This has drawn increasing interest from global powers, including the United States. As regional dynamics shift and great-power competition intensifies, Somaliland’s bid for recognition is gaining new currency. Aleksi Ylönen has studied politics in the Horn of Africa and Somaliland’s quest for recognition. He unpacks what’s at play.

What legal and historical arguments does Somaliland use?

The Somali National Movement is one of the main clan-based insurgent movements responsible for the collapse of the central government in Somalia. It claims the territory of the former British protectorate of Somaliland. The UK had granted Somaliland sovereign status on 26 June 1960.

The Somali government tried to stomp out calls for secession. It orchestrated the brutal killing of hundreds of thousands of people in northern Somalia between 1987 and 1989.

But the Somali National Movement declared unilateral independence on 18 May 1991 and separated from Somalia.

With the collapse of the Somali regime in 1991, the movement’s main enemy was gone. This led to a violent power struggle between various militias.

This subsided only after the politician Mohamed Egal consolidated power. He was elected president of Somaliland in May 1993.

Egal made deals with merchants and businessmen, giving them tax and commercial incentives to accept his patronage. As a result, he obtained the economic means to consolidate political power and to pursue peace and state-building. It’s something his successors have kept up with since his death in 2002.

What has Somaliland done to push for recognition?

Successive Somaliland governments continue to engage in informal diplomacy. They have aligned with the west, particularly the US, which was the dominant power after the cold war, and the former colonial master, the UK. Both countries host significant Somaliland diaspora communities.

The US and the UK have for decades flirted with the idea of recognising Somaliland, which they consider a strategic partner. However, they have been repeatedly thrown back by their respective Somalia policies. These have favoured empowering the widely supported Mogadishu government to reassert its authority and control over Somali territories.

This Somalia policy has been increasingly questioned in recent years, in part due to Mogadishu’s security challenges. In contrast, the Hargeisa government of Somaliland has largely shown it can provide security and stability. It has held elections and survived as a state for the last three decades, though it has faced political resistance and armed opposition.

As new global powers rise, Somaliland administrations have pursued an increasingly diverse foreign policy, with one goal: international recognition.

Hargeisa hosts consulates and representative offices of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Taiwan, the UK and the European Union, among others.

The government has also engaged in informal foreign relations with the United Arab Emirates. The Middle Eastern monarchy serves as a business hub and a destination of livestock exports. Many Somalilanders migrate there.

Somaliland maintains representative offices in several countries. These include Canada, the US, Norway, Sweden, the UK, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Taiwan. Hargeisa has alienated China because it has collaborated with Taiwan since 2020. Taiwan is a self-ruled island claimed by China.

On 1 January 2024, Somaliland’s outgoing president Muse Bihi signed a memorandum of understanding with Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed for increased cooperation. Bihi implied that Ethiopia would be the first country to formally recognise Somaliland. The deal caused a sharp deterioration of relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

Abiy later moderated his position and, with Turkish mediation, reconciled with his Somalia counterpart, President Hassan Mohamud.

What’s behind US interest in Somaliland?

The US, like other great powers, has been interested in Somaliland because of its strategic location. It is on the African shores of the Gulf of Aden, across from the Arabian Peninsula. Its geographical position has gained currency recently as Yemeni Houthi rebels strike maritime traffic in the busy shipping lanes. Somaliland is also well located to curb piracy and smuggling on this global trade route.

The US Africa Command set up its main Horn of Africa base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti in 2002. This followed the 11 September 2001 attacks.

In 2017, China, which had become the main foreign economic power in the Horn of Africa, set up a navy support facility in Djibouti. This encouraged closer collaboration between American and Somaliland authorities. The US played with the idea of establishing a base in Berbera, which hosts Somaliland’s largest port.

With Donald Trump winning the US presidential election in 2024, there were reports of an increased push for US recognition of Somaliland. This would allow the US to deepen its trade and security partnerships in the volatile Horn of Africa region.

Since March 2025, representatives of the Trump administration have engaged in talks with Somaliland officials to establish a US military base near Berbera. This would be in exchange for a formal but partial recognition of Somaliland.

What are the risks of US recognition of Somaliland?

Stronger US engagement with Somaliland risks neglecting Somalia.

Mogadishu depends on external military assistance in its battle against the advancing violent Islamist extremist group, Al-Shabaab. It also faces increasing defiance from two federal regions, Puntland and Jubaland.

US recognition would reward Hargeisa for its persistent effort to maintain stability and promote democracy. However, it could encourage other nations to recognise Somaliland. This would deliver a blow to Somali nationalists who want one state for all Somalis.

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Rubio was expected to arrive in Nairobi on April 28 as part of his first diplomatic tour of Africa since his appointment by President Donald Trump in January, State Department announced.

The visit was also set to include a stop in Ethiopia.

However, officials in Washington confirmed the trip has been called off at the eleventh hour, with no official reason given.

The cancellation comes just days after Kenyan President William Ruto returned from a high-profile five-day state visit to China, where he held talks with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and National People’s Congress Chairman Zhao Leji.

Ruto’s trip, aimed at strengthening trade, investment, and infrastructure ties with Beijing, has sparked unease in Washington.

State House spokesperson Hussein Mohamed described the visit as a continuation of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established in 2017, highlighting Kenya’s role as China’s leading partner in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Africa.

During the visit, Ruto openly criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, notably, condemned a recent U.S. vote at the UN Security Council that aligned with Russia—further straining relations with Washington.

Links to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) 

Concerns in Washington have also been fueled by Kenya’s recent decision to host Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Nairobi, as well as alleged support for rebel factions in eastern DRC.

Diplomats have privately expressed frustration with the Ruto administration’s regional posture.

Adding to the tension is the broader context of the Trump administration’s reported plan to close up to 10 U.S. embassies and 17 consulates worldwide, including several in Africa such as the Central African Republic, Congo, Eritrea, Gambia, Lesotho, and South Sudan.

Consulates in Douala (Cameroon) and Durban (South Africa) are also reportedly under review.

Troy Fitrell, the State Department’s top official for Africa, told reporters last week that U.S. diplomats on the continent have been instructed to prioritize support for American businesses and investment deals.

Sources also indicate that several U.S. companies, which had previously committed to multi-billion-dollar investments in Nairobi, have now pulled out, citing Kenya’s deteriorating corruption levels as a major deterrent.

The fallout has reportedly cost Kenya opportunities worth thousands of billions of shillings that were expected after Ruto’s White House visit last year.

Matters have further deteriorated with the closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a major funding channel for Kenya, signaling a dramatic shift in U.S.-Kenya relations.

The Kenyan government has yet to issue an official statement on the cancellation.

However, criticism has been mounting on social media, with some Kenyans questioning the timing of Ruto’s China trip.

“President Ruto chose the worst time to visit China—during heightened U.S.-China tensions over tariffs. Today, he’s seen as a betrayer by his former ally, America,” wrote Steve Mbogo, a prominent commentator on X (formerly Twitter).

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi told People’s Daily that Secretary Rubio’s cancellation likely stemmed from growing concerns over corruption and Kenya’s engagement with rebel groups in the region.

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The move raised eyebrows not only due to Ali’s lackluster performance, which saw her taking nearly twice the time of the winner to complete the race, but also due to her startling familial ties to Khadijo Aden Dahir, the head of the country’s athletics.

Nasra’s presence in the race, it turns out, is emblematic of a wider pattern of favoritism and self-serving practices that extend to the highest echelons of power in the country.

As video footage of the event circulated, depicting Nasra falling far behind her competitors and eventually finishing the race with a seemingly carefree skip, the scandal deepened: she is not even an athlete and never attended any training as verified by the Minister of Youth and Sports, Abdifatah Barre.

The #Somali Government sent ‘an athlete’ to represent the nation. Problem was that the ‘sprinter’ has never ran before.

We later found out ‘the athlete’ is actually the niece of Somalia’s Head of Athletics Fed. No wonder – the Somali Govt is the most corrupt in the world. pic.twitter.com/1gW7SzTTGP

— Jamal Osman (@JamalMOsman) August 2, 2023

But how was she selected for the competition? 

Nasra is, in fact, the niece of Khadijo Aden Dahir, the head of Somali Athletic Federation who picked Nasra for the competition in China.

This has sparked public outrage and the sports ministry suspended Khadijo and pledged to investigate how such a glaring incident occurred.

However, the scandal surrounding Nasra’s participation is merely the tip of the iceberg.

Observers and citizens alike are drawing chilling parallels between the nepotism entrenched in the country’s sports sector and the blatant corruption that has infiltrated the highest levels of government.

Many view Khadijo’s actions as emblematic of a larger trend where influential figures, including President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his immediate family, exploit their positions for personal gain.

President Mohamud has himself come under intense scrutiny for allegedly using his authority to secure lucrative government positions and contracts for his family members, including his daughter Jihan Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his son’s wife Hawo Hassan.

Both were awarded high-profile government roles and contracts, despite their apparent lack of relevant qualifications or experience.

The president’s brothers, Hussein Sheikh Mohamud and Ali Sheikh Mohamud, also reportedly benefiting from military fuel supply and car plate registration contracts.

And it does not stop there: the president’s two wives have found their places, with Qamar Ali positioned as a shareholder in the AirArabia airline, a conduit between Mogadishu and Dubai, while the other co-wife’s fortunes soar through the acquisition of the military food supply contract, reaping millions from the government’s coffers courtesy of the international budget support offered by the World Bank.

Meanwhile, Sahro Omar, the second co-wife, navigates the skies of intrigue as the proprietor of shares in FlyDubai, an UAE-based airline that has recently inaugurated direct flights between Mogadishu and Dubai.

The widespread nature of corruption has prompted a public outcry for urgent action against the rampant corruption and nepotism. Many have demanded accountability from the Somali government, decrying the prevalence of corrupt officials who mimic the president’s alleged practices.

The sentiments of the public echo through social media and conversations across the nation. Mohamed Abdinasir, a university student, captured the collective frustration, referring how the country ended up having a bad athlete.

“He [president Mohamud] is the master of corruption. If he stops perhaps others will be ashamed. We have the most corrupt president in the most corrupt country and now we ended up having the worst runner.”

With the nation’s integrity on the line, experts and concerned citizens are advocating for a renewed commitment to transparency and accountability.

Abdirashid Khalif, a researcher and former director of the Heritage Institute, urged the president to reconsider the implications of his actions.

“Since people are justifying your daughter whom you gave a job in your office – every day there is a leader who is giving his family a job – and they say the President has legalized it,” he said.

He was referring to last month’s announcement by the Minister of Commerce Jibril Abdirashid Haji who boldly declared his intention to hire additional family members if the chance arose following a parliamentary inquiries into the employment of around 10 of his relatives within his ministry, drawing substantial salaries.

“I recommend you: Apologize to Somalis for your words about your family members and their employment; let your daughter go; it is not good to keep her in the mouth of the people; it is not good for you,” Khalif wrote.

As Somalia grapples with the repercussions of this alarming scandal, the nation stands at a crossroads, faced with a pressing need for a comprehensive overhaul of its governance systems and a renewed commitment to serving the interests of its citizens rather than exploiting them for personal gain.

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