Somalia is facing one of its most challenging security periods in recent years, with new data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) showing that more than 10,000 people have been killed in Al-Shabaab-related violence over the past 18 months.

ACLED, an international organization that tracks and analyzes conflict and political violence worldwide, said Al-Shabaab remains the dominant armed group driving conflict in Somalia.

The group continues to carry out attacks across large parts of central and southern Somalia, targeting security forces, government institutions and civilians.

According to the data, the death toll reflects not only direct battles between Al-Shabaab and government forces, but also suicide bombings, targeted assassinations, attacks on civilians and clashes in rural areas where the group maintains a strong presence.

Civilians Continue to Bear the Brunt

The findings highlight the devastating impact of the conflict on ordinary Somalis. ACLED noted that attacks against civilians remain a significant component of the violence affecting the country.

In one example cited by the organization, Al-Shabaab launched a campaign of attacks against civilians across southern and central Somalia in March 2026, killing at least 47 people in incidents recorded by the conflict-monitoring group.

Human Rights Watch also reported in its 2026 Somalia assessment that Al-Shabaab continued to carry out indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians, leaving local communities to bear the heaviest burden of the conflict.

Violence Concentrated in Southern and Central Somalia

Somalia has remained one of the Horn of Africa’s most conflict-affected countries for years, with violence concentrated in several regions.

Data compiled by the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) using ACLED figures showed that Somalia recorded 7,269 security incidents between April 2023 and July 2025.

The regions with the highest number of incidents included Lower Shabelle, Banadir (Mogadishu) and Bay, highlighting the widespread nature of the conflict.

The figures underscore that insecurity is not confined to a single area but continues to affect multiple regions across the country.

Al-Shabaab Retains Operational Capabilities

Despite ongoing military operations by Somali security forces, local militias and international partners, Al-Shabaab continues to demonstrate an ability to launch attacks across the country.

ACLED reported that the group maintains influence and operational networks in rural areas of central and southern Somalia while continuing attacks against both military and civilian targets.

Beyond armed operations, Al-Shabaab is also reported to maintain local taxation systems, extortion networks and administrative structures in areas where it exerts influence.

These factors have complicated efforts to weaken the group’s presence and suggest that a purely military approach may not be sufficient to defeat it.

Growing Pressure on Security Institutions

The latest figures place additional pressure on the Federal Government of Somalia and security agencies already facing significant challenges in improving stability and reducing the group’s influence.

Security experts have long argued that defeating Al-Shabaab requires a combination of military pressure, intelligence operations, effective governance, economic development and stronger public services in vulnerable communities.

Attacks in major cities such as Mogadishu also have consequences beyond immediate casualties, often disrupting business activity, public services and daily life while creating widespread fear among residents.

Warning Sign for Somalia’s Future

The ACLED data serves as a stark reminder of the scale of Somalia’s security challenges. While the country continues efforts to rebuild state institutions and expand security operations, the figures show that Al-Shabaab remains a major threat.

More than 10,000 deaths in just 18 months illustrate the human cost of the conflict and the urgent need for sustained security, political and economic solutions.

For many Somalis, the statistics are a reflection of a continuing reality in which civilians remain the primary victims of a conflict that has persisted for more than a decade.