The ICRC stated that the El Niño climate phenomenon is projected to heavily impact the upcoming Deyr seasonal rains from October through December 2026, elevating flood risks—particularly along riverine areas bordering the Shabelle and Juba rivers.

The organization cited farmers in Bayahaaw village on the outskirts of Jowhar, who face a agonizing dilemma: whether to plant crops and risk total destruction from flash floods, or leave their fields fallow out of fear of catastrophic financial losses.

According to the ICRC, the severe floods that struck Somalia in 2023 impacted nearly two million people and forcibly displaced over 500,000 individuals from their homes.

The Red Cross further warned that heavy rainfall-induced flooding threatens to breach river embankments, destroy community livelihoods, and submerge entire rural villages.

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification assessment indicates that above-average rainfall and ensuing floods will significantly exacerbate national food insecurity.

The ICRC added that approximately 3.3 million individuals residing across displacement camps face severe new compounding crises.

Aid agencies have initiated contingency measures in preparation for impending floods, leveraging lessons learned from the 2023 disaster.

However, the ICRC stated that humanitarian operational capacity has been constrained due to significant reductions in international relief funding.

Antoine Grand, head of the ICRC delegation in Somalia, noted that readiness and data-gathering capabilities are markedly superior to 2023 levels, yet expressed deep concern over shrinking financial commitments and diminished relief delivery capacity.

The ICRC and the Somali Red Crescent Society are coordinating joint flood readiness operations, including distributing sandbags, stockpiling emergency shelter materials, mosquito nets, and hygiene kits, as well as prepositioning medical and nutritional supplies across clinics in high-risk zones.

Furthermore, Somali Red Crescent volunteers in Kismayo, Luuq/Bardhere, Jowhar, and Beledweyne have received specialized watercraft navigation training to conduct search-and-rescue operations in the event of catastrophic inundation.

El Niño is a recurring global climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean that induces severe weather anomalies worldwide.

In Somalia, it threatens to unleash torrential Deyr seasonal rains and severe flood risks over the coming months.

This emergency warning comes at a critical juncture when millions of Somalis are already struggling against displacement, acute food insecurity, and severe economic hardship, escalating the urgent imperative for rapid preparedness and adequate humanitarian relief.

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This funding is a component of the RESTORE program, which focuses on rehabilitating environmental systems and water infrastructure along the Shabelle River basin, while simultaneously enhancing the resilience of vulnerable communities residing in chronically flood-prone areas.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) announced on September 30, 2026, that the new allocation forms part of broader UK support aimed at preparing vulnerable populations for climate shocks linked to El Niño conditions.

The RESTORE program is being implemented through a collaborative framework involving the FAO, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and World Vision.

The £2.5 million package is specifically earmarked for anticipatory action before floodwaters strike.

Key components of the plan include upgrading early warning systems, supporting evacuation planning, and facilitating temporary relocations for residents living in high-risk zones to designated safe areas.

The initiative also aims to mitigate the immediate impacts of flooding by providing vulnerable households with cash assistance to cover urgent survival needs.

The FAO emphasized that the new support bridges immediate emergency interventions with long-term strategic investments in water resource management, agricultural sustainability, and community resilience along the Shabelle River corridor.

This RESTORE funding is part of a wider £5 million aid package announced by the UK government on September 23, 2026, designed to bolster Somalia’s emergency preparedness ahead of the Deyr rainy season.

While half of the overall allocation (£2.5 million) is dedicated to the RESTORE program, the remaining £2.5 million has been directed to the Caafimaad Plus program.

According to UK authorities, Caafimaad Plus supports essential health, nutrition, water, sanitation, hygiene, and protection services for vulnerable populations, complementing RESTORE’s core focus on flood mitigation, early warning, evacuation, and community support

The UK government stated that up to 600,000 people could benefit from the services included in the aid package, providing targeted support to communities residing in flood-prone areas as well as nearly 100 camps hosting internally displaced persons (IDPs).

This new assistance arrives as Somalia prepares for the Deyr seasonal rains, with meteorological forecasts indicating an elevated risk of flooding across various parts of the country.

In particular, the riverine valleys and low-lying agricultural zones along the Jubba and Shabelle rivers are considered high-risk areas requiring enhanced preparation.

Many communities in these regions rely heavily on farming and livestock rearing, and previous floods have caused widespread displacement, property destruction, and severe agricultural losses.

However, forecasts concerning El Niño and potential flooding do not guarantee that major floods will occur.

Rather, they highlight an increased risk and probability, prompting humanitarian agencies to prioritize proactive, early preparedness measures.

The UK government pointed to the devastating El Niño-linked floods in Somalia in 2023, which affected approximately 2.48 million people and internally displaced nearly 1.2 million individuals.

Lessons learned from those events have driven humanitarian actors to emphasize “early action”—delivering assistance and executing preparedness measures before floodwaters reach populated areas.

According to the UK government, timely interventions can facilitate the relocation of families to safe areas, maintain critical public services, and protect the livelihoods of those dependent on agriculture and livestock.

The RESTORE program is not limited solely to immediate flood response. It forms part of a broader, long-term strategy aimed at improving water resource management and environmental stability along the Shabelle River.

The program is integrated into the Jowhar Offstream Storage Programme (JOSP), a long-term initiative implemented by the Somali government and international partners to better manage and regulate the waters of the Shabelle River.

The objective is to store a portion of the excess water during peak rainy seasons to mitigate flooding, while simultaneously utilizing that same water for agricultural irrigation and community needs during dry spells.

The FAO stated that the RESTORE program operates across districts including Jowhar, Balcad, Afgooye, Marka, and Qoryooley, with the benefits of the water management system projected to reach communities across parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle.

The JOSP plan includes the rehabilitation of the Sabuun Barrage on the Shabelle River, located near Jowhar.

In September 2026, the FAO announced the commencement of the first phase of rehabilitation work at the Sabuun Barrage, focusing on reinforcing vulnerable river points susceptible to breaching, desilting accumulated sediment and debris from the river channel, and upgrading flood defense infrastructure.

The agency noted that once fully implemented, JOSP has the potential to mitigate flood and drought risks affecting up to 1.65 million people across five districts.

The Sabuun Barrage is critical to the irrigation and water management network of Middle and Lower Shabelle.

Its rehabilitation forms part of a broader strategy aimed at maximizing agricultural utilization of river water while curbing flood hazards.

The FAO specified that key tasks at the Sabuun Barrage include dredging and clearing silt accumulations, reinforcing river embankments, and upgrading flood-prevention structures.

The majority of work for this phase is scheduled for completion by March 2027, subject to seasonal weather conditions and site logistics.

The Shabelle River serves as the lifeblood and economic backbone for numerous populations across central and southern Somalia.

Riverine agricultural plots yield diverse crops, while river waters remain essential for livestock and domestic consumption.

When the river overflows, the devastation extends far beyond agricultural acreage. Floodwaters can sever transport routes, destroy homes and public infrastructure, trigger mass displacement, and severely impede the delivery of healthcare services and humanitarian aid.

Conversely, when river levels drop, farmers face severe challenges regarding irrigation and crop yields.

Consequently, both the JOSP and RESTORE initiatives seek to address these dual extremes: mitigating devastating floods during times of high volume and alleviating water shortages during dry seasons.

Humanitarian agencies are urging local communities and administrative authorities to maximize the pre-rains window ahead of heavy precipitation.

Key priorities include establishing viable evacuation routes, identifying safe relocation sites, and pre-positioning rapid response plans to deliver emergency assistance in the event of a breach.

Early warning systems are equally vital, providing populations with critical lead time to take precautionary measures safeguarding lives and assets.

The RESTORE project aims to bridge meteorological forecasts with tangible, life-saving community actions—such as orchestrating timely evacuations, protecting crops and livestock, and providing direct cash transfers to vulnerable families.

As the Deyr 2026 season unfolds, it is being closely monitored by the Federal Government of Somalia, the United Nations, and relief organizations as they implement comprehensive mitigation strategies against potential storm surges and riverine flooding.

While the UK’s £2.5 million contribution concentrates heavily on pre-disaster anticipatory action, long-term frameworks like JOSP tackle the systemic root causes of cyclical flooding and water scarcity.

Ultimately, this multi-layered approach successfully integrates early warning, structured evacuations, emergency relief, water resource management, environmental conservation, and sustainable agricultural irrigation.

Although current meteorological models indicate an elevated risk profile for flooding, it cannot yet be definitively stated that a catastrophic flood event will occur.

What remains certain, however, is that proactive preparedness measures have been swiftly deployed by the government and humanitarian partners to minimize potential human and economic loss should severe weather strike.

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With the start of the Deyr rainy season expected in October 2023, up to 1.2 million people in Somalia could be affected. Of particular concern are the riverine communities, which face a high risk of flooding, leading to potential losses in property, livestock, and crops. This threat follows a devastating drought that has already weakened food security and the ability to cope with disasters.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that emerges every two to seven years, bringing a range of risks and opportunities to rural communities in Somalia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate pattern associated with sea surface temperatures, also plays a role in shaping weather conditions in the region.

Meteorological models from various global and regional agencies project a high likelihood of increased rainfall over the eastern parts of the Horn of Africa during these weather phenomena, including El Niño and the IOD event.

“We possess the necessary information to take action, and now is the time for the humanitarian community to unite in preventing another climate disaster in Somalia,” emphasized Ezana Kassa, FAO’s Head of Program in Somalia. “We have a narrow three-month window to act and avert further loss of lives and livelihoods,” he added. Earlier this year, the country witnessed a historic flooding event along the Shabelle river, resulting in the displacement of approximately 250,000 individuals.

The risks associated with El Niño and the IOD event are substantial for Somalia’s riverine communities along the Shabelle and Juba rivers. Flooding can cause extensive damage to property and critical infrastructure such as schools, healthcare facilities, and roads. It also disrupts agricultural activities by submerging farmland and crops, leading to food shortages.

Coastal fishing communities are also vulnerable, as flooding can trigger storm surges and increased siltation in rivers and oceans, negatively impacting fish catches and jeopardizing the livelihoods of fisherfolk. Furthermore, livestock can suffer from fevers and waterborne diseases, posing risks to both animals and humans.

However, amidst the challenges, El Niño can also bring opportunities to improve food security in rural areas, especially in the aftermath of a severe three-year drought. Increased rainfall in rain-fed agricultural regions can boost food and fodder production.

“When equipped with appropriate information and education, farmers can capitalize on the improved rainfall to enhance productivity,” FAO adds.

Additionally, water catchments and dams can replenish, offering improved water security during subsequent dry seasons.

FAO is calling upon all humanitarian stakeholders, government partners, and local actors to take the warnings of El Niño seriously and collaborate in preventing loss of life and livelihoods in Somalia. This entails providing early warning systems and educational initiatives to communities regarding the flood risks associated with El Niño, pre-positioning emergency response resources such as food, water, and shelter, and working with communities to develop contingency plans for managing the anticipated impacts. There is also a crucial three-month window of opportunity to support farmers by providing them with seeds and other essential equipment to enhance productivity.

FAO says by working collectively to prepare for the potential impacts of El Niño, governments and humanitarian partners can mitigate the worst effects, prevent loss of life and livelihoods, and capitalize on opportunities to bolster food security in the country.

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