Eritrea accused IGAD of having lost its legal mandate and the authority required to contribute effectively to regional stability.

The ministry’s statement said:

“Eritrea has found itself compelled to withdraw from the membership of an organization that has lost its legal responsibilities and authority, and that has failed to play an effective role in promoting regional stability.”

This decision comes at a time when diplomatic tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia are intensifying, and as IGAD appears to have lost much of its political influence in the region in recent years.

Eritrea views IGAD as lacking neutrality and as being inclined toward Ethiopia, which has frequently exercised leadership over the organization’s decisions. Additionally, although Djibouti hosts IGAD’s headquarters, Eritrea has no diplomatic relations with Djibouti, which has further complicated its ability to operate within the organization.

So far, IGAD has not issued any official statement regarding Eritrea’s decision.

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The ban, which takes effect at 12:01 a.m. on Monday, also imposes heightened restrictions on visitors from seven additional nations.

According to the Associated Press, the measure is structured to avoid the airport chaos that erupted in 2017 when a similar ban was introduced with almost no warning.

This time, Trump appears to be on stronger legal footing, following a 2018 Supreme Court decision that upheld his authority to implement such restrictions.

Full ban

The new list of banned countries includes Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Visitors from Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela will face enhanced screening and visa restrictions.

Trump defended the move by citing concerns over “deficient” vetting systems, a lack of cooperation from some governments in accepting deported citizens, and high visa overstay rates.

His administration relied heavily on a Department of Homeland Security report tracking visa overstays by tourists, students, and business travelers arriving by air or sea.

“We don’t want them,” Trump said bluntly.

Somalia Specifically Targeted

In his official proclamation, Trump claimed that Somalia lacks a competent or cooperative central authority for issuing passports or civil documentation.

Trump asserted that Somalia’s government does not effectively control its territory, which, according to him, limits its ability to ensure national security.

“Somalia stands apart from other countries in the degree to which its government lacks command and control of its territory,” the proclamation reads.

The administration further argued that Somalia continues to harbor a persistent terrorist threat, stating that terrorist groups use Somali territory as a base for planning and launching attacks.

“The United States Government has identified Somalia as a terrorist safe haven,” the statement continues. “Somalia also remains a destination for individuals attempting to join terrorist groups that threaten the national security of the United States.”

Trump’s order adds that the Somali government has historically refused to accept back its nationals who are ordered removed from the U.S.

As a result, the proclamation concludes:

“The entry into the United States of nationals of Somalia as immigrants and nonimmigrants is hereby fully suspended.”

In response, Somalia’s Ambassador to the United States, Dahir Hassan, told Reuters:

“Somalia values its enduring relationship with the U.S. and is ready to engage in meaningful dialogue to address concerns.”

The ambassador emphasized Somalia’s commitment to improving bilateral ties and addressing shared security challenges, signaling a diplomatic approach despite the newly imposed restrictions.

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His swift move towards rapprochement with Ethiopia has raised concerns among some of Somalia’s traditional allies, particularly Eritrea and Egypt.

Last Thursday, Prime Minister Abiy was warmly received in Mogadishu, where he held bilateral talks with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and key members of the Somali cabinet.

This visit followed the mediation efforts of Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in December, with support from European partners.

The discussions between Somalia and Ethiopia centered on resolving tensions that flared after Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Somaliland. That MOU agreement granted Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea, the establishment of a 20-kilometer naval military base, and port access.

In a statement released on Thursday, the Somali President’s Office noted that the meeting between President Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy “focused on strengthening cooperation in security, economic, and social spheres.”

Both leaders emphasized the historical ties and longstanding neighborly relations between their nations, underlining mutual respect for sovereignty and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

Prime Minister Abiy, following his visit, expressed his appreciation for the reception.

“We held extensive discussions on a range of areas, including peace and security, economy, diplomacy, and the potential to build joint infrastructure,” Prime Minister Abiy wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

“We held extensive discussions on a range of areas, including peace and security, economy, diplomacy, and the potential to build joint infrastructure,”- Prime Minister Abiy

With financial backing from the UAE, Ethiopia plans to build a new naval base, acquire high-speed navy vessels, and diversify its port utilization, which has traditionally relied on Djibouti.

While this MOU remains in place, the Somali Federal Government has now proposed a new deal, allowing the Ethiopian army to rejoin the AUSSOM mission in Somalia and granting the Ethiopian Navy access to Somali waters, especially the Red Sea.

Furthermore, under the Hassan Sheikh-Abiy agreement, Ethiopia will also receive a new port with 100% access and management rights.

Further regional tensions

Though these developments could be viewed as a potential breakthrough in alleviating tensions in the Horn of Africa, it is clear that the situation remains far from stable.

The Somali government’s shift has already ignited further tensions, particularly with Eritrea and Egypt, Ethiopia’s most vocal regional adversaries.

On Saturday, an Egyptian delegation led by Foreign Minister Dr. Badr Abdelatty arrived in Asmara to meet with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.

The meeting, described by Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel, aimed to address key regional issues, including the conflict in Sudan, nation-building in Somalia, and the challenges of peace and security in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions.

Since October 2024, Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia had held tripartite meetings focused on isolating Ethiopia and blocking Addis Ababa’s attempts to gain access to the Red Sea.

This cooperative effort was primarily in response to Ethiopia’s increasing geopolitical ambitions, particularly regarding the Red Sea and Somaliland, as well as its security moves in the region.

According to a senior diplomat in the region, Somalia’s alignment with Ethiopia could be perceived as a betrayal by Egypt and Eritrea, effectively weakening their stance against Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions.

“Egypt and Eritrea could retaliate diplomatically, economically, and militarily if Somalia shifts towards Ethiopia, viewing it as a direct threat to their strategic interests in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa,” said the diplomat, who requested anonymity.

The Ethiopia-Somalia agreement brokered by Turkey came as a shock to Egypt and Eritrea. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been at odds with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, largely due to Turkey’s support for groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt has long sought to suppress.

In December, Egyptian President al-Sisi expressed his concern, stating that he was closely monitoring the agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, hoping it would contribute to security and stability in the Horn of Africa.

This statement came shortly after al-Sisi spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, with France being a key partner in Ethiopia’s infrastructure development, particularly in the aviation, railway systems, and military sectors.

In 2023 alone, France exported over $383 million in goods to Ethiopia, including planes, helicopters, and spacecraft valued at $160 million.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry has made it clear that it strongly opposes Ethiopia’s ambitions to gain access to the Red Sea, seeing such moves as a direct threat to Egypt’s national security and regional stability.

“We will not accept any foreign military presence on the Red Sea coast,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty stated on January 11.

“We will not accept any foreign military presence on the Red Sea coast,” – Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty .

Cairo is especially concerned that Ethiopia’s presence on the Red Sea could undermine Egypt’s strategic interests and influence in this crucial maritime corridor.

Aware of these concerns, Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi was forced on numerous occasions to deny “allowing Ethiopia access to the Red Sea.”

In response to Ethiopia’s aspirations, Egypt has strengthened its alliances with neighboring countries, notably Somalia and Eritrea.

Egypt has even offered to deploy peacekeeping troops to Somalia as the African Union’s long-standing mission in the country nears its conclusion.

This move is seen as an attempt to bolster regional alliances and counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa.

However, it remains unclear whether Egyptian forces will be deployed to Somalia, particularly as Ethiopian forces have now been greenlit to operate in regions such as Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, and Bakool.

These areas were initially considered for deployment by Egyptian military forces under the AUSSOM framework, despite financial challenges facing the African Union.

Adding fuel to the fire, Egyptian officials are angry that they have provided weapons to Somalia and trained hundreds of Somali forces, all of which now seem to have been in vain as Mogadishu unexpectedly shifts towards Addis Ababa.

Eritrea, for its part, has expressed dissatisfaction with the outcome of the Tigray conflict, particularly as it did not achieve its goal of dismantling the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Eritrean officials also remain angry over the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, which further inflamed tensions with Addis Ababa.

In response, President Isaias Afwerki has shifted his position, joining the tripartite alliance with Egypt and Somalia in an effort to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence in the region.

However, this alliance has now become tenuous, as Somalia’s growing relationship with Ethiopia risks undermining Eritrea’s regional interests.

Eritrea views any new agreements granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea as an infringement on its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In response to these developments, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel remarked that the periodic consultations between Egypt and Eritrea on the Somalia-Ethiopia situation aim to cultivate common positions on vital matters of regional security and stability.

“Themes addressed in greater depth include: the quest for an expeditious and peaceful solution to the conflict in the Sudan; endeavours underway on nation-building in Somalia; as well as challenges of peace and security in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Regions,” – Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Meskel

Looking ahead, Eritrea and Egypt may retaliate diplomatically, isolating Somalia from key regional alliances.

This could result in economic sanctions or a reduction in military support, particularly in counter-terrorism efforts.

Somalia, thus, may find itself navigating a delicate balance between the benefits of its newfound alliance with Ethiopia and the repercussions of distancing itself from its long-standing allies.

The worst-case scenario would see Egypt and Eritrea escalating tensions militarily, which could spark a new arms race in the Horn of Africa.  Both countries might ramp up their military presence along the Red Sea and in Somalia, further destabilizing the region.

Somalia’s neutrality could be severely compromised as it becomes caught between two powerful blocs, each with competing interests in the region’s future.

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However, with concerted efforts by the region’s states, this vital corridor can emerge as a global model for collaboration and shared progress, driven and sustained by its own people.

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden represent one of the world’s most strategically significant maritime corridors.

Spanning from the Suez Canal to the Arabian Sea, they are a vital artery of global trade, carrying 10–15% of the world’s commerce, including critical oil exports, and accounting for 30% of global container shipping volumes.

Yet, this critical waterway remains fraught with competing interests, vulnerabilities, external intervention, and untapped potential.

A Regional Imperative for Maritime Cooperation

Ethiopia, a one-time Red Sea country, and now the most populous landlocked country in the region after separation from Eritrea, requires the urgent need for sustainable, cooperative maritime access. Its reliance on Djibouti’s ports is essential but insufficient for its growing needs. Broadening this access through regional collaboration with Eritrea, Kenya, and Somalia could establish a more resilient and diversified framework.

Djibouti’s commitment to accommodating Ethiopia’s maritime needs, Somalia’s offer of sea access, and initiatives such as the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor reflect a promising spirit of regional cooperation.

These efforts must evolve into a broader framework that includes shared infrastructure, streamlined customs systems, and joint economic zones to benefit the entire region. In the long run, such a framework will lay a strong basis for regional economic integration too.

However, the durability of these efforts depends on the principle of regional ownership. External actors should support, not dictate, the region’s path forward. External solutions imposed without the consent and leadership of regional states risk exacerbating tensions and undermining the sustainability of progress.

The Red Sea Arena: Strength Through Unity

Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia are central to the stability, or instability, of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. As stewards of this critical maritime corridor, these nations must lead the effort to create an inclusive and balanced framework for governance and cooperation.

Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan, with their strategic positions hold immense potential to foster multilateral collaboration rather than pursue unilateral advantages.

Somalia’s recovery, though fragile, requires robust support to strengthen its maritime governance and institutional capacities.

Sudan, grappling with internal conflict, must be guided back to stability to ensure its constructive participation in the region’s future.

The Arabian Peninsula countries and Israel have an essential role to play, particularly in fostering a cooperative security environment.

Yet, external interventions by actors such as the UAE, Russia, and Iran have at times amplified tensions and rivalries.

To prevent the Red Sea from becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts, the region must assert its authority, prioritising collective interests over external agendas.

A Framework for Shared Prosperity

The establishment of a shared maritime framework is not merely an aspiration, it is an urgent necessity.

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with its ongoing efforts to mobilise political and diplomatic support for its Red Sea and Gulf of Aden initiative, is uniquely positioned to lead this process. Working in synergy with the African Union, the United Nations, and other international partners, IGAD can help unify diverse interests and institutionalise cooperation.

However, this framework must be rooted in regional ownership. Solutions must emerge from within the region, reflecting its unique challenges and opportunities. International partners should serve as enablers, providing technical expertise, resources, and support without imposing their agendas.

A Vision for Collective Security and Development

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are at a crossroads. The future of this critical maritime corridor must be guided by principles of cooperation, inclusion, and multilateralism. The region’s states must seize this moment to define a shared vision, one that secures maritime access, fosters economic development, and ensures the security of one of the world’s most vital waterways.

The stakes are too high to allow fragmentation or external domination to prevail. Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia, and their neighbours must come together to chart their course forward.

The Red Sea’s future depends on the collective will of its people to build a sustainable and enduring legacy, one owned and safeguarded by the region itself. Only through regional leadership and unity can the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden fulfil their potential as a beacon of cooperation in a challenging world.

—

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former Spokesperson of the IGAD Executive Secretary. Follow on@NuursViews. He can be reached at nuur.ms@gmail.com

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“I categorically refute claims that Ethiopia has been granted access to the Red Sea. These baseless assertions lack any foundation. Somalia remains committed to protecting its sovereignty and ensuring transparency on national issues,” Fiqi stated on X.

I categorically refute claims that Ethiopia has been granted access to the Red Sea. These baseless assertions lack any foundation. Somalia remains committed to protecting its sovereignty and ensuring transparency on national issues.

— Hon. Ahmed FIQI (@AhmedMoFiqi) December 25, 2024

The denial follows a prior statement attributed to Fiqi, suggesting Somalia had agreed to grant Ethiopia Red Sea access as part of the Ankara Declaration, a deal brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on December 11, 2024.

The Ankara Declaration aims to resolve tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly following Ethiopia’s controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland on January 1, 2024.

That MoU granted Ethiopia access to the Red Sea while Somaliland sought recognition as an independent state.

As part of the agreement, technical committees will be established to address maritime disputes, with a resolution deadline set for mid-2025.

However, the deal has sparked controversy, particularly within the Tripartite Alliance of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which opposes Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access.

Eritrea and Egypt view Ethiopia’s demands as a threat to regional stability.

Eritrean Foreign Ministry advisor Abdulkadir Idris criticized the agreement in comments to BBC Somali, arguing that it undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and risks destabilizing the region.

“The agreement is hasty and poorly conceived,” Idris warned, expressing frustration over Somalia’s swift acceptance of the deal.

He also cautioned that it could strain existing alliances and lead to diplomatic fallout.

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The visit comes just days after a Somali delegation traveled to Addis Ababa for discussions with Ethiopian officials, following the Ankara Declaration brokered by Turkey which tends to ease the tension about the Somaliland-Ethiopia MOU.

The deal, aimed at ending a maritime dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, has sparked concerns among regional powers.

The Ankara agreement has drawn suspicions from Eritrea and Egypt, both of which view Ethiopia’s potential access to the Red Sea as a violation of their previous understanding with Somalia.

Eritrean Foreign Ministry advisor Abdulkadir Idris told BBC Somali that the agreement undermines Somalia’s sovereignty and risks destabilizing the region.

Eritrea has warned of potential diplomatic fallout, describing the deal as “hasty and poorly conceived.”

Idris expressed frustration with Somalia’s rapid acceptance of the agreement, which he claimed jeopardizes existing alliances.

Tripartite Alliance of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt

The Ankara Declaration establishes technical committees to address maritime issues, with a deadline for resolution set for mid-2025.

As part of the deal, Ethiopia will contribute troops to the African Union’s new AUSSOM mission, scheduled to begin operations in Somalia next year.

The agreement has heightened tensions within the Tripartite Alliance of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which was formed to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access.

Eritrea and Egypt view Ethiopia’s demand to get access to the Red Sea as a threat to regional stability.

Somalia has also signed a series of defense and military agreements with Egypt, Eritrea, and Turkey, many of which remain undisclosed.

Egypt has provided arms and equipment to Somalia, further straining Somalia’s relationship with Ethiopia.

Egypt also says it will contribute troops to an African Union Somalia peacekeeping mission.

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The Prime Minister revealed that all options, including negotiation, “give and take,” and even the use of force, are on the table to attain this strategic objective.

Addressing a gathering of investors and businessmen on Thursday, Abiy emphasized the pressing need for Ethiopia to possess its own port, citing the exorbitant and unsustainable costs associated with relying on neighboring countries’ ports.

The move towards independent port access aims to reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on external trade gateways.

To materialize this vision, the Ethiopian government has already initiated negotiations with key regional players, namely Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somaliland, in the hope of securing a pathway to a port.

An extraordinary proposal has been tabled to Eritrea, offering a remarkable 30% stake in the renowned Ethiopian Airlines as a bargaining chip for coveted port access.

While peace remains the preferred path, Prime Minister Abiy asserted that employing force would be considered a measure of last resort: “We want to get a port through peaceful means, but if that fails, we will use force,” he stated unequivocally.

This groundbreaking announcement comes at a time when Ethiopia is under escalating pressure from the international community to resolve its longstanding border dispute with Eritrea.

The two nations engaged in a fierce conflict from 1998 to 2000, leaving the border sealed and contentious issues unresolved.

The Prime Minister’s determination to secure a port is being interpreted as a resolute commitment by the Ethiopian government to tackle this complex challenge head-on, even if it entails confronting potential conflicts and risks.

The landlocked Ethiopia is rapidly growing nation with a staggering population exceeding 120 million. The country has witnessed remarkable economic progress. Nonetheless, the lack of a direct port connection has emerged as a formidable barrier to its further economic development.

At present, Ethiopia heavily relies on the ports of Djibouti and Somaliland for the import and export of goods. However, these ports come with a hefty price tag and are often plagued by congestion issues, compromising Ethiopia’s economic efficiency.

As the nation braces itself for a decisive push towards securing its own port, the world watches closely, recognizing the gravity of this endeavor and its implications for Ethiopia’s future economic landscape.

The age-old border dispute with Eritrea continues to pose hurdles, complicating the path to a definitive agreement.

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