His swift move towards rapprochement with Ethiopia has raised concerns among some of Somalia’s traditional allies, particularly Eritrea and Egypt.

Last Thursday, Prime Minister Abiy was warmly received in Mogadishu, where he held bilateral talks with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and key members of the Somali cabinet.

This visit followed the mediation efforts of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in December, with support from European partners.

The discussions between Somalia and Ethiopia centered on resolving tensions that flared after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland. That MOU agreement granted Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea, the establishment of a 20-kilometer naval military base, and port access.

In a statement released on Thursday, the Somali President’s Office noted that the meeting between President Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy “focused on strengthening cooperation in security, economic, and social spheres.”

Both leaders emphasized the historical ties and longstanding neighborly relations between their nations, underlining mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

Prime Minister Abiy, following his visit, expressed his appreciation for the reception.

“We held extensive discussions on a range of areas, including peace and security, economy, diplomacy, and the potential to build joint infrastructure,” Prime Minister Abiy wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

“We held extensive discussions on a range of areas, including peace and security, economy, diplomacy, and the potential to build joint infrastructure,”- Prime Minister Abiy

With financial backing from the UAE, Ethiopia plans to build a new naval base, acquire high-speed navy vessels, and diversify its port utilization, which has traditionally relied on Djibouti.

While this MOU remains in place, the Somali Federal Government has now proposed a new deal, allowing the Ethiopian army to rejoin the AUSSOM mission in Somalia and granting the Ethiopian Navy access to Somali waters, especially the Red Sea.

Furthermore, under the Hassan Sheikh-Abiy agreement, Ethiopia will also receive a new port with 100% access and management rights.

Further regional tensions

Though these developments could be viewed as a potential breakthrough in alleviating tensions in the Horn of Africa, it is clear that the situation remains far from stable.

The Somali government’s shift has already ignited further tensions, particularly with Eritrea and Egypt, Ethiopia’s most vocal regional adversaries.

On Saturday, an Egyptian delegation led by Foreign Minister Dr. Badr Abdelatty arrived in Asmara to meet with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.

The meeting, described by Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel, aimed to address key regional issues, including the conflict in Sudan, nation-building in Somalia, and the challenges of peace and security in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions.

Since October 2024, Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia had held tripartite meetings focused on isolating Ethiopia and blocking Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain access to the Red Sea.

This cooperative effort was primarily in response to Ethiopia’s increasing geopolitical ambitions, particularly regarding the Red Sea and Somaliland, as well as its security moves in the region.

According to a senior diplomat in the region, Somalia’s alignment with Ethiopia could be perceived as a betrayal by Egypt and Eritrea, effectively weakening their stance against Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions.

“Egypt and Eritrea could retaliate diplomatically, economically, and militarily if Somalia shifts towards Ethiopia, viewing it as a direct threat to their strategic interests in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa,” said the diplomat, who requested anonymity.

The Ethiopia-Somalia agreement brokered by Turkey came as a shock to Egypt and Eritrea. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been at odds with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, largely due to Turkey’s support for groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt has long sought to suppress.

In December, Egyptian President al-Sisi expressed his concern, stating that he was closely monitoring the agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, hoping it would contribute to security and stability in the Horn of Africa.

This statement came shortly after al-Sisi spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, with France being a key partner in Ethiopia’s infrastructure development, particularly in the aviation, railway systems, and military sectors.

In 2023 alone, France exported over $383 million in goods to Ethiopia, including planes, helicopters, and spacecraft valued at $160 million.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry has made it clear that it strongly opposes Ethiopia’s ambitions to gain access to the Red Sea, seeing such moves as a direct threat to Egypt’s national security and regional stability.

“We will not accept any foreign military presence on the Red Sea coast,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stated on January 11.

“We will not accept any foreign military presence on the Red Sea coast,” – Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty .

Cairo is especially concerned that Ethiopia’s presence on the Red Sea could undermine Egypt’s strategic interests and influence in this crucial maritime corridor.

Aware of these concerns, Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi was forced on numerous occasions to deny “allowing Ethiopia access to the Red Sea.”

In response to Ethiopia’s aspirations, Egypt has strengthened its alliances with neighboring countries, notably Somalia and Eritrea.

Egypt has even offered to deploy peacekeeping troops to Somalia as the African Union’s long-standing mission in the country nears its conclusion.

This move is seen as an attempt to bolster regional alliances and counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa.

However, it remains unclear whether Egyptian forces will be deployed to Somalia, particularly as Ethiopian forces have now been greenlit to operate in regions such as Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, and Bakool.

These areas were initially considered for deployment by Egyptian military forces under the AUSSOM framework, despite financial challenges facing the African Union.

Adding fuel to the fire, Egyptian officials are angry that they have provided weapons to Somalia and trained hundreds of Somali forces, all of which now seem to have been in vain as Mogadishu unexpectedly shifts towards Addis Ababa.

Eritrea, for its part, has expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome of the Tigray conflict, particularly as it did not achieve its goal of dismantling the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Eritrean officials also remain angry over the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, which further inflamed tensions with Addis Ababa.

In response, President Isaias Afwerki has shifted his position, joining the tripartite alliance with Egypt and Somalia in an effort to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence in the region.

However, this alliance has now become tenuous, as Somalia’s growing relationship with Ethiopia risks undermining Eritrea’s regional interests.

Eritrea views any new agreements granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea as an infringement on its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In response to these developments, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel remarked that the periodic consultations between Egypt and Eritrea on the Somalia-Ethiopia situation aim to cultivate common positions on vital matters of regional security and stability.

“Themes addressed in greater depth include: the quest for an expeditious and peaceful solution to the conflict in the Sudan; endeavours underway on nation-building in Somalia; as well as challenges of peace and security in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Regions,” – Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel

Looking ahead, Eritrea and Egypt may retaliate diplomatically, isolating Somalia from key regional alliances.

This could result in economic sanctions or a reduction in military support, particularly in counter-terrorism efforts.

Somalia, thus, may find itself navigating a delicate balance between the benefits of its newfound alliance with Ethiopia and the repercussions of distancing itself from its long-standing allies.

The worst-case scenario would see Egypt and Eritrea escalating tensions militarily, which could spark a new arms race in the Horn of Africa.  Both countries might ramp up their military presence along the Red Sea and in Somalia, further destabilizing the region.

Somalia’s neutrality could be severely compromised as it becomes caught between two powerful blocs, each with competing interests in the region’s future.

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