The investigation examined 884 air operations carried out by the United States and its coalition partners across the four countries between 2007 and the end of May 2025.

According to ARIJ, the documented incidents resulted in at least 3,336 civilian deaths and injuries.

The figures represent casualties that researchers were able to document and do not necessarily cover every incident that occurred.

Somalia accounted for at least 216 civilian deaths and injuries in the ARIJ database. The investigation described this as the minimum number of civilian casualties that researchers were able to document in the incidents reviewed.

It did not claim that the figure represents the total civilian toll from U.S. air operations in Somalia.

Across the four countries, Syria recorded the highest number of documented civilian casualties, with 1,336 people killed or injured, followed by Yemen with 991 and Iraq with 793. Somalia accounted for 216 casualties.

Airwars, which has independently tracked civilian-harm allegations involving U.S. military operations in Somalia for years, has produced a separate estimate based on individual incidents it has assessed.

The organization estimates that between 85 and 162 civilians were killed in incidents it considers sufficiently substantiated or highly credible, while between 35 and 55 civilians were reportedly injured in those incidents.

Airwars also estimates that between 23 and 26 children and between 12 and 13 women were among the civilians likely killed in U.S. operations in Somalia, based on specific incidents assessed by the organization.

The different figures require careful interpretation. The 216 people cited by ARIJ represents documented civilians killed or injured across incidents included in its investigation, while Airwars separates incidents according to its own levels of confidence and evidence.

The two figures therefore do not measure exactly the same thing and should not be treated as directly interchangeable.

Major gap between independent estimates and U.S. figures

The figures compiled by independent organizations also differ substantially from the number of civilian casualties officially acknowledged by the U.S. military.

Airwars says U.S. forces have officially acknowledged six civilian deaths and 11 civilian injuries resulting from American operations in Somalia.

The organization’s broader estimates are based on information from media reports, witnesses, local sources, social media, victim information and other available evidence.

The U.S. military, through the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM), maintains its own process for investigating allegations of civilian harm. AFRICOM says it reviews such claims using intelligence, operational information, targeting assessments and other information available to the command.

AFRICOM categorizes allegations according to the evidence available to investigators.

Some incidents may be assessed as substantiated, while others may be classified as unsubstantiated when investigators cannot obtain sufficient evidence to confirm that a U.S. strike caused the reported casualties.

An allegation being classified as unsubstantiated does not necessarily establish that no civilian casualties occurred; it means the available evidence was considered insufficient to verify the claim.

AFRICOM has investigated a number of civilian-harm allegations in Somalia, with some claims assessed as unsubstantiated and others determined to have sufficient evidence to establish that civilians were harmed.

Why the figures differ

The gap between Airwars’ figures and official U.S. military assessments is partly linked to the different methodologies used to collect and evaluate information.

Airwars relies heavily on publicly available information, including local and international media reports, eyewitness accounts, social media posts, information concerning victims and other open-source material.

Researchers compare information from different sources and assess individual incidents according to established criteria.

AFRICOM, by contrast, has access to military and intelligence information that is not generally available to independent researchers. Its investigations can include operational records, surveillance information, intelligence assessments and targeting data.

As a result, the two approaches can produce different conclusions about the same incident or about groups of incidents occurring in the same period.

Children among the casualties

The ARIJ investigation also found that children accounted for nearly 42 percent of the civilian casualties documented across the four countries examined.

That percentage applies to the combined dataset covering Somalia, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

It should not be interpreted as meaning that children represented 42 percent of the 216 civilian casualties documented in Somalia specifically, because the investigation does not establish that breakdown for the Somali figure.

The finding nevertheless highlights the broader challenge of measuring the civilian consequences of air operations, particularly in conflicts where reliable casualty records are difficult to obtain.

U.S. air operations in Somalia

U.S. air operations in Somalia have been documented since 2007 and expanded significantly during subsequent years as Washington increased its military campaign against Al-Shabaab.

The United States says its operations are aimed at Al-Shabaab and are conducted in support of Somalia’s federal government and security forces.

AFRICOM has repeatedly stated that U.S. strikes target members and leaders of the militant group and are carried out in coordination with Somali authorities.

In some cases, AFRICOM has said that strikes were conducted at the request of the Somali federal government.

The United States maintains that its operations are intended to disrupt Al-Shabaab’s ability to conduct attacks and threaten Somali and international interests.

Airwars, however, has documented hundreds of incidents associated with U.S. military operations in Somalia, with particular attention to cases in which there have been allegations of civilian casualties.

Accountability and transparency

The new investigation has renewed debate over how civilian casualties from airstrikes should be independently verified and how governments can ensure adequate protection for people who are not participating in hostilities.

The available data show a clear difference between the number of civilian casualties documented by independent researchers and the smaller number officially acknowledged by the U.S. military.

However, the difference does not by itself establish that either dataset provides a complete account of civilian harm.

ARIJ’s figure of 216 does not mean that all those casualties have been officially confirmed by the U.S. government. Rather, it reflects casualties that researchers were able to document through the incidents examined.

Similarly, Airwars’ estimate of 85 to 162 civilian deaths reflects varying levels of confidence attached to individual cases rather than a definitive count accepted by all parties.

For Somalia, the issue is particularly significant because the United States remains one of the country’s key security partners in the fight against Al-Shabaab.

At the same time, questions surrounding civilian protection, accountability and transparency in air operations remain an important part of the wider debate over the U.S. military role in Somalia.

The findings therefore highlight two parallel realities: Washington continues to view air operations as an important component of its counterterrorism partnership with Somalia, while independent investigations continue to document allegations of civilian harm and call attention to the difficulty of establishing a comprehensive and independently verifiable record of casualties.

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