The allegations have raised questions about the impact of the military campaign on civilians, although claims that US forces are deliberately exploiting flood risks as a weapon of war remain unproven and are rejected by US officials.

Cayni Ali, a 27-year-old mother of six living in Jilib, described how floodwater rose to her waist as the river threatened her home, located just metres from its banks.

She said repeated drone attacks had made it difficult for residents to move safely through the town, leaving many families increasingly exposed to the rising water.

“The drones come all the time,” Ali said, describing damage across the town and alleging that civilians and livestock had been killed.

Asho Omar, from the nearby village of Malenda, also said frequent airstrikes had restricted movement and pushed people towards the Juba River. She described the situation as dangerous, with residents struggling to escape the violence.

Jilib is a major al-Shabaab stronghold in southern Somalia, and access to the area is severely restricted.

Accounts from residents who have fled offer a rare picture of conditions inside the town, where witnesses describe damaged homes, civilian casualties and bodies left in public areas. These accounts have not been independently verified in full.

The military campaign has also drawn scrutiny over the scale and transparency of US operations in Somalia. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) has declined to provide some operational details, citing security concerns.

Analysts say limited public information about individual strikes can make it difficult to establish the extent of civilian harm or determine responsibility for attacks.

Some sources monitoring the Juba floodplain have alleged that the offensive is driving civilians into areas vulnerable to flooding as El Niño conditions threaten to intensify seasonal rainfall.

They argue that the combination of airstrikes, restricted movement and rising water could leave thousands of people trapped in dangerous locations.

However, there is no publicly established evidence that US forces have adopted a deliberate strategy of using floods to kill or displace civilians.

AFRICOM has firmly denied the allegations. A spokesperson said the command does not target civilians, conduct operations to displace populations or use weather and flooding as methods of warfare.

The command said it targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to reduce the risk of civilian casualties.

The concerns come against the backdrop of Somalia’s experience with devastating floods in 2023, when exceptionally heavy rainfall caused widespread inundation and displaced more than 1.2 million people.

Jilib and surrounding settlements lie in a low-lying area vulnerable to flooding, while communities along the Juba River depend heavily on agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods.

Residents say the effects of previous floods remain visible. Halimo Abdikadir, from Kamsuuma south of Jilib, recalled how floodwaters destroyed her home and left the surrounding area covered in mud.

Arbey Famu, from Ahmed Yare, said water had already submerged her maize and sorghum crops, raising fears that another severe flooding season could destroy food supplies and sources of income.

Humanitarian agencies have warned that the Juba River basin faces significant flood risks.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has also raised concerns about the potential for severe flooding, while UN agencies have identified the area as particularly vulnerable.

The combination of conflict, damaged infrastructure and limited access to emergency assistance could make evacuation especially difficult.

Ali Adan Ali, the Jubaland official responsible for displaced people, said local authorities had identified hundreds of flood-prone areas.

He warned that the lack of boats could prevent thousands of people living in al-Shabaab-controlled territory on the eastern side of the river from reaching safer locations around Kismayo, near the river’s mouth.

Ali recalled that during the 2023 floods, about 19,000 people were stranded for a week without food. He said preparations for another emergency were inadequate and urged faster action before conditions deteriorated further.

The humanitarian response is also constrained by funding shortages. Somalia’s aid budget has fallen sharply from previous years, leaving less money available for flood protection, emergency transport and relief operations.

In many communities, residents say there are few effective barriers along the riverbanks, while existing earth embankments are too weak to withstand major flooding.

The threat of flooding is unfolding alongside reports of repeated airstrikes in and around Jilib. Farhan Ahmed, who fled the town last month, said attacks occurred frequently and described a strike that destroyed five homes in his neighbourhood.

Other residents alleged that civilians were among those killed, while some bodies were left without burial. These accounts could not be independently confirmed, and the US military has not provided a complete public assessment of civilian casualties linked to the reported attacks.

Yusuf Siidi, from the area near Jamame, said three teenagers were killed in one strike. Maryan Salah, who lives near Jamame, recalled a separate drone attack in which a piece of burning metal landed close to her two-year-old daughter.

AFRICOM acknowledged conducting a drone strike near Jamame on March 19, although available information does not establish whether that was the incident she described.

There are also questions about the number of strikes being carried out.

According to the article’s account of official US records, AFRICOM reported six strikes in the preceding month and 11 between the beginning of August and the time of reporting, while residents described a much more frequent pattern of attacks.

The discrepancy has prompted analysts to question whether all operations are being publicly attributed. AFRICOM, however, says it discloses all airstrikes conducted under its authority in Somalia and does not maintain a secret or unannounced strike count.

Turkey has also conducted drone operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia, but it typically releases limited information about its military activities.

The involvement of multiple foreign partners can further complicate efforts to establish responsibility for individual attacks when public details are scarce.

For civilians, the consequences extend beyond airstrikes and flooding. Displacement, food shortages and limited access to healthcare are worsening conditions across southern Somalia.

Families fleeing the Juba valley say they struggle to find enough food, with some surviving on a single small meal each day while trying to avoid the fighting.

The situation is also severe in displacement camps around Kismayo, where drought and reductions in humanitarian assistance have placed additional pressure on vulnerable families.

Shukri Ahmed, who leads the Galbeed displacement camp, described worsening living conditions and deaths among people sheltering in makeshift accommodation.

Health workers say children arriving from areas controlled by al-Shabaab are often severely malnourished and require urgent treatment.

Zakaria Mohammed, head nurse at an International Committee of the Red Cross-supported hospital in Kismayo, said children from conflict-affected areas were arriving in critical condition.

He reported a sharp rise in child malnutrition cases this year, adding to fears that further flooding and displacement could deepen the crisis.

Xaawo Nacdoor fled Jamame at night after her 14-month-old daughter, Faadumo, became critically ill. She said al-Shabaab had prevented her from leaving to seek treatment, forcing her to undertake a difficult journey on foot with her child.

After three days with little water, the toddler arrived at hospital severely dehydrated but survived following treatment.

Many families who reach safety say they are reluctant to return to areas under al-Shabaab control, citing restrictions on education, healthcare and access to basic necessities, alongside the danger posed by ongoing fighting.

With the rainy season threatening to raise river levels further, humanitarian organisations and local authorities face a narrowing window to prepare evacuations and deliver assistance.

For communities caught between armed conflict and a potentially devastating flood season, the immediate priorities are access to safe routes, emergency transport, food, medical care and protection from further harm.

Whether the military campaign has deliberately exploited flood risks remains an allegation, but the danger facing civilians along the Juba River is acute.

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