Most Somalis support a transition to one-person, one-vote elections, but a new public opinion survey shows that concerns over political instability, insecurity and the country’s constitutional crisis continue to shape how citizens view democratic reforms.

The findings suggest that while democratic participation remains popular, many Somalis place peace and security ahead of political reforms when the two priorities appear to conflict.

About 82% of respondents said maintaining peace and stability was more important than ensuring public participation in the upcoming presidential election.

Meanwhile, 52% said holding a peaceful and secure election was more important than ensuring that the political transition takes place strictly on schedule without extensions to political terms.

The results come amid intense political disagreements over constitutional amendments, the electoral system, presidential powers and relations between the Federal Government and Somalia’s federal member states.

Security Remains the Top Public Priority

Security emerged as the strongest issue when respondents were asked what political leaders should focus on most clearly.

Around 65.5% identified security and counterterrorism operations as their top priority. Elections and the political process came a distant second at 18.9%, while public spending and the national budget were cited by 10.6%.

The figures indicate that, for many Somalis, political accountability is closely linked to the government’s ability to provide security and protect communities from armed groups.

This is particularly significant as Somalia continues its transition toward greater responsibility for national security, while Al-Shabaab remains an active threat in several parts of the country.

Support for Direct Elections

Despite security concerns, support for direct elections remains strong.

About 65% of respondents said they would prefer a one-person, one-vote election even if the process had to be delayed to allow adequate preparations. By comparison, 35% preferred maintaining term limits while holding elections under a system that does not provide every citizen with a direct vote.

The results suggest that many citizens support the principle of direct elections but are also prepared to accept delays if they believe additional time is necessary to make the process credible and secure.

This creates a complicated political picture: voters appear to want greater democratic participation, but they do not necessarily consider election timing more important than peace, security and a credible electoral process.

Disagreement Over Presidential Powers

The survey also reflects the deep divisions surrounding the powers and tenure of Somalia’s presidency.

Views differed significantly depending on the political and geographic context. The disagreement was particularly pronounced in Garowe and Kismayo, where Puntland and Jubaland have strongly criticized aspects of the Federal Government’s approach to the political transition.

Respondents who believed the president’s mandate had ended were more likely to prioritize term limits, a timely political transition and press freedom.

Those who believed presidential authority remained valid were more likely to emphasize stability and the government’s ability to exercise effective authority.

These differences demonstrate how Somalia’s political disputes are reflected not only among political leaders but also within public opinion.

Trust in Electoral Institutions Remains Uneven

The survey also found significant differences in public confidence in the institutions responsible for managing elections.

Trust in electoral administrators varies considerably across different parts of Somalia, highlighting the difficulty of creating an electoral system that is regarded as legitimate across the country’s politically diverse landscape.

This is particularly important as Somalia attempts to move toward direct elections after years of indirect electoral arrangements involving clan-based representation and selected delegates.

For a one-person, one-vote system to gain broad acceptance, citizens and political actors would need confidence that electoral institutions are independent, transparent and capable of managing the process fairly.

Civil Society Seen as Important

Civil society organizations were identified as another important source of credibility for the electoral process.

The findings suggest that Somali civil society groups are viewed by many respondents as a relatively trusted third party that could help strengthen confidence in elections by monitoring the process, promoting voter awareness and encouraging transparency.

Their involvement could become particularly important in a political environment where trust between federal institutions and regional administrations remains limited.

Democracy Still Popular, but Not the Only Priority

Overall, the survey shows that democratic reform remains broadly popular among Somalis, but citizens do not necessarily view every democratic principle as equally urgent.

Many respondents support direct voting and greater public participation while simultaneously placing security and stability above electoral deadlines.

The findings therefore highlight the central challenge facing Somalia’s political transition: building a democratic system that citizens believe is both representative and capable of maintaining peace and security.

As political leaders continue to debate constitutional reforms, presidential powers and the timing and format of future elections, public confidence is likely to depend not only on whether Somalia holds direct elections, but also on whether the process is peaceful, credible and accepted by the country’s competing political authorities.