With the start of the Deyr rainy season expected in October 2023, up to 1.2 million people in Somalia could be affected. Of particular concern are the riverine communities, which face a high risk of flooding, leading to potential losses in property, livestock, and crops. This threat follows a devastating drought that has already weakened food security and the ability to cope with disasters.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that emerges every two to seven years, bringing a range of risks and opportunities to rural communities in Somalia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate pattern associated with sea surface temperatures, also plays a role in shaping weather conditions in the region.

Meteorological models from various global and regional agencies project a high likelihood of increased rainfall over the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa during these weather phenomena, including El Niño and the IOD event.

“We possess the necessary information to take action, and now is the time for the humanitarian community to unite in preventing another climate disaster in Somalia,” emphasized Ezana Kassa, FAO’s Head of Program in Somalia. “We have a narrow three-month window to act and avert further loss of lives and livelihoods,” he added. Earlier this year, the country witnessed a historic flooding event along the Shabelle river, resulting in the displacement of approximately 250,000 individuals.

The risks associated with El Niño and the IOD event are substantial for Somalia’s riverine communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers. Flooding can cause extensive damage to property and critical infrastructure such as schools, healthcare facilities, and roads. It also disrupts agricultural activities by submerging farmland and crops, leading to food shortages.

Coastal fishing communities are also vulnerable, as flooding can trigger storm surges and increased siltation in rivers and oceans, negatively impacting fish catches and jeopardizing the livelihoods of fisherfolk. Furthermore, livestock can suffer from fevers and waterborne diseases, posing risks to both animals and humans.

However, amidst the challenges, El Niño can also bring opportunities to improve food security in rural areas, especially in the aftermath of a severe three-year drought. Increased rainfall in rain-fed agricultural regions can boost food and fodder production.

“When equipped with appropriate information and education, farmers can capitalize on the improved rainfall to enhance productivity,” FAO adds.

Additionally, water catchments and dams can replenish, offering improved water security during subsequent dry seasons.

FAO is calling upon all humanitarian stakeholders, government partners, and local actors to take the warnings of El Niño seriously and collaborate in preventing loss of life and livelihoods in Somalia. This entails providing early warning systems and educational initiatives to communities regarding the flood risks associated with El Niño, pre-positioning emergency response resources such as food, water, and shelter, and working with communities to develop contingency plans for managing the anticipated impacts. There is also a crucial three-month window of opportunity to support farmers by providing them with seeds and other essential equipment to enhance productivity.

FAO says by working collectively to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño, governments and humanitarian partners can mitigate the worst effects, prevent loss of life and livelihoods, and capitalize on opportunities to bolster food security in the country.

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Supported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the European Union (EU) through the ‘Resilient Fisheries and Livestock Value Chain for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth in Somalia’ (RAAISE) project (2020-2024), the works included the renovation of offices and facilities of the federal ministry building, along with the installation of IT equipment, furnishings including desks and chairs, and other important equipment.

The inauguration was attended by His Excellency Mr. Hamza Abdi Barre, The Prime Minister of Somalia, the Hon. Mr. Hassan Hussein Mohamed, Federal Minister of Livestock, Forestry and Range, Hon. Ambassador, Tiina Intelmann of the European Union Delegation to Somalia and representing the FAO Representative to Somalia, Mr. Roland Kassab, Head of Operations for FAO in Somalia as well as delegates of the European Union, FAO, Ministry officials and representatives of the livestock sector.

The livestock industry is of critical importance for Somalia in terms of providing livelihoods and underpinning the economy,” said the EU Ambassador to Somalia Tiina Intelmann. “The EU hopes that this support and partnership will help it to grow sustainably and provide new opportunities for communities.”

The strengthening of the ministries’ capacity for oversight and policy development of the livestock industry will see improvements along the whole value chain and improve its contribution to Somalia’s economic development.

“It is critical for Somalia’s livestock sector to adapt to future challenges, and take advantage of opportunities as well,” said Hon. Minister for Livestock, Forestry and Range, Mr. Hassan Hussein Mohamed. “With support from FAO and the EU through the RAAISE project, this achievement reflects the growing capacity of the Ministry to better support livestock producers and state ministries with technical capacity, regulatory and policy support,” he said.

Strengthening institutional capacity 

The RAAISE project seeks to strengthen the physical, human and institutional capacities of the government at both the Federal Ministry level and Ministries of the Federal Member States. The inauguration of the offices reflects a priority to strengthen the operational institutional capacity through construction or rehabilitation of the ministry offices and provision of important equipment.

There will also be long-term support technical training of government staff to enhance knowledge and skills on needy and specialized technical areas; including information technology and enhancing organizational capacity in public sector governance. “By strengthening the capacity of staff and services at the ministry level, the benefits will be far reaching for the whole livestock sector,” said Mr. Roland Kassab, FAO’s head of operations in Somalia. “Along with the capacity building of the counterpart ministries at Federal Member State level, Somalia’s pastoralists and livestock sector participants will see a real boost in support with these new initiatives,” he said.

Diversifying and strengthening Somalia’s food producing sectors

The RAAISE Project builds on recent progress made in increasing employment and food security for people by sustainably expanding the fisheries and livestock sectors in Somalia. It focuses on enhancing incomes and livelihoods of people, through means including new jobs, inclusive economic opportunities, and infrastructure rehabilitation, which will be achieved under three outcomes contributing to the livestock and fisheries sectors encompassing production, marketing, and institutional capacity building.

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The centre, which is based in Hargeisa, will act as Desert Locust Early Warning and Control base.

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