The OND season is vital for the equatorial region, contributing up to 70% of annual rainfall in parts of Kenya and Somalia.

This year’s forecast points to below-normal rainfall across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya, and central to southern Tanzania. In contrast, wetter-than-usual conditions are predicted in parts of South Sudan, Uganda, northern Somalia, Rwanda, and Burundi.

A delayed onset of rains is expected in southern Somalia, eastern/central Kenya, and parts of Tanzania, while an early to normal onset is likely in much of South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.

Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average across much of the region, with cooler-than-normal conditions only in localized cross-border areas of Uganda, South Sudan, and Kenya.

Speaking at the forum, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Ware stressed the urgency of coordinated action: “The Greater Horn of Africa is at the frontline of the climate crisis. Only through collaboration and early action can forecasts be turned into meaningful messages that drive timely response.”

Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Dr. Deborah M. Barasa, called for shared knowledge and regional cooperation, while Kenya Meteorological Department Acting Director Edward Muriuki emphasized the importance of early warning systems reaching vulnerable communities.

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According to sources within the Somaliland presidency, President Irro is seeking a “first-hand discussion” with PM Abiy on the MoU signed on 1 January 2024 between Ethiopia and Somaliland.

The agreement, signed under former President Muse Bihi Abdi, granted Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline on the Gulf of Aden in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence — a move that triggered strong opposition from Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu.

“President Irro is committed to securing Somaliland’s full international recognition — nothing less than that,” an aide to the president, who requested anonymity, told our reporter. “He wants clarity and direct engagement with the Ethiopian leadership before moving forward.”

The MoU, which remains pending implementation, has been a central focus of Irro’s early diplomatic efforts since taking office.

Last month, during a visit to neighbouring Djibouti, Irro held discussions with Ethiopian diplomats led by Kebede Abera Ido, Ethiopia’s Deputy Ambassador to Djibouti.

Their talks covered regional security, Red Sea maritime access, trade corridors, and investment opportunities.

“The President discussed with the Ambassadors the development of the region’s economy, investment opportunities, trade facilitation, infrastructure, and increased humanitarian aid,” said Hussein Aden Ige, spokesperson for the Somaliland presidency, in a May statement.

Deputy Ambassador Kebede confirmed Ethiopia’s interest in deepening cooperation with Somaliland, particularly in areas of trade and security.

Ethiopia, a landlocked nation, has long sought alternative routes for sea access to enhance its import and export capabilities.

In a sign of intensifying international outreach, President Irro also met with foreign diplomats in Nairobi last week, where he reiterated Somaliland’s longstanding call for international recognition.

“We have not come to Nairobi today with a begging bowl,” Irro told the gathering. “We are not looking for handouts. We are here to build genuine partnerships with governments, investors, and institutions that understand the value of mutual benefit.”

Among many Somalilanders, hopes remain high that Ethiopia’s engagement could be a breakthrough toward international recognition, a goal that has eluded the self-declared republic since its separation from Somalia in 1991.

Irro’s administration appears determined to capitalise on this momentum, even amid diplomatic tensions with Mogadishu.

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The 78-year-old speaker, known for his hardline nationalist stance, has been absent from the public eye in recent months.

However, on Tuesday, the Somali Senate released a brief statement and photographs showing Abdullahi meeting with Vyacheslav Volodin, Speaker of the State Duma—the lower house of Russia’s Federal Assembly.

According to the Senate’s statement, the two parliamentary leaders discussed strengthening bilateral ties between Somalia and Russia, particularly in legislative cooperation and representation.

Both sides agreed to form a Somalia–Russia friendship committee aimed at promoting long-term parliamentary and governmental cooperation, the statement said.

“They emphasized the importance of exchanging experiences and best practices in legislation and public representation,” the statement read. “The Speaker expressed his gratitude for the warm welcome and noted that enhanced cooperation would further strengthen the relationship between the two countries.”

Russian Footprint Expanding in the region

Abdullahi’s visit comes amid a noticeable uptick in Russian diplomatic activity in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa region.

While the autonomous regions of Puntland and Jubaland have recently severed ties with Mogadishu, and Somaliland continues to operate independently, Moscow has stepped up its efforts to gain influence—particularly in southern Somalia’s troubled part.

Russia had earlier attempted to court Somaliland, eyeing the strategic Berbera port along the Red Sea, but Hargeisa rebuffed those overtures in favor of a potential U.S. partnership.

In contrast, Somalia’s federal government has welcomed Russian delegations.

In April 2025, Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Presidential Representative for the Middle East and Africa, visited Mogadishu and met with senior Somali officials, including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The Somali Ministry of Foreign Affairs later confirmed that Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi hosted a luncheon in honor of the Russian delegation, although details of the meetings remain undisclosed.

Earlier this year, in February, the Russian state news agency Sputnik launched its first African editorial center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Analysts view this move as part of Moscow’s effort to expand its information and influence operations in Africa, amplifying pro-Russian narratives in the region amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Who is Vyacheslav Volodin?

The man hosting Speaker Abdullahi in Moscow, Vyacheslav Volodin, is more than just a parliamentary leader.

He is a key figure within Russia’s political elite, closely aligned with President Vladimir Putin and often categorized among the “siloviki”—a term used for officials from Russia’s security and intelligence services who now dominate political power.

A former Deputy Prime Minister and former Head of the Government Executive Office, Volodin is a senior member of the ruling United Russia party. He is widely known for his unwavering support for Putin and once famously declared: “If there is Putin, there is Russia. If there is no Putin, there is no Russia.”

Volodin has been sanctioned by the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and other Western governments for his role in backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supporting repressive domestic legislation.

Also present at the Tuesday meeting was Somalia’s Ambassador to Moscow, Mohamed Abukar Subeyr, a former employee at the Somali Prime Minister’s Office.

According to parliamentary sources and insiders at the Somali embassy, Subeyr played a key role in facilitating the meeting.

He is reportedly facing financial and personal challenges, and has been linked to dealings with Russian state security. On one occasion, he was even reported to have met with representatives of the Wagner Group.

The visit by Somalia’s upper house speaker to Moscow marks a potential pivot in Somalia’s foreign alignment, as Russia seeks to fill political vacuums and expand its influence across Africa.

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Djibouti’s government has described the visit as a reflection of shared goals and longstanding friendship between the two sides.

President Irro was welcomed at Djibouti’s international airport by Prime Minister Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed, who praised the visit as a gesture of goodwill and mutual interest.

“On behalf of President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, this visit symbolizes trust and friendship,” said Prime Minister Kamil. “In a world filled with uncertainty, this meeting reflects both sides’ commitment to building bridges, enhancing dialogue, and promoting peace.”

Irro then met president Guelleh in the presidential palace.

During the three-day visit, President Irro is scheduled to hold talks with President Guelleh, following an official invitation extended by Djibouti.

The agenda is expected to focus on repairing ties that soured after Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Ethiopia in January 2024.

READ MORE: Somaliland protests against Djibouti’s alleged sabotage of Ethiopia MOU

That deal, signed under former President Muse Bihi Abdi, offered Ethiopia port access and potentially a naval presence along Somaliland’s coast—moves Djibouti strongly opposed.

Djiboutian officials saw the MoU as a threat to their economic lifeline.

Nearly 95% of Ethiopia’s imports and exports pass through Djibouti’s ports, especially the Port of Doraleh, making Ethiopia its largest customer and a pillar of the country’s economy.

Somaliland, strategically located next to both Djibouti and Ethiopia, offers a shorter route to the Red Sea via the ports of Berbera and Zeila.

Over the past several years, Somaliland has invested heavily in modernizing its Berbera Port, positioning it as a viable alternative for Ethiopia’s trade needs.

While in Djibouti, President Irro is also expected to discuss cross-border security cooperation, trade integration, and the possible revival of the stalled talks between Somaliland and Somalia, which Hargeisa suspended earlier this year.

Both Djibouti and Somaliland are competing to serve Ethiopia’s growing trade demands. Ethiopia, in turn, has been actively pursuing a port under its full control and is reportedly interested in establishing a military base on the Red Sea.

President Irro has signaled that Somaliland is prepared to finalize a comprehensive trade agreement with Ethiopia later this year.

Following his visit to Djibouti, he is expected to travel to Addis Ababa for an official visit, where discussions will likely focus on security and economic cooperation.

Despite Somaliland’s lack of international recognition, President Irrojust last week emphasized that his administration remains open to forging strong bilateral ties.

“I thank the countries that have maintained security and economic relations with us, including Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Taiwan,” he said.

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President Abdirahman Abdillahi Irro delivered a national address in Hargeisa during celebrations that included a military parade by Somaliland’s armed forces, with widespread participation from various sectors of the public.

In his first address as head of state on May 18, President Irro made a passionate appeal to the international community to recognize Somaliland’s statehood.

“Today marks the 34th anniversary since we regained our freedom. There is no legal reason preventing Somaliland’s recognition — only political decisions, and political decisions are not permanent,” he said.

The President revealed that his government had sent formal recognition letters to the heads of state and monarchs of all 195 UN member states, reminding them of their responsibility to uphold international justice and acknowledge Somaliland’s right to self-determination.

“I thank the countries that have maintained security and economic relations with us, including Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Taiwan,” he added.

Reflecting on history, President Irro stated that the optimism that led Somaliland to unite with southern Somalia in 1960 marked the beginning of the long-standing crisis.

He emphasized that Hargeisa’s experience offers valuable lessons, particularly for other Somali communities.

If cooperation is encouraged, he said, Somaliland could play a constructive role in promoting peace and stability across the Horn of Africa and within Somalia.

“I am confident that the Republic of Somaliland, as an independent nation, can significantly contribute to resolving the longstanding crisis facing our Somali brothers and sisters,” Irro said.

The national celebration gained momentum with colorful displays including camels and horses draped in the national flag, traditional dances, and performances by school children, showcasing national pride.

President Irro reiterated that Somaliland’s ports, airports, territorial waters, and natural resources are matters that can only be negotiated directly with the government and people of Somaliland.

“Only the Somaliland government has the legitimacy to negotiate on our resources,” he stated, firmly rejecting any involvement by external actors.

He also addressed recent unrest in the eastern and western regions of Somaliland, calling for peaceful dialogue and negotiations to resolve internal disputes.

Finally, President Irro praised the Somaliland diaspora, emphasizing their crucial role in economic support and international advocacy. He noted that diaspora communities provide the largest share of financial inflows to the country, and urged them to continue their investments and efforts in promoting Somaliland’s quest for recognition.

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This has drawn increasing interest from global powers, including the United States. As regional dynamics shift and great-power competition intensifies, Somaliland’s bid for recognition is gaining new currency. Aleksi Ylönen has studied politics in the Horn of Africa and Somaliland’s quest for recognition. He unpacks what’s at play.

What legal and historical arguments does Somaliland use?

The Somali National Movement is one of the main clan-based insurgent movements responsible for the collapse of the central government in Somalia. It claims the territory of the former British protectorate of Somaliland. The UK had granted Somaliland sovereign status on 26 June 1960.

The Somali government tried to stomp out calls for secession. It orchestrated the brutal killing of hundreds of thousands of people in northern Somalia between 1987 and 1989.

But the Somali National Movement declared unilateral independence on 18 May 1991 and separated from Somalia.

With the collapse of the Somali regime in 1991, the movement’s main enemy was gone. This led to a violent power struggle between various militias.

This subsided only after the politician Mohamed Egal consolidated power. He was elected president of Somaliland in May 1993.

Egal made deals with merchants and businessmen, giving them tax and commercial incentives to accept his patronage. As a result, he obtained the economic means to consolidate political power and to pursue peace and state-building. It’s something his successors have kept up with since his death in 2002.

What has Somaliland done to push for recognition?

Successive Somaliland governments continue to engage in informal diplomacy. They have aligned with the west, particularly the US, which was the dominant power after the cold war, and the former colonial master, the UK. Both countries host significant Somaliland diaspora communities.

The US and the UK have for decades flirted with the idea of recognising Somaliland, which they consider a strategic partner. However, they have been repeatedly thrown back by their respective Somalia policies. These have favoured empowering the widely supported Mogadishu government to reassert its authority and control over Somali territories.

This Somalia policy has been increasingly questioned in recent years, in part due to Mogadishu’s security challenges. In contrast, the Hargeisa government of Somaliland has largely shown it can provide security and stability. It has held elections and survived as a state for the last three decades, though it has faced political resistance and armed opposition.

As new global powers rise, Somaliland administrations have pursued an increasingly diverse foreign policy, with one goal: international recognition.

Hargeisa hosts consulates and representative offices of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Taiwan, the UK and the European Union, among others.

The government has also engaged in informal foreign relations with the United Arab Emirates. The Middle Eastern monarchy serves as a business hub and a destination of livestock exports. Many Somalilanders migrate there.

Somaliland maintains representative offices in several countries. These include Canada, the US, Norway, Sweden, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Taiwan. Hargeisa has alienated China because it has collaborated with Taiwan since 2020. Taiwan is a self-ruled island claimed by China.

On 1 January 2024, Somaliland’s outgoing president Muse Bihi signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed for increased cooperation. Bihi implied that Ethiopia would be the first country to formally recognise Somaliland. The deal caused a sharp deterioration of relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

Abiy later moderated his position and, with Turkish mediation, reconciled with his Somalia counterpart, President Hassan Mohamud.

What’s behind US interest in Somaliland?

The US, like other great powers, has been interested in Somaliland because of its strategic location. It is on the African shores of the Gulf of Aden, across from the Arabian Peninsula. Its geographical position has gained currency recently as Yemeni Houthi rebels strike maritime traffic in the busy shipping lanes. Somaliland is also well located to curb piracy and smuggling on this global trade route.

The US Africa Command set up its main Horn of Africa base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti in 2002. This followed the 11 September 2001 attacks.

In 2017, China, which had become the main foreign economic power in the Horn of Africa, set up a navy support facility in Djibouti. This encouraged closer collaboration between American and Somaliland authorities. The US played with the idea of establishing a base in Berbera, which hosts Somaliland’s largest port.

With Donald Trump winning the US presidential election in 2024, there were reports of an increased push for US recognition of Somaliland. This would allow the US to deepen its trade and security partnerships in the volatile Horn of Africa region.

Since March 2025, representatives of the Trump administration have engaged in talks with Somaliland officials to establish a US military base near Berbera. This would be in exchange for a formal but partial recognition of Somaliland.

What are the risks of US recognition of Somaliland?

Stronger US engagement with Somaliland risks neglecting Somalia.

Mogadishu depends on external military assistance in its battle against the advancing violent Islamist extremist group, Al-Shabaab. It also faces increasing defiance from two federal regions, Puntland and Jubaland.

US recognition would reward Hargeisa for its persistent effort to maintain stability and promote democracy. However, it could encourage other nations to recognise Somaliland. This would deliver a blow to Somali nationalists who want one state for all Somalis.

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This season contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many parts of the region, making its forecast vital for planning and preparedness.

Key Highlights from the Forecast

Much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania are likely to experience below-average rainfall.

Enhanced dry conditions are anticipated in cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as well as parts of northeastern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and southwestern South Sudan.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecasted for most of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.

South-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania have a high likelihood (over 70%) of receiving over 200 mm of rainfall during the season.

Higher temperatures are expected across the region, with the highest probabilities (over 75%) in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.

An early to normal onset of rains is predicted in most areas, except central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia, where delays are expected.

The forecasted conditions are likely to disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including women, children, older persons, and individuals with disabilities.

Dr. Abdi Fidar, Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, emphasized the importance of regional collaboration, stating:

“As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”

He further highlighted the theme of the forum, “Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together,” stressing the need for timely and actionable climate information.

Mr. Motumma Mekasa, Ethiopia’s State Minister for Water and Energy, praised IGAD’s role in regional integration and combating climate change, saying:

“IGAD’s initiatives towards mitigating and combating the effects of climate change are essential for sustainable development and safeguarding livelihoods in the region.”

In alignment with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations, ICPAC utilized forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) to develop the MAM 2025 seasonal outlook.

The forecast reflects ICPAC’s commitment to providing accurate and actionable climate information for the Greater Horn of Africa.

ICPAC urges governments, humanitarian organizations, and stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate the anticipated impacts of the forecasted climatic conditions, especially for vulnerable communities.

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Bashir Good, Somaliland’s representative to the U.S., confirmed that the administration is open to hosting a U.S. military presence in Berbera, seeing it as a move that would benefit both Somaliland and the United States.

“Somaliland is prepared to provide a military base to the United States if it aligns with the mutual interests of both parties,” said Bashir Good.

Berbera, located on the Gulf of Aden, holds a key position on international maritime routes. Its proximity to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, makes it a highly strategic location for military and commercial interests.

The city has long been central to Somaliland’s economic and security considerations.

In May 2022, a U.S. AFRICOM military plane was seen at Berbera Airport during a visit by AFRICOM officials, highlighting the growing military interest in the region.

Somaliland’s efforts to solidify its international standing include a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Ethiopia, granting the landlocked nation access to the Red Sea via Berbera.

This agreement is seen as a potential pathway for Somaliland to gain international recognition in exchange for facilitating Ethiopia’s maritime access.

In addition, Somaliland has an existing agreement with the UAE’s Dubai Ports World to manage and develop the Berbera Port, a deal that has included provisions for a military base.

The UAE has already established a military presence in the region, further cementing Berbera’s strategic significance.

Bashir Good also reiterated Somaliland’s broader ambitions, emphasizing the region’s commitment to building diplomatic and cooperative relations with the U.S. and other nations as an independent state.

Despite these efforts, Somaliland continues to pursue international recognition as a sovereign state independent from Somalia. However, no country has officially recognized Somaliland’s independence to date.

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The appeal, made through the multi-agency Regional Migrant Response Plan for the Horn of Africa and Yemen framework, will address the dire humanitarian needs as well as protection risks and vulnerabilities that migrants in the region face and scale up the delivery of lifesaving and resilience-building initiatives as well as pursue the implementation of long-term sustainable solutions for migrants and host communities.

The Eastern Route is one of the busiest, most complex, and dangerous migratory routes in the world. In 2022 overall, the number of migrants who entered Djibouti almost doubled compared to the previous year. In the same year, 89 migrant deaths or disappearances were recorded along the route due to hazardous transportation, illness, harsh environmental conditions, drowning at sea, and violence. Many more deaths and disappearances go unreported.

Every year, thousands of migrants leave their countries in the Horn of Africa and move along the Eastern route towards Gulf countries. In their migration, most migrants make the dangerous crossing of the Red Sea through Bossaso in Somalia, and Djibouti’s coastal town of Obock to Yemen and further by land to Gulf countries.

“The Eastern Route is an underserved crisis easily forgotten amidst other global crises, and we must accord the migrants the support and dignity they deserve,” said IOM Director General, António Vitorino. “The Regional Migrant Response Plan was conceptualized to address the vast and complex challenges on this route and to do so in a coherent and coordinated manner.”

Mobility in the Horn of Africa, through Yemen and to the Gulf States, continues to be triggered by interconnected crises, including persistent insecurity and conflict, harsh climatic conditions, and public health emergencies, in addition to socioeconomic drivers and more traditional seasonal factors.

Funding through this appeal will address the most immediate and critical humanitarian and protection needs of migrants in vulnerable situations; support their voluntary return to their home countries in a safe and dignified manner and ensure that they reintegrate back into their communities successfully.

“The plan provides a flexible mechanism for all stakeholders to respond to evolving migration trends, and broader humanitarian and development challenges affecting migrants, host communities and the respective governments,” added the IOM Director General.

Funding through this appeal will further help stakeholders’ efforts towards addressing the drivers of irregular migration; strengthen the capacity of governments in the region on migration management; ensure coordination of efforts, and enhance inter-state and inter-regional collaboration to address the national and regional dimensions of the migration linking the Horn of Africa and Yemen.

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