A closer look reveals a different story: this visit is not a pivot, but a symptom of a leadership style that has left the President isolated and his authority weakened.

Upon his return to office, HSM abandoned the patient work of statecraft for a doctrine of deliberate unpredictability and centralized control. He is now reaping the consequences: eroded credibility, alienated allies, and a profound isolation that threatens not just his administration, but the fragile stability of the nation.

The False Allure of Unpredictability

HSM operates on a theory that keeping everyone, friends and foes and allies alike, perpetually off-balance is the key to power. This approach prizes momentary tactical advantage over coherent strategy.

However, while chaos can secure a short-term win, it systematically corrodes the foundations of sustainable governance. When no one can predict your next move, no one can build reliable alliances with you. By choosing erratic maneuverability over sound strategy, the President has not strengthened his hand; he has introduced a critical liability into the heart of government.

The Kismayo visit is the ultimate proof of this failure. This is not statesmanship; it is tactical improvisation born of necessity. Having alienated a broad political spectrum through broken commitments and impulsive decisions, the President finds his options narrowing. This trip is not a genuine overture for a durable settlement; it is the act of a leader forced to abruptly reverse his own policy to secure a temporary lifeline.

A Currency in Crisis: The Erosion of Trust

A leader’s most vital asset is trust. President HSM has squandered this long-term capital on short-term tactical gains. By demonstrating that his word is secondary to the whim of the moment, he has shattered his own credibility.

The result is a critical negotiation deficit. How can the Jubbaland administration, or any other regional leader, trust a partner whose positions are so transient? Today’s adversary is tomorrow’s negotiating partner not because of a shift in the national interest, but because of a shift in the President’s calculus.

This capriciousness reveals that the conflict with Jubbaland was never truly institutional; it was personal. And now, this reconciliation appears equally personal, a photo opportunity offering a fleeting respite from his growing isolation.

Governing by Whim

Enduring power is built through strong, impersonal institutions. President HSM has rejected this principle, treating power not as a tool for governance but as a personal commodity. Key positions have been awarded not on merit, but as rewards for personal loyalty.

He is neither a principled statesman building capable institutions nor a strategic autocrat forging a durable political machine. His appointments lack any coherent philosophy, serving neither a grand vision nor a clear plan for effective governance. This approach is akin to a millionaire squandering his wealth on sycophants; once the patronage runs dry, the support evaporates, leaving a hollow and transient power base.

Compounding this strategic failure is an alarming personal dimension. The President’s unpredictability often seems less a calculated tactic and more a product of personal mood swings. Somali statecraft has become vulnerable to the impulses of one man.

In this climate of perpetual insecurity, the primary survival skill for his inner circle is to feed the President’s self-image. Trapped by this flattery, he is shielded from harsh realities. The consequence is a political landscape where friends and foes are indistinguishable, and decisions are made not for the nation’s benefit, but to survive the daily whims of the leader.

A Trap of His Own Making

President HSM’s quest for total control through unpredictability and personal whim has proven self-defeating. The conditional loyalty he commands, built on fear and fleeting patronage, is already fracturing. Having built no durable institutions and fostered no genuine alliances, he finds himself increasingly isolated.

His boat, adrift and directionless, has now docked in Kismayo. But we must ask: for how long, and to what end? Without a consistent strategy built on credible commitments, this visit is merely another unpredictable swing of the pendulum. It may generate a day’s headlines, but it will not rebuild the trust he has systematically broken. It is a tactic for political survival, not a blueprint for the stable governance Somalia so desperately needs. The nation remains trapped in the uncertainty of his whims.

——

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame

A member of the Somali Federal Parliament, an opposition leader, the chairman of the Wadajir Party, and a presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections of 2026.

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The cause of the whale’s death remains unclear, but locals believe it drifted to shore during the night.

Fishermen suggested the animal may have been injured, forcing it away from deep waters until it died near the coast.

Crowds of men, women, and children gathered at the scene. Some came simply to witness the rare sight, while others carried machetes and knives in hopes of finding ambergris inside the whale’s carcass.

Ambergris is a solid, waxy, and flammable substance produced in the digestive system of sperm whales and is one of the most expensive natural materials in the world, fetching up to $40,000 per kilogram on international markets.

“I was nearby when I heard the whale had washed ashore. I wanted to see it, but by the time I arrived, it had already died,” said Aadan, one of the young men at the scene.

Another resident, Ahmed Nur, admitted he had rushed to the beach after hearing the commotion but found neither ambergris nor the whale alive.

As curious residents cut into the whale with knives, blood spilled onto the sand, raising concerns about public health and hygiene. Local authorities later deployed security forces to cordon off the area.

Kismaayo District Commissioner Omar Abdullahi Mohamed cautioned against speculation, saying the whale was not killed by people but had already died before reaching shore.

“Some people spread rumors that it was hunted. That is not true. It came ashore already dead,” Commissioner Omar said. The commissioner also warned of potential health hazards from the carcass.

This is the second time a whale has washed ashore in Kismaayo, highlighting growing anxieties about environmental changes along Somalia’s 3,300 km coastline — the longest in mainland Africa.

A Bigger Picture: The Threat of Illegal Fishing

Somalia’s marine ecosystem is under intense pressure. For decades, foreign vessels have engaged in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing in Somali waters.

These industrial trawlers target high-value species such as tuna, sharks, lobsters, and snapper, depriving local fishermen of livelihoods and destabilizing marine biodiversity.

The destructive practice of bottom trawling tears apart coral reefs, seagrass beds, and spawning grounds essential for marine life.

Heavy nets not only capture fish but also trap non-target species, including turtles, dolphins, and juvenile fish.

“The depletion of fish stocks has left small-scale Somali fishermen struggling to survive. Illegal fishing doesn’t just steal resources — it also destroys the natural balance of our seas,” said a Kismaayo fisherman Hussein Bashir.

Sharks, often hunted for their fins, play a vital role in regulating the marine food chain. Overfishing them, scientists warn, could lead to an ecological collapse.

Experts also link whale strandings to broader environmental shifts, including climate change, pollution, and habitat destruction. Rising sea temperatures affect food availability for whales and other large marine species, while the degradation of Somalia’s marine habitats accelerates their vulnerability.

Kismaayo District Commissioner Omar Abdullahi Mohamed said the recurring whale strandings should be taken as a warning.

“Climate change and the destruction of our marine environment are creating dangerous conditions for sea creatures,” he noted.

Somalia’s rich marine resources remain largely unprotected due to weak governance and limited maritime enforcement.

Environmentalists argue that without urgent action — such as stronger patrols against illegal fishing and community-based conservation programs — the country risks losing its marine biodiversity.

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