Somalia is facing one of the most fragile periods in its recent history as deepening political divisions, an escalating insurgency, and uncertainty surrounding international security support converge to threaten the country’s stability.
Recent assessments by European security analysts suggest that Al-Shabaab’s resilience is driven less by its battlefield strength than by Somalia’s inability to maintain a unified political and security strategy across the Federal Government and Federal Member States.
According to recent assessments, the militant group has consistently exploited institutional fragmentation rather than relying solely on military superiority.
As relations between Mogadishu and several regional administrations continue to deteriorate, security coordination has weakened, creating opportunities for Al-Shabaab to expand its influence across central and southern Somalia.
Political Fragmentation Weakens Counterterrorism Operations
Security analysts argue that Al-Shabaab benefits from three interconnected weaknesses within Somalia’s state institutions.
First, political disputes between the Federal Government and Federal Member States—including Puntland and Jubaland—have disrupted intelligence sharing and joint military operations.
The lack of coordination has complicated efforts to launch synchronized offensives and hold liberated areas after military operations conclude.
Second, weak governance has allowed Al-Shabaab to preserve what analysts describe as a sophisticated shadow administration.
Beyond its military activities, the group continues collecting taxes, administering informal courts, extorting businesses, regulating transport routes, and gathering intelligence in areas where government institutions remain absent or ineffective.
Third, Somalia’s international security architecture faces growing financial uncertainty.
The African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which replaced ATMIS, continues to experience severe funding shortfalls that threaten troop salaries, logistics, medical support, fuel supplies, and operational mobility.
Al-Shabaab Expands Across Strategic Regions
Security reports indicate that Al-Shabaab has strengthened its presence in Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bay, and Bakool—regions considered strategically vital because they connect central and southern Somalia and serve as logistical corridors toward Mogadishu.
Rather than holding territory through prolonged conventional warfare, the group has increasingly relied on a flexible strategy.
It avoids large-scale confrontations when government military pressure intensifies but re-establishes influence once security operations lose momentum or political disputes divert government attention.
This ability to re-enter contested districts has become one of Al-Shabaab’s greatest strategic advantages.
While southern Somalia continues to face mounting insecurity, Puntland has followed a different trajectory.
Puntland’s recent military operations against ISIS in the Bari region have demonstrated that coordinated local command structures, sustained intelligence gathering, and consistent military pressure can significantly weaken extremist networks.
However, analysts note that these gains remain largely regional rather than national.
The contrast illustrates Somalia’s broader structural problem: successful counterterrorism efforts are increasingly localized instead of forming part of a coordinated national security strategy.
While Puntland focuses on degrading ISIS in the northeast, Al-Shabaab continues expanding its influence across central and southern Somalia amid persistent political divisions.
Election Disputes Continue to Fuel Political Crisis
Somalia’s security challenges have been compounded by an increasingly contentious political environment.
Disagreements over constitutional amendments, the country’s electoral model, and the distribution of powers between the Federal Government and Federal Member States have widened political divisions.
Puntland rejected the constitutional amendments adopted in Mogadishu in 2024, arguing that they centralized power without sufficient national consensus. Jubaland has also remained locked in disputes with the Federal Government over elections and political authority.
Tensions between federal forces and Jubaland’s regional security forces around Ras Kamboni have highlighted how political disagreements can directly undermine security cooperation against Al-Shabaab.
Analysts warn that these institutional disputes consume political attention and military resources that would otherwise be directed toward combating extremist groups.
AUSSOM Funding Crisis Raises New Security Concerns
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding AUSSOM’s financing has emerged as one of the most significant threats to Somalia’s security transition.
The mission continues to face major budget shortfalls after international partners struggled to establish a sustainable funding mechanism.
Concerns have also grown following reports that the United States halted support for certain UN-administered logistical arrangements for AUSSOM, reflecting broader concerns among donors over Somalia’s political instability and limited progress in stabilizing areas recovered from Al-Shabaab.
Funding shortages risk affecting essential operational capabilities, including transport, fuel, food supplies, medical evacuation services, communications, and troop sustainment for thousands of African Union personnel deployed across Somalia.
Security experts warn that any reduction in AUSSOM’s operational capacity before Somali security forces are fully prepared could create security vacuums that Al-Shabaab would likely exploit.
Turkey has expanded its military partnership with Somalia through training programs, defense cooperation, and the deployment of advanced military capabilities, strengthening the Somali National Army’s operational capacity.
However, analysts argue that additional military support alone cannot compensate for the country’s political fragmentation. Without effective coordination between the Federal Government and regional administrations, gains achieved through military operations risk being temporary.
Institutional Disputes Remain the Greatest Vulnerability
Analysts increasingly argue that Somalia’s most dangerous conflicts today are institutional rather than ideological.
Disputes over elections, constitutional authority, security command structures, revenue sharing, territorial administration, and post-conflict governance continue to weaken state institutions.
Every political confrontation reduces the government’s ability to present a unified front against extremist organizations.
Meanwhile, multiple international studies have suggested that Al-Shabaab continues to exploit corruption, clan rivalries, economic patronage networks, and weaknesses within government institutions.
Rather than relying solely on ideological supporters, the group often benefits from opportunistic relationships involving individuals who facilitate its financial, logistical, or intelligence activities.
Community elders also remain central actors in many contested areas, frequently mediating local ceasefires, negotiating prisoner exchanges, resolving taxation disputes, and facilitating access between communities and armed actors.
While these local arrangements can reduce immediate violence, analysts note that they also illustrate the limited reach of formal state institutions in many parts of Somalia.
A Conflict Shaped by Politics as Much as Security
Security experts increasingly conclude that Somalia’s greatest challenge is not the absence of international military assistance but the absence of sustained political consensus.
As long as divisions persist between Mogadishu and regional administrations, Al-Shabaab is likely to continue exploiting governance gaps, institutional weaknesses, and fragmented security structures.
While localized successes—such as Puntland’s campaign against ISIS—demonstrate that extremist groups can be weakened through coordinated action, analysts argue that lasting progress against Al-Shabaab will require a comprehensive political settlement alongside military operations.
Without stronger federal-regional cooperation, stable institutions, and sustainable international support for AUSSOM, Somalia risks remaining trapped in a cycle where political instability continues to undermine security gains.