Hassan Mohamud Mursal (Hassan Maalim), former National Security Advisor of Somalia, stated that Al-Shabaab cannot capture major cities across the country through military might alone, but that such a scenario could become possible if they secure support or alliances with Somali politicians.
Hassan Maalim’s remarks highlight growing concerns regarding the impact that political disputes in Somalia could exert on national security and the ongoing war against Al-Shabaab.
Al-Shabaab has long waged war against the Federal Government of Somalia, retaining the capability to execute attacks in major urban centers and exercising influence across numerous rural localities. The group likewise exploits societal grievances and administrative weaknesses.
The core point raised by Hassan Maalim is that Al-Shabaab’s threat is not restricted to its military capacity alone, but is equally contingent upon the nation’s political climate. If disputes between the Federal Government, Federal Member States, and political opposition factions intensify, inter-agency security cooperation risks being severely impaired.
Somalia’s political disputes—particularly those concerning constitutional architecture, elections, and power-sharing—have recently strained relations between the Federal Government and regional administrations. This dynamic has generated profound anxiety regarding the unification of national security efforts.
Al-Shabaab additionally possesses financial resources, intelligence networks, and clandestine structures enabling it to project influence into areas outside its direct territorial control. Consequently, the capture of major urban centers is not solely a function of direct conventional combat; political, security, and societal conditions play an instrumental role.
Nevertheless, political opposition and criticism of the government cannot be equated with supporting Al-Shabaab, and no substantive evidence indicates that Somali politicians have formally allied with the militant group.
Hassan Maalim’s statements come at a juncture when Somalia is confronting acute security challenges and political friction, underscoring the indispensable need for genuine cooperation between the Federal Government, regional states, and political stakeholders.
Ultimately, the central takeaway underscored by this analysis is that combating Al-Shabaab transcends purely military operations; it requires absolute political unity, cohesive security institutions, and a capable government empowered to govern the nation’s territories effectively.