MOGADISHU (KAAB TV) – The intricate interplay between Al-Shabab, a non-state armed group, and civilians dwelling in regions beyond the grasp of conventional governance is a testament to the group’s resilience and tenacity.
A comprehensive report by the ODI and Hiraal Institute delves into this symbiotic relationship, dissecting its nuances across three prolonged Al-Shabab-controlled zones: Adan Yabal, Moqokori, and Jilib.
Rooted in extensive research conducted within Somalia, including a study involving 70 interviews with a diverse spectrum of individuals, ranging from business figures and government representatives to elders, aid workers, and even Al-Shabab sympathizers, the report unearths the multifaceted dynamic that defines Al-Shabab’s connection with civilians.
Central to its survival, Al-Shabab has meticulously crafted a discernible political strategy, capitalizing on the dissatisfaction simmering within civilians due to political exclusion and governmental disregard. This tactic finds resonance among disenchanted populations, enabling Al-Shabab to garner support.
Concurrently, the group adeptly navigates clan politics, exploiting existing schisms and grievances, while also extending services such as dispensing justice. Surprisingly, it provides room for civilian input in shaping these services. This dynamic becomes a conduit through which clans and communities negotiate their influence.
Presently, Al-Shabab confronts the forces of the Somali government and clan militias in select regions. Although the offensive initiated mid-last year seems to have stalled, yielding moderate results, the tug-of-war continues.
Civilian leverage over Al-Shabab is contingent upon an array of factors encompassing clan unity, historical ties between communities and Al-Shabab, and the strategic importance the group ascribes to specific communities. Military dynamics also play a pivotal role, prompting Al-Shabab to adopt a more conciliatory stance under military pressure, only to revert to a more stringent approach when it regains dominance.
The authors of the report unveil the pivotal role of integrating civilians, especially clan elders, into Al-Shabab’s governance framework. Though often severe, the group’s practices are perceived as equitable by some, owing to Al-Shabab’s religious rationale and its inclusion of influential figures within its governance structure. This integration creates a semblance of ownership and engenders a degree of legitimacy, facilitating dialogue and negotiation.
“The group’s approach to clan structures and incorporating some traditional leaders into its governance system has allowed it to create a sense of ownership and buy-in among local populations. Some aspects of Al-Shabab’s rule are more negotiable than others. Still, the involvement of clan elders in governance enables dialogue (if not always negotiation) and confers legitimacy,” the report noted.
Clan conflicts looms large
Yet, Al-Shabab’s manipulation of clan dynamics can also trigger uprisings against it. While it brings momentary stability and order, the potential for future clan conflicts looms large. Within the ongoing government offensive, civilians are ensnared between seeking refuge within Al-Shabab-controlled areas or escaping to government-held territories, both scenarios subject to scrutiny by Al-Shabab.
Despite significant territorial losses, Al-Shabab is playing the long game, exploiting governmental shortcomings to negotiate truces with disgruntled clans. This strategy, though not novel, underscores the imperative of comprehending Al-Shabab’s approach to civilians and the underlying factors influencing their interaction.
This researchers diverge from prevailing assertions of Al-Shabab’s decline. Instead, they reveal a shrewd strategic retreat, carrying some civilians along and maintaining vigilance over those left behind.
Exploitation of local grievances
Al-Shabab recognizes that retaining control over territory is more demanding than seizing it, capitalizing on the government’s historical inability to secure newly captured areas.
While Al-Shabab is synonymous with violence and coercion, its engagement with civilians remains a critical yet underemphasized facet. The group meticulously tailors its engagement strategy to local circumstances, social divisions, and political intricacies. Given its dependency on clan politics and the absence of governmental presence, life under Al-Shabab’s rule varies, but it consistently exploits customary power structures to exert control.
Moreover, it exploits local grievances and benefits from a weakened central government, bolstering its legitimacy and support.
Through mechanisms like dispute resolution, taxation, and ideological indoctrination, Al-Shabab establishes a system that, despite its severity, is perceived as predictable and somewhat equitable. However, with limited alternatives due to the government’s absence, this perception of ‘fairness’ is pivotal in maintaining control against governmental encroachment.
The strategy of civilian bargaining further empowers communities to engage with Al-Shabab via their elders, offering a platform to voice concerns, seek assistance, and challenge decisions. This strategic negotiation fosters a sense of legitimacy, even if skewed toward Al-Shabab’s favor. Military pressure further molds these dynamics, prompting concessions during vulnerable phases and harsh rule during periods of supremacy.
“While the group has lost significant territory, Al-Shabab is playing the long game. When the government fails to fulfil its promises to retake communities, Al-Shabab has seized the opportunity to negotiate truces with disaffected clans. This tactic is not new; Al-Shabab has long employed peace deals with various communities and clans,” the report adds.
Immersed within local politics and customary governance, Al-Shabab thrives within its dominions. Local elites actively participate in the group’s governance, driven by personal and communal gains, leading clans to vie for Al-Shabab’s favor and resources. Effectively countering Al-Shabab necessitates acknowledging its deep-rooted influence and addressing the governance failures that birthed it.
The group’s manipulation of clan structures also sows seeds of potential conflict, setting the stage for competition once Al-Shabab’s influence wanes. While military action might be simpler, without a robust political, governance, and reconciliation strategy, enduring stability remains elusive.