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The 78-year-old speaker, known for his hardline nationalist stance, has been absent from the public eye in recent months.

However, on Tuesday, the Somali Senate released a brief statement and photographs showing Abdullahi meeting with Vyacheslav Volodin, Speaker of the State Duma—the lower house of Russia’s Federal Assembly.

According to the Senate’s statement, the two parliamentary leaders discussed strengthening bilateral ties between Somalia and Russia, particularly in legislative cooperation and representation.

Both sides agreed to form a Somalia–Russia friendship committee aimed at promoting long-term parliamentary and governmental cooperation, the statement said.

“They emphasized the importance of exchanging experiences and best practices in legislation and public representation,” the statement read. “The Speaker expressed his gratitude for the warm welcome and noted that enhanced cooperation would further strengthen the relationship between the two countries.”

Russian Footprint Expanding in the region

Abdullahi’s visit comes amid a noticeable uptick in Russian diplomatic activity in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa region.

While the autonomous regions of Puntland and Jubaland have recently severed ties with Mogadishu, and Somaliland continues to operate independently, Moscow has stepped up its efforts to gain influence—particularly in southern Somalia’s troubled part.

Russia had earlier attempted to court Somaliland, eyeing the strategic Berbera port along the Red Sea, but Hargeisa rebuffed those overtures in favor of a potential U.S. partnership.

In contrast, Somalia’s federal government has welcomed Russian delegations.

In April 2025, Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa, visited Mogadishu and met with senior Somali officials, including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs later confirmed that Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi hosted a luncheon in honor of the Russian delegation, although details of the meetings remain undisclosed.

Earlier this year, in February, the Russian state news agency Sputnik launched its first African editorial center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Analysts view this move as part of Moscow’s effort to expand its information and influence operations in Africa, amplifying pro-Russian narratives in the region amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Who is Vyacheslav Volodin?

The man hosting Speaker Abdullahi in Moscow, Vyacheslav Volodin, is more than just a parliamentary leader.

He is a key figure within Russia’s political elite, closely aligned with President Vladimir Putin and often categorized among the “siloviki”—a term used for officials from Russia’s security and intelligence services who now dominate political power.

A former Deputy Prime Minister and former Head of the Government Executive Office, Volodin is a senior member of the ruling United Russia party. He is widely known for his unwavering support for Putin and once famously declared: “If there is Putin, there is Russia. If there is no Putin, there is no Russia.”

Volodin has been sanctioned by the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and other Western governments for his role in backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supporting repressive domestic legislation.

Also present at the Tuesday meeting was Somalia’s Ambassador to Moscow, Mohamed Abukar Subeyr, a former employee at the Somali Prime Minister’s Office.

According to parliamentary sources and insiders at the Somali embassy, Subeyr played a key role in facilitating the meeting.

He is reportedly facing financial and personal challenges, and has been linked to dealings with Russian state security. On one occasion, he was even reported to have met with representatives of the Wagner Group.

The visit by Somalia’s upper house speaker to Moscow marks a potential pivot in Somalia’s foreign alignment, as Russia seeks to fill political vacuums and expand its influence across Africa.

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The criticism came at the close of a three-day opposition conference in Mogadishu, which included consultations with civil society groups, women, elders, and business leaders.

In a strongly worded statement, the Opposition Forum warned that the current trajectory of political decision-making under President Hassan Sheikh risks destabilizing Somalia’s recent security gains.

“This is a dangerous turn that could undo years of hard-won progress,” the statement read.

Allegations of Partisan Politics and Marginalization

The forum accused the president of marginalizing key federal member states—particularly Puntland and Jubaland—while promoting loyal administrations in South West, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle.

These regional leaders, the statement noted, have recently joined the president’s Union for Peace and Development Party (JSP), in what opposition leaders call a coordinated move to consolidate power.

“The illegal term extensions, partisan alignments, and dismantling of the National Consultative Council (NCC) point to President Hassan Sheikh’s authoritarian ambitions and a strategy to engineer a one-man election,” the communiqué asserted.

The group also condemned corruption, land grabbing, and the alleged misuse of public resources.

They raised alarm over secretive deals signed with foreign companies and governments involving Somalia’s natural resources—including oil, minerals, and fisheries—which they claim have enriched a small elite closely tied to the president’s family.

Press Freedom and Civil Liberties

The opposition expressed grave concern over increasing restrictions on press freedom. They cited a recent spike in journalist arrests and equipment seizures, particularly targeting reporters covering the controversial forced voter registration in Mogadishu.

“These actions are unacceptable and only worsen the already precarious safety of Somali journalists,” the statement added.

Calling for a return to constitutional order, the forum denounced the unlawful amendments allegedly made by the president to the Provisional Federal Constitution.

They urged the formation of an independent electoral commission and demanded inclusive, transparent elections.

“We call for an urgent national dialogue involving all stakeholders—federal leaders, state authorities, and opposition figures—to steer the country away from political collapse and the threat of extremism,” the leaders said.

Call for Renewed Dialogue with Somaliland

The group also urged a restart of stalled talks between Somalia and Somaliland, which broke down after Somaliland suspended negotiations.

The move followed what Hargeisa viewed as provocations by Mogadishu, including Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s visit to Las Anod.

The joint statement was endorsed by a host of influential Somali political figures, including: Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Former Parliament Speakers Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden and Mohamed Mursal Abdirahman, Former Prime Ministers Abdi Farah Shirdon, Mohamed Hussein Roble, Hassan Ali Khaire, and Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke, MP Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame and MP Abdikadir Osoble Ali, Former Foreign Minister Ahmed Issa Awad, Former Ministers Abdinur Sheikh Mohamed, Abdullahi Abukar Haji, and Dahir Mohamud Geelle (who recently resigned as a presidential advisor).

The Mogadishu conference took place amid growing political tensions, with the opposition warning that without course correction, Somalia risks sliding back into authoritarianism and instability.

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Maryan Jeylani Maye, a mother of seven residing in a makeshift shelter on the outskirts of the capital, says she was kidnapped, forced into a vehicle, and threatened with the loss of food assistance if she did not register and have her photo taken.

“They told us we should register in order to receive food,” Maryan recounted.

“After they took our photos and names, they said it’s for a vote—and that we must vote for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.”

Similar accounts have emerged from IDP communities in the Weydow area, Dayniile, and Kaxda districts.

Residents say local district commissioners gathered groups of displaced people and transported them by bus for registration.

Saido Mohamud, another IDP woman, said they were promised $25 in mobile money after registering but received nothing.

“They told us we’d get $25 via EVC if we registered, but we went home empty-handed,” she said, adding that the middleman in charge allegedly stole the money.

Maryan described the entire operation as a deceitful tactic that preyed on vulnerable people through false promises of aid.

“It’s a trap. They used food to manipulate us,” she said.

Somalia currently has more than 3.45 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), most of whom were forced from their homes due to conflict, drought, and floods.

According to the Danish Refugee Council, approximately 84% of Somalia’s IDPs live in urban areas, with Mogadishu alone hosting between 400,000 and 518,000 people.

Many reside in overcrowded, informal settlements without secure shelter, food, or access to healthcare.

Malnutrition remains widespread, particularly among children and pregnant women.

Girls and young women in these settlements face increased vulnerability to exploitation.

Aid workers and community members report incidents of forced labor, sexual violence, and prostitution linked to extreme poverty and hunger.

The lack of protection mechanisms only deepens the risks.

Universities in Mogadishu have also raised concerns about similar pressure tactics. Administrators say they have received threats from the same commission, warning that institutions refusing to register students, lecturers, and staff will face punitive action, including closure and the use of security forces.

Opposition MP Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame condemned the reports, calling the commission’s actions “disgraceful” and “illegitimate.”

In a statement posted to social media, he wrote: “We strongly condemn the disgraceful act by the one-sided electoral committee pressuring universities in the capital to forcibly register students, lecturers, and university staff.  The committee has threatened any university that refuses to comply with their decision, warning that they will take action against them using security forces.”

The commission, which was formed in late 2024 by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is led by Abdikarim Ahmed Hassan—a member of the president’s political party and campaign officer.

Former friends also say Abdikarin was a former fighter in the Hawiye militia that played a key role in Mogadishu’s destruction during the 1991 civil war.

When contacted by this reporter, neither Abdikarim nor the commission responded to requests for comment.

The commission’s formation and planned electoral process have been widely rejected by opposition parties and two federal member states namely Puntland and Jubaland.

With elections expected ahead of the 2026 deadline marking the end of President Mohamud’s term, many critics fear the process is a pretext to extend his rule—risking renewed instability in Somalia’s fragile political landscape.

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His rallying cry, “Somalia at peace with itself and abroad,” promised a decisive break from years of transitional dysfunction and regional isolation.

Today, as his administration crosses the halfway point, that promise lies heavily burdened by deep internal fractures, diplomatic blunders, massive corruption that brought the country to its knees and an insurgency that remains both relentless and adaptive.

The very pillars upon which Hassan Sheikh anchored his second presidency—reconciliation, constitutional clarity, international alignment, and security—are now in crisis.

An Electoral Minefield and the Constitution in Limbo

One of the clearest indictments of the current administration is the persistent deadlock over Somalia’s electoral framework. Far from achieving a unified model, the country has become more fragmented. Tensions between the federal government and Federal Member States (FMS), especially Puntland and Jubaland, have intensified, eroding trust and threatening the fragile balance of federalism.

The federal government’s push for a controversial one-person, one-vote system without first seeking consensus has raised alarm bells, not because of the principle itself, but due to its unilateral rollout.

Opposition groups argue that it lacks legal clarity, institutional readiness, and most crucially—political inclusivity.

Meanwhile, the constitutional review process—once expected to anchor long-term stability—has stalled. Draft amendments presented in Mogadishu have sparked suspicion among the federal member states, with many viewing them as attempts to centralize power under the guise of reform. Instead of healing Somalia’s political wounds, the process has opened new ones.

Against all odds, the President has pressured three federal member state leaders—Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest—to join his unilateral political party – Justice and Solidarity Party. This party officials also include the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Speaker, and nearly all government ministers, signaling a shift toward authoritarian rule reminiscent of regimes in Djibouti and Turkey.

The once diverse National Consultative Council (NCC) is now effectively defunct, its remnants absorbed into a single-party structure.

Foreign Policy Flip-Flops and Lost Leverage

Under President Hassan Sheikh’s watch, Somalia’s foreign relations have swerved unpredictably, damaging trust with key allies.

The fallout with Ethiopia over its controversial Red Sea agreement with Somaliland plunged Horn diplomacy into crisis. The agreement—widely seen as a threat to Somalia’s territorial integrity—forced the government to seek urgent regional support.

But Mogadishu’s initial diplomatic missteps and emotive responses left observers questioning its strategic depth.

Elsewhere, relations with the United Arab Emirates have been strained over security cooperation and political influence. Even traditional allies like the United States, who re-established military presence in Somalia, have reportedly grown concerned about inconsistencies in Mogadishu’s foreign policy orientation.

The administration’s habit of issuing sweeping nationalist declarations without policy depth has undercut Somalia’s image as a stable partner on the international stage.

Security Gains Overshadowed by Strategic Gaps

The government declared “total war” on Al-Shabaab in 2022, and early gains—especially in central Somalia with the help of clan militia groups—were celebrated. Local communities were mobilized, and Somali National Army (SNA) offensives backed by clan militias achieved symbolic victories.

However, the momentum proved difficult to sustain. Retaken territories often lacked follow-up governance or services, allowing Al-Shabaab to regroup. In some areas, the insurgents have returned stronger, emboldened by local resentment toward federal neglect.

Today, the militant group controls most parts of Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, and Lower Shabelle as it advances toward Mogadishu.

The slow and uncertain transition from ATMIS to the Somali-led AUSSOM mission raises growing concerns. With donor fatigue setting in and Somali forces overstretched, questions about the long-term sustainability of security remain unanswered, and the African Union mission stands on the brink of collapse.

A Presidency at Odds With Its Own Slogan

President Hassan’s supporters insist progress is underway—pointing to debt relief milestones, returning diaspora investment, and symbolic state-building moves like the Mogadishu Development Corporation.

Yet these isolated wins cannot mask the broader sense of disillusionment. Political legitimacy is waning, and accusations of exclusionary governance are growing louder.

Far from being at peace with itself and the world, Somalia under Hassan Sheikh has become more polarized at home and more unpredictable abroad. The credibility gap between government rhetoric and lived reality is widening, feeding public cynicism and energizing opposition.

With just under two years left in office, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud faces a defining choice: continue down the current path of selective engagement and top-down governance—or recalibrate toward true national consensus.

That would mean reopening electoral talks with all stakeholders, including opposition figures and skeptical federal member states. It requires transparency in foreign affairs, measured rhetoric, and investment in post-liberation governance—not just military bravado.

Hassan Sheikh’s second term was meant to restore diplomacy and inclusive governance. Instead, it has exposed the fragility of Somalia’s progress. This requires the humility to accept that slogans are no substitute for real leadership.

If he really wants to salvage his legacy and fulfill his promise of peace, the time to change course is now. The clock is ticking—and history won’t be kind to those who chose rhetoric over results.

——

The Author is the Director of Arlaadi Media Network, Foreign Policy journalist and communications specialist. You can reach out him in X (Twitter) @JaylaaniJr

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On Wednesday, Puntland released 15 Somaliland prisoners captured during the August 2023 battle in Goojacadde, Las Anod—a region once contested by both Hargeisa and Garowe, but now under the control of SSC-Khaatumo.

The detainees, dressed in suits, were flown from Garowe and received in Hargeisa, marking a significant symbolic moment.

For the first time, Puntland sent senior advisers from the presidential office to Somaliland’s capital—an unprecedented move given Somaliland’s self-declared independence from Somalia.

In return, Somaliland released 11 Puntland detainees held in Hargeisa prison.

Authorities in Hargeisa provided each freed prisoner with a $500 cash grant upon their departure.

Traditional elders, led by King Osman Mohamud Buurmadow of the Isaaq clan, accompanied the Puntland returnees aboard a chartered flight.

Collaboration between Puntland and Somaliland

In a press statement, the Puntland presidency confirmed the prisoner swap was the result of a direct agreement between the two sides, without federal involvement.

Puntland’s Minister of Interior, Abdi Farah Said, said the deal was made independently.

“Tomorrow matters more than yesterday. This is the time for both sides to work together against extremism and for opportunity,” Abdi Farah said during a reception for the delegation in Garowe.

Somaliland also welcomed the renewed contact.

Speaking in Garowe, King Buurmadow described the exchange as a step toward ending hostilities.

“When we cooperate, we can achieve great things,” he said.

The influential elder suggested that collaboration between Puntland and Somaliland could reshape Somali federal politics—a possible indication of aligning forces ahead of the Somali federal elections in 2026.

However, the move has drawn criticism from SSC-Khaatumo and the Federal Government in Mogadishu.

Both claimed credit for facilitating the release—claims Puntland has rejected.

Federal Ministry of Justice and SSC-Khaatumo Justice Department said the process was part of ongoing federal efforts, while Puntland dismissed those statements as inaccurate.

Federal Minister of Energy, Abdullahi Bidhan, who hails from Las Anod, accused Puntland President Said Deni of opposing SSC-Khaatumo’s recognition by Mogadishu.

He linked the timing of the exchange to federal tensions and recent visits to Las Anod by federal leaders.

In response, Puntland’s Minister of the Presidency, Abdifatah Abdinuur, accused Bidhan and Villa Somalia of “attempting to sow discord between Puntland and SSC-Khaatumo through financial and political manipulation”.

While Puntland has not endorsed secession, the Garowe leadership continues to advocate for a confederal model in Somalia, seeking greater regional autonomy.

The prisoner exchange may mark a rare thaw in relations between the two northern states of Puntland and Somaliland, which have long been at odds over territory dispute.

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