JOWHAR (KAAB TV) – Since its inception in October 2016, the Hirshabelle State of Somalia has been plagued by chronic political instability, clan-based divisions, and deep-rooted administrative dysfunction. Formed through the union of the Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions, the state was hastily constructed by the Federal Government of Somalia to meet the timelines of the 2016–2017 indirect elections. However, this rushed process left unresolved grievances and a lack of consensus that continue to paralyze governance in the region.
A Union Without Consensus
From the beginning, the formation of Hirshabelle was met with resistance. Communities in the Hiran region strongly opposed being merged with Middle Shabelle, arguing that Hiran deserved to be a separate federal member state. Disputes over representation, power-sharing, and political identity were widespread, with various clans demanding greater influence and more parliamentary seats.
Despite these objections, the federal government went ahead with the formation of the state, prioritizing election schedules over inclusive political dialogue. This approach resulted in a fragile administration with no unified political foundation, unable to collect taxes effectively or assert authority across both regions.
The Guudlawe Presidency and Escalation of Tensions
Tensions reached new heights following the election of Ali Abdullahi Hussein “Guudlawe” as President of Hirshabelle in November 2020. His appointment sparked outrage among the Hawadle clan in Hiran, who claimed that a previous power-sharing agreement stipulated the presidency would be allocated to Hiran-based communities—particularly the Hawadle—for the first term.
According to some, this agreement was intended to be permanent. Others, including Guudlawe’s supporters from the Abgaal clan in Middle Shabelle, insisted it was a temporary arrangement valid only for four years. This fundamental disagreement has fueled an ongoing political deadlock and resentment in Hiran.
In response to Guudlawe’s election, former Somali army general Abukar Warsame “Huud” mobilized a militia known as the Hiran Salvation Council, calling for Hiran to secede and form its own administration. The group established control around Beledweyne and barred Hirshabelle officials from entering the city. As a result, Guudlawe could not visit Beledweyne until February 26, 2022—and only then under the protection of federal troops.
Core Disputes Undermining Stability
1. Dispute Over the Capital and Presidency
At the heart of Hirshabelle’s political dysfunction is the unresolved conflict over the location of the state capital and which community should hold the presidency. Initially, there was consideration to make Bulo-Burde the capital, but the idea was rejected. In a subsequent agreement mediated by the federal government in October 2016, Jowhar (in Middle Shabelle) was designated as the capital, while the presidency was to go to a Hawadle leader from Hiran.
However, this balance was disrupted in 2020 when the presidency shifted to a candidate from the Abgaal clan, causing widespread discontent in Hiran. Both communities have interpreted the 2016 agreement differently, with no legal framework or arbitration mechanism to resolve such disputes. This has bred mistrust and further weakened inter-regional cooperation.
2. Clan Representation and Institutional Fragmentation
Hirshabelle’s state institutions are riddled with disputes over clan representation. The allocation of 99 parliamentary seats has not been based on transparent or universally accepted criteria, leaving several clans feeling marginalized. In an attempt to appease different groups, the state now has the largest cabinet in the country—with 82 members—an unsustainable structure that undermines governance.
Leadership positions in key security and administrative agencies are also subject to clan-based competition rather than merit or qualifications, reducing the efficiency and professionalism of the state’s institutions. Without agreed-upon standards for civil service appointments, efforts to build a functioning bureaucracy remain hamstrung.
3. Al-Shabaab’s Continued Threat
Al-Shabaab’s presence in parts of Hirshabelle further complicates political reconciliation. Although military operations have reclaimed some territory, the militant group continues to operate in several rural areas, limiting the state’s ability to extend its authority and undermining efforts at institution-building.
The Role of the Federal Government
A recurring criticism from analysts and local leaders is the role of the federal government in exacerbating Hirshabelle’s political turmoil. Rather than facilitating an inclusive state-building process, Mogadishu prioritized electoral timelines over legitimate governance structures. The federal government’s interventions—especially in the 2020 presidential selection—are seen by many as unilateral and biased, further deepening divisions.
Economic Dysfunction and Revenue Disputes
Hirshabelle’s economic outlook is bleak. The state lacks a functional revenue collection system, primarily due to the administrative rift between Hiran and Middle Shabelle. Taxes collected in each region are controlled by the respective governors and are not submitted to the Hirshabelle Ministry of Finance, effectively rendering the state’s fiscal apparatus obsolete.
This lack of centralized revenue undermines any attempt at public service delivery, infrastructure development, or long-term planning.
Leadership Failure and Lack of Reconciliation
Participants in various local consultations and research studies have consistently pointed to the failure of successive Hirshabelle leaders to address the state’s fundamental political and social issues. Leadership has been characterized by dependency on federal backing rather than grassroots legitimacy or performance.
Clan rivalries over land, resources, and political positions continue to spark violence, particularly in rural areas. Cities like Beledweyne and Jowhar remain divided along clan lines, reflecting the lack of genuine reconciliation or dialogue. Instead of building inclusive political frameworks, actors on both sides appear locked in zero-sum power struggles.
The Path Forward: Toward a New Political Agreement
To rescue Hirshabelle from perpetual crisis, several steps are necessary:
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Inclusive Dialogue: A new political agreement must be brokered, involving all key stakeholders from both Hiran and Middle Shabelle. This process should be transparent, locally driven, and supported—not dictated—by the federal government.
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Clarification of Power-Sharing Rules: There must be a consensus on rotation or permanent allocation of leadership positions, as well as the status of the capital city.
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Institutional Reform: Transparent criteria for parliamentary representation, civil service appointments, and cabinet formation are essential to move away from patronage politics.
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Revenue Sharing Mechanism: A central system for revenue collection and budgeting must be implemented to ensure accountability and fiscal cohesion.
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Reconciliation Initiatives: Grassroots peacebuilding efforts should be scaled up to address community grievances and prevent clan-based violence.
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Counterinsurgency Coordination: Military efforts to root out Al-Shabaab must be aligned with political reconciliation to prevent the group from exploiting state weaknesses.
Hirshabelle remains a fragile state, torn between its foundational flaws, clan rivalries, and the absence of a binding political agreement. Without a sincere effort to renegotiate the terms of coexistence and governance within the state, Hirshabelle risks becoming a permanent fault line in Somalia’s federal project.
While military operations and federal interventions may temporarily stabilize the region, sustainable peace will only emerge from an inclusive, negotiated, and community-led political settlement.