The negotiations, mediated by members of the international community, resumed after weeks of suspension but quickly broke down as the Federal Government and opposition representatives failed to bridge their differences over the country’s electoral roadmap.

The talks are intended to resolve the political crisis triggered by the extension of the mandates of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose constitutional term expired on June 15, 2026, and the Federal Parliament, whose mandate ended in April 2026.

The extensions have been rejected by opposition groups, which argue they lack constitutional legitimacy and have deepened the country’s political divisions.

The dispute has already led to armed clashes in Mogadishu. In June, fighting erupted between forces aligned with the opposition and troops loyal to the Federal Government in the districts of Hawl-Wadaag, Abdiaziz, and Warta Nabadda (Wardhiigley).

More than 10 people were killed, while hundreds of residents were displaced by the violence, highlighting the security risks posed by the unresolved political standoff.

International mediation expands

The talks were initially facilitated solely by Turkey, which has long maintained close diplomatic and security ties with Somalia. However, opposition leaders questioned Ankara’s neutrality, arguing that it was too closely aligned with the Federal Government.

Following those objections, the mediation team was expanded to include diplomats from the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and the African Union.

The broader mediation effort aims to help the rival sides reach a consensus on an electoral framework and prevent further political instability.

Despite four rounds of negotiations, the discussions have repeatedly stalled over fundamental disagreements on how Somalia’s next elections should be organized.

What are the main sticking points?

Monday’s meeting brought together representatives of the Federal Government and delegates from the Somali Future Council, the main opposition coalition, alongside other opposition groups.

Discussions focused primarily on the electoral model, the composition of election management bodies, and who should oversee the voting process.

According to sources who spoke to Kaab TV, the opposition is proposing a two-tier electoral commission, consisting of both federal and state-level election bodies, similar to the system used during Somalia’s 2021–2022 electoral process.

The opposition, supported by the regional administrations of Puntland and Jubaland, also wants parliamentary seats to remain allocated under the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula during the transitional period.

However, they are proposing a significant expansion of the number of delegates and polling locations to make the process more inclusive while the country prepares for universal suffrage.

Federal Government representatives, however, insisted that the current nine-member National Electoral Commission, appointed in late 2025, should remain responsible for organizing the elections.

The commission has been rejected by Puntland, Jubaland, and other opposition groups, which argue it lacks political neutrality because it was established without broad consultation.

The Federal Government is also reportedly opposed to creating multiple election bodies, preferring a single national commission to oversee the entire process.

Although both sides publicly support Somalia’s long-term transition to one-person, one-vote elections, they remain sharply divided over how that transition should be managed and what political guarantees should be put in place to ensure confidence in the electoral process.

Unresolved regional disputes

Several contentious issues were left off the agenda, including how elections should be conducted in territories controlled by Al-Shabaab, which continues to hold large areas of southern and central Somalia.

The talks also did not address the status of the North East Somalia Administration, headquartered in Las Anod, which was established in August 2025 and later recognized by the Federal Government.

Opposition leaders also objected to what they describe as Federal Government interference in regional state elections.

They point to the June 2026 leadership change in South West State, where a Federal Government-backed election installed Adan Madobe as the new regional leader after former President Abdiaziz Laftagareen was removed from Baidoa by Federal Government forces and allied clan militias.

Since then, recurring clashes have been reported in and around Baidoa between forces loyal to Laftagareen, who continues to claim he is the legitimate president, and those supporting the new administration.

The opposition has also accused Mogadishu of influencing political developments in Galmudug, where former President Ahmed Abdi Kariye (Qoor Qoor) recently announced he would not seek another term following what critics described as sustained political pressure from the Federal Government.

Elections are also expected to begin soon in Hirshabelle, where opposition groups fear a similar pattern of federal intervention.

Sources told Kaab TV that the Federal Government refused to formally include the issue of regional state elections in Monday’s negotiations.

International mediators seek compromise

Diplomatic sources say international mediators are now preparing a new compromise proposal aimed at breaking the deadlock.

According to preliminary information, the proposal could include holding one-person, one-vote elections within a defined timeframe, establishing a unified electoral commission jointly agreed upon by the Federal Government and the opposition, and introducing political safeguards designed to build confidence among all stakeholders while preserving Somalia’s democratic transition.

Although both camps agree in principle that Somalia should eventually adopt universal suffrage, deep disagreements remain over who should administer the elections, how election officials should be appointed, and what mechanisms are needed to ensure the process is viewed as impartial and credible.

Political analysts warn that if the impasse continues, Somalia could face a deeper constitutional legitimacy crisis and renewed instability.

With multiple political actors maintaining armed forces loyal to their respective camps, observers fear the failure of negotiations could increase the risk of further armed confrontations unless a political settlement is reached in the coming weeks.

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The first phase of negotiations, led by a mediation committee comprising traditional elders and politicians from the Nugaal region, has now concluded.

While the talks were underway, General Jimcaale Jama Takar, the commander of Somalia’s Danab Special Forces, arrived in Garowe on Friday evening despite having previously been barred from entering Puntland territory.

Knowledgeable sources close to the negotiations said the preliminary agreement, facilitated by a committee chaired by former Puntland President Senator Abdirahman Mohamed Farole, includes the following key provisions:

Jimcaale will abandon his military cooperation and operational plans with the Federal Government of Somalia.

The forces under his command will receive their salaries and benefits from the Puntland administration.

President Deni will award General Jimcaale the highest military rank within the Puntland security forces.

Protecting Puntland’s security is recognized as a collective responsibility shared by all Puntland residents.

Puntland authorities previously issued order for Takar’s forces to disarm after they clashed with local security forces.

Sources also indicated that another significant provision has been agreed upon but has not yet been publicly disclosed.

Jimcaale Takar, a local militia commander, emerged as a key figure in Puntland following violent clashes during Puntland elections in 2023.

In recent weeks, General Jimcaale had developed closer ties with the Federal Government of Somalia and was ultimately appointed commander of the Somali National Army’s 54th Division, which federal authorities said would be headquartered in Garowe.

That appointment was widely viewed as an attempt by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration to expand the Federal Government’s political and military influence inside Puntland.

Negotiations are expected to continue until both parties reach a comprehensive final agreement.

However, informed sources caution that several contentious issues remain unresolved. If those differences are not addressed, they could derail the negotiations or lead both sides to revert to their previous positions.

Last month, General Jimcaale traveled to Las Anod after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appointed him to lead a force that the Federal Government said it was establishing inside Puntland.

His appointment and subsequent movements triggered a major political and security crisis. Puntland responded by mobilizing armed forces reportedly tasked with preventing his entry into the region.

For several weeks, traditional elders and political leaders from Puntland have worked to ease the tensions. Those efforts, based on customary clan mediation and traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms, eventually brought both sides to the negotiating table in search of a lasting settlement.

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The commission consists of eight men and one woman, all from Southwest State.

Officials in Baidoa told Kaab TV that the electoral process is expected to be completed within 10 days starting from today.

Southwest State based its decision on Article 142 of the Federal Constitution, as well as its own regional constitution.

The move signals that SWS has charted its own path and eased the deadlock surrounding Somalia’s 2026 federal electoral process, which has been marked by uncertainty and disputes.

The Federal Government of Somalia has been pushing to centralize the elections under a commission previously appointed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has 53 days remaining in his term and is seeking re-election.

Federal Member States, particularly Jubaland and Puntland, have rejected this approach, opposing both the president’s unilateral electoral commission and recent constitutional changes, arguing that they lack broad consensus.

Regional administrations say the federal government’s efforts are aimed at extending its mandate and legitimizing constitutional amendments and electoral arrangements without agreement.

Somalia’s federal system comprises five Federal Member States and the Banaadir region. Southwest has now joined the ranks of Puntland and Jubaland in rejecting the constitutional amendments and any election process not based on consensus.

By appointing its own electoral commission, Southwest State has reinforced the likelihood that Somalia’s 2026 elections will follow an indirect model agreed upon by stakeholders—a path now clearly adopted by SWS.

Puntland held its elections in 2023, while Jubaland conducted its vote in 2024, both despite opposition from the federal government.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government, according to a directive issued by Interior Minister Ali Yusuf Hosh, has also rejected SWS move. Reports indicate that Mogadishu may attempt to organize a parallel election in Baraawe, where federal forces, including Haramcad and Gorgor units, were recently deployed after SWS troops withdrew.

If the Federal Government takes the parallel election route, it will not only risk undermining Baydhabo’s authority but could also trigger a backlash against its own legitimacy. Opposition figures in Mogadishu may respond by declaring themselves “president” after May 15, when the current term ends—effectively creating parallel leadership in the capital.

Galmudug, which has not endorsed the March 4, 2026 constitutional changes, and Hirshabelle, reportedly facing political and security pressure from Villa Somalia, have yet to clarify their positions.

With Southwest, Jubaland, and Puntland forming a majority among Federal Member States, their continued adherence to the 2012 Provisional Constitution and preference for indirect elections suggests that Somalia’s 2026 polls are likely to be based on a clan-delegate selection model.

Given that Somalia’s power-sharing system still follows the 4.5 formula, and no alternative has yet been agreed upon, many believe that the indirect, clan-based electoral model remains the only viable framework for maintaining political balance—one that continues to give a central role to traditional elders.

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Although the law and the Rules of Procedure of the Somali Parliament require a two-thirds quorum of members from both houses—comprising the Lower House and the Upper House—to attend joint sessions, the meeting reportedly failed to reach the required number of lawmakers.

According to the latest figures on attendance, as many as 132 members of parliament were absent from yesterday’s session, opposition lawmakers who oppose the constitutional amendments said today.

Those absent included 20 members of the Upper House and 112 members of the Lower House, all of whom are said to oppose the proposed constitutional changes.

Among the absent lawmakers was the Speaker of the Upper House, Abdi Hashi Abdullahi.

Lower House Speaker Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe, who chaired the session, stated that some lawmakers voted online, despite parliamentary rules specifying only three voting methods that require the physical presence of members during voting.

A dozen of lawmakers from Puntland were held at a hotel near Mogadishu’s airport, where they had been stuck for four days after being prevented from boarding a flight to Garowe on Sunday, when their flight was turned back.

There are also allegations that individuals who were not members of parliament attended the session and participated in the vote, according to photos taken inside the parliament.

Two clerics known for strongly supporting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud were seen raising their hands during the show-of-hands vote.

Term extension in the new Constitution

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has recently been pushing for the adoption of a new constitution, which he describes as amendments to Somalia’s Provisional Constitution that has been in place since 2012.

The new constitution would extend the presidential term from four years to five years, effectively granting the current president an additional year in office.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s current term is set to expire on May 15, 2026. Opposition groups have said they will not accept any extension beyond that date, warning that it could trigger a political crisis.

The federal member states of Puntland and Jubaland have condemned the constitutional changes, stating that they only recognize Somalia’s Provisional Constitution.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, however, has described the constitutional change as a historic step.

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Speaking at a gathering in Mogadishu on Saturday night that brought together members of the Banadir community — including politicians, traditional elders, women, and youth — Deni said the revised constitution “will not be a constitution for anybody.”

He questioned whether it was intended to serve only President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe.

Deni, who is positioning himself as a potential contender for Villa Somalia in the 2026 presidential election, accused the federal leadership of undermining consensus on key constitutional and electoral matters.

He also called on the regional administrations of Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and South West State to expedite their elections, noting that their mandates expired some time ago.

“The responsibility lies with the leaders of those regional states that have not yet held elections. Although their terms have ended, they remain in office because there is no vacuum. They should organize elections,” Deni said.

President Deni warned that Somalia risks instability and potential fragmentation if the current political stalemate continues and federal elections are not held on time.

Deni further condemned forced evictions in Mogadishu and alleged land-grabbing schemes, accusing the president and his allies of benefiting from land seizures and auctions over the past four years.

“Why are they displacing people? Are these not our own citizens?” he asked, raising concerns over the management of funds generated from land sales.

The Puntland leader also criticized the state of infrastructure in Mogadishu, saying he had recently observed roads that remain unbuilt despite what he described as significant revenues collected through land auctions linked to eviction campaigns.

The post Deni Rejects Constitutional Changes by Hassan Sheikh, Warns of Political Crisis in Somalia appeared first on Kaab TV.

The meetings, which began last week, have so far resulted in only two sessions. The first meeting took place at the Turkish-owned Decale Hotel, while the second was held at Villa Somalia, where the leaders of the Future of Somalia Council met with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

During that meeting, a BKM-type rifle was reportedly stolen from the security detail of the President of Jubaland, Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe).

On Thursday, the two sides debated two major issues, according to sources close to the opposition.

The two key points discussed—but on which no agreement was reached—were the amended constitution, which the Future of Somalia Council opposes, and the nature of the 2026 elections and how they should be conducted.

President Hassan Sheikh is said to have been reluctant to accept these points.

Sources told Kaab TV that the two sides agreed to establish joint committees to continue the talks. Although there were already committees representing both sides, they agreed to form new ones to move the discussions forward.

On Friday, the opposition alliance released the list of its members who will serve on the agreed technical committee. However, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has yet to appoint the members expected from his side.

Opposition officials now say that 24 hours have passed since they submitted their list, in line with Thursday’s agreement, but no response has come from the president’s office. They also allege that activities aimed at undermining the process are ongoing.

Critics argue that all Hassan Sheikh wanted was to stage a photo session and create the impression that he had brought the parties together. They say he was never genuinely committed to reaching a meaningful agreement on the political stalemate, which risks pushing Mogadishu into another cycle of violence.

The presence of Puntland President Said Deni and Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe in Mogadishu is reportedly placing significant political pressure on Hassan Sheikh.

Some opposition figures believe that allowing the talks to collapse could be a strategy to ease that pressure, as it would likely force both leaders to return to their respective regions.

If that happens, observers warn it could take a very long time to bring all sides back to the negotiating table.

The situation now appears increasingly complicated, with growing pessimism about reaching a resolution to Somalia’s ongoing political transition crisis.

Unless the international community intervenes to mediate between the parties, the prospects for a breakthrough remain very low.

The post Somalia Election Talks Stall as Political Deadlock Deepens appeared first on Kaab TV.

Speaking on the matter, MP Kooshin said corruption and bribery within state institutions have reached unprecedented levels.

He argued that Parliament has no legal basis to continue operating, noting that its mandate expired on January 28, 2026.

The lawmaker, who was among a group of MPs who on Saturday blocked an agenda seeking to amend the provisional constitution, described the ongoing parliamentary proceedings as “extra-legal.”

Kooshin further warned that certain clans are being deliberately marginalized from national political processes, a practice he said risks deepening divisions among Somali communities.

According to the MP, around 40 lawmakers have been denied access to parliamentary sessions, effectively barring them from carrying out their constitutional duties.

He also accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration of systematically dismantling key national institutions, including Parliament.

“This is a tragedy,” Kooshin said, “especially at a time when the country is facing severe drought and worsening economic hardship.”

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Serving members of Somalia’s security forces, some with ties to the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), have been seen openly campaigning for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s ruling Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP), despite electoral laws that prohibit police and military personnel from engaging in political activity or contesting elected office.

Among them is Abdirahman Mohamed Aw Ali, a former deputy NISA commander in Middle Shabelle who currently serves as a police officer and district commissioner of Wadajir in Mogadishu.

Colonel Aw Ali was photographed participating in JSP campaign activities as the party competes for seats on the Mogadishu district council.

Days earlier, Captain Abdullahi Ali Siyad of the Somali Police Force was also seen campaigning for the JSP.

A video circulated on social media on December 15 showed the officer—who is also the deputy district commissioner of Hawlwadaag—carrying a pistol while placing a JSP campaign poster.

The developments have sparked widespread criticism and renewed questions over the neutrality of police and national intelligence officers.

Just last week, Abdikarim Hassan, chairperson of the disputed National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC), publicly stated that security forces are barred from participating in elections.

“The police and the military are not allowed to be involved in the election,” Abdikarim said, despite his own past affiliation with the JSP.

President Mohamud’s administration maintains that the elections represent a historic step toward implementing a one-person, one-vote system for the first time in more than 60 years.

However, opposition groups in Mogadishu, along with the regional states of Puntland and Jubaland, have boycotted the process, accusing the federal government of engineering the vote to entrench the president’s hold on power.

Opposition MP Abdirahman Abdishakur described the process as deeply flawed, saying the presence of armed officers in campaign activities undermines the credibility of the vote.

“This is one-vote one-gun, not a one-person, one-vote election,” he wrote on his official Facebook page.

Opposition leaders are currently holding a three-day conference in Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, to coordinate their response to the electoral process.

Further controversy surrounds the structure of the election itself. Although 20 organizations have reportedly been registered to contest the polls, only 16 of Mogadishu’s 20 officially recognized districts are allowed to participate for the council election, with no clear explanation provided for the exclusion of the remaining districts.

Election officials have also been accused of quietly accepting nominations of pre-screened candidates allegedly drawn from only three clans, fueling accusations of manipulation and exclusion.

The NIEBC has yet to issue an official statement addressing the involvement of security officers or the broader concerns raised by opposition groups and civil society.

Observers warn that without political consensus and transparency, Mogadishu risks heightened tensions and possible violence, as rival clans and political actors grow increasingly distrustful ahead of the vote.

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