ADDIS ABABA (Kaab TV) – The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has unveiled the March to May (MAM) 2025 seasonal climate forecast, a critical period for the equatorial region of the Greater Horn of Africa.
This season contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many parts of the region, making its forecast vital for planning and preparedness.
Key Highlights from the Forecast
Much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania are likely to experience below-average rainfall.
Enhanced dry conditions are anticipated in cross-border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as well as parts of northeastern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and southwestern South Sudan.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecasted for most of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
South-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania have a high likelihood (over 70%) of receiving over 200 mm of rainfall during the season.
Higher temperatures are expected across the region, with the highest probabilities (over 75%) in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
An early to normal onset of rains is predicted in most areas, except central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia, where delays are expected.
The forecasted conditions are likely to disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including women, children, older persons, and individuals with disabilities.
Dr. Abdi Fidar, Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, emphasized the importance of regional collaboration, stating:
“As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”
He further highlighted the theme of the forum, “Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together,” stressing the need for timely and actionable climate information.
Mr. Motumma Mekasa, Ethiopia’s State Minister for Water and Energy, praised IGAD’s role in regional integration and combating climate change, saying:
“IGAD’s initiatives towards mitigating and combating the effects of climate change are essential for sustainable development and safeguarding livelihoods in the region.”
In alignment with World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommendations, ICPAC utilized forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs) to develop the MAM 2025 seasonal outlook.
The forecast reflects ICPAC’s commitment to providing accurate and actionable climate information for the Greater Horn of Africa.
ICPAC urges governments, humanitarian organizations, and stakeholders to take proactive measures to mitigate the anticipated impacts of the forecasted climatic conditions, especially for vulnerable communities.