MOGADISHU (KAAB TV) – Somalia is entering a period of mounting uncertainty as political divisions, renewed militant activity, and a sharp decline in international aid converge to threaten fragile state-building progress, according to a new report released by the International Crisis Group (ICG).
The report, published this week, highlights a deteriorating political and security environment in Somalia ahead of national elections scheduled for May 2026.
The ICG warns that escalating internal disputes, particularly surrounding proposed electoral reforms, are undermining the Federal Government’s ability to combat the persistent threat posed by the Al-Shabaab insurgency.
Electoral Reform Sparks Political Rift
At the heart of the current political turmoil is the Federal Government of Somalia’s plan to transition from the long-standing indirect electoral system—which has traditionally involved clan elders selecting parliamentary representatives—to a one-person, one-vote model intended to expand democratic participation.
While the proposal is a long-term goal of many reformers, it has been strongly opposed by key political actors, including leaders from the federal member states of Puntland and Jubaland, as well as major opposition groups.
Critics accuse the central government in Mogadishu of attempting to centralize power and marginalize regional voices, arguing that the proposed electoral timeline is unrealistic given Somalia’s fragile security and institutional capacity.
“The Federal Government’s efforts to implement direct elections without broad consensus have triggered a political standoff that is paralyzing progress and distracting from national security priorities,” the ICG report states.
Al-Shabaab Gains Ground Amid Political Paralysis
The political impasse has had immediate consequences on the ground. The report notes that the government’s stalled counterterrorism efforts have enabled Al-Shabaab to regroup and reclaim key territories that had previously been liberated during military operations in 2022 and 2023.
“Terrorist attacks have intensified, particularly in the Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions,” the report explains. “Al-Shabaab has retaken significant towns and strategic areas, capitalizing on the disunity and disorganization among Somali security forces and their allies.”
Al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-linked extremist group, has waged an insurgency against the Somali government for over a decade.
Although Somali forces, backed by international partners, had made substantial gains in recent years, the group remains resilient and continues to pose a serious threat to national and regional security.
Sharp Decline in International Support
Further complicating the situation is a dramatic reduction in foreign aid, particularly from Somalia’s most important international partners.
The ICG report reveals that the United States, which provided $770 million in aid in 2024, plans to contribute only $150 million in 2025—a nearly 80% cut.
Meanwhile, the European Union, historically Somalia’s largest donor, has reduced its financial support to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)—the peacekeeping force assisting Somali troops in their fight against Al-Shabaab.
ATMIS, previously known as AMISOM, is scheduled to wind down operations by the end of 2024, placing even greater pressure on Somalia’s own military forces to maintain security.
The funding reductions are attributed to shifting global priorities, donor fatigue, and concerns over corruption and governance in Somalia. However, analysts warn that these cuts come at a dangerous time and could reverse hard-won security and governance gains.
Urgent Recommendations from the ICG
In its report, the International Crisis Group urges the international community—particularly the European Union and the United States—to reassess their disengagement and reengage diplomatically and financially to prevent a relapse into widespread instability.
Key recommendations include:
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Facilitating political dialogue between the Federal Government and federal member states to resolve electoral disputes through compromise and consensus.
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Reinforcing support for Somali-led security operations, including transitional funding and logistical aid to sustain gains made against Al-Shabaab.
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Extending technical and financial support to civil society and electoral institutions to prepare for credible, inclusive, and peaceful elections in 2026.
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Maintaining humanitarian and development assistance to prevent worsening food insecurity and displacement in conflict-affected areas.
Conclusion: A Fragile Future
Somalia stands at a critical crossroads. While the aspiration for democratic elections and national unity is commendable, achieving these goals will require careful negotiation, inclusive governance, and sustained international backing.
Without renewed cooperation and strategic support, the fragile gains made over the past decade risk being undone by conflict, extremism, and political fragmentation.