According to the NCC communiqué, SSC-Khaatumo will officially join the federal system after a local clan conference is completed within the next two months.

This came after SSC-Khaatumo leader Abdiqadir Aw-Ali Firdhiye participated in his first National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting held from May 5 to 7.

However, the move has triggered a political Pandora’s box, adding fresh complications to Somalia’s already fragile and poorly defined federal structure.

The core problem lies in Somalia’s Provisional Constitution, which leaves the formation of Federal Member States (FMS) open to interpretation. Article 49(6) states: “Based on a voluntary decision, two or more regions may merge to form a Federal Member State.”

This provision makes clear that no single region can become a federal state on its own.

Meanwhile, Article 142(1) recognizes existing Federal Member States that were established before the constitution’s adoption, allowing them to maintain their powers temporarily until all FMS are properly formed and harmonized with the national constitution.

Yet, in practice, the formation of federal states has been inconsistent, often determined by clan-based arrangements rather than geographic or legal criteria.

For example, Galmudug was formed by merging Galgaduud with only part of Mudug—leaving the rest of Mudug within Puntland.

Though controversial, the Federal Government framed Galmudug’s creation as a political solution rather than a strictly legal one.

The Case of SSC-Khaatumo

The recognition of SSC-Khaatumo followed a deadly conflict in Las Anod in August 2023, where Dhulbahante militias fought Somaliland forces.

Las Anod was subsequently declared the capital of SSC-Khaatumo, an entity claiming to represent the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn regions.

In reality, however, Sanaag has not joined the project, and “Cayn” refers only to Buuhoodle, a town that formerly fell under Togdheer region.

This means SSC-Khaatumo effectively governs only parts of Sool—falling short of the constitutional requirement that two or more regions must voluntarily merge to form a federal state.

Domino Effect in the Regions

SSC-Khaatumo’s recognition has sparked similar demands across the country.

On Saturday, Beledweyne—Hiiraan’s capital—was seized by former warlord Abdifatah Hassan Ali and his clan militia.

They claim to be establishing “Hiiraan State,” an initiative previously proposed but never recognized.

The Hirshabelle State, which governs Hiiraan, has not responded. Locals now fear violent clashes if Hirshabelle attempts to retake control.

Elders and exiled politicians from the Somaliland’s Awdal region, which borders Djibouti, have long advocated for federal member state status under Somalia.

Unable to safely campaign within Somaliland, they’ve been meeting in Mogadishu.

Tensions have also flared in Gedo, Jubbland, where community leaders have long rejected the leadership of Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe.

The NCC’s recent remarks about forming a “legal” Jubbaland have emboldened calls from Gedo clans to seek separation.

Residents of Banadir, which includes Mogadishu, continue to push for their own federal status. However, the federal government has been reluctant to allow this, fearing the loss of revenue generated by Mogadishu’s seaport and airport.

Ripple Effects on Existing States

Analysts warn that the SSC-Khaatumo decision may destabilize other federal states.

In Southwest State, some clans in Lower Shabelle have begun advocating for separation.

In Galmudug, residents of Elbur are discussing breaking away from the current state structure.

These growing fissures reflect the absence of a uniform, legally binding process for federalization—leaving room for political opportunism and rising clan-based fragmentation.

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