary, and public services are not instituted, security victories cannot become sustainable.
Furthermore, the Somaliland issue requires sustained political dialogue, working toward a solution where Somalis can negotiate peacefully.